2012 Map - The Starting Point

[pbrower2a]

I think a best case Obama scenario is 380-420

Much of america will not vote for a black man whos mother engadged in race-mixing with a Muslim African male. Oh noes!

420, I believe, is the maximum unless Texas figures in. Without adjusting for electoral votes by States,  I see (not adjusting for unpredicted reapportionment):

EV if :                                                                    EV if :

Obama                                                                 Obama                                                 
LOSES                                                                    WINS

   0                  District of Columbia                            3
   3                  Hawaii                                                 7
   7                  Rhode Island                                     10
                            ...
226                 Pennsylvania                                   247
247                 New Mexico                                     252
252                 Nevada                                            257
         
257                 Iowa                                                264
264                 New Hampshire                               268
268                 Virginia                                            281  VICTORY LINE
281                 Colorado                                         290
290                 Ohio                                                310
310                 Florida                                             337
337                 Missouri                                           348
348                 Arizona                                            358
358                 NE-02                                              359
359                 North Carolina                                 374
374                 Indiana                                            385
385                 Montana                                          388
388                 NE-01                                              389
391                 North Dakota                                  394
394                 South Dakota                                  397
397                 Texas                                              433
433                 Georgia                                           448
448                 Kentucky                                          456
456                 West Virginia                                   461
461                 Arkansas                                         467 
467                Tennessee                                      478
478                 Louisiana                                        487
487                 Nebraska at-large                           489
489                 Mississippi                                       495
505                 Kansas                                            501
.....
530                 Idaho                                              534                                       
534                 NE-03                                              535
535                 Wyoming                                         538  

Color code:
Forget it, Republicans!
Obama must win to have a chance (he won all states above this line)
Likely line of victory -- both candidates must win (Obama won it by 7%)
States that Obama won in 2008 beyond the victory line
States that Obama lost in 2008 but has a better chance to win in 2012 than some that he won in 2008
States that Obama won barely in 2008 and is more likely to lose than some that he lost in 2008
States that Obama wins in landslides under 450
States that Obama gets if he gets the "poor white" vote that Bill Clinton got
Forget it, Democrats!

This projection has its basis in  2008 results with my adjustments to reflect:

1.  Disappearances of third-party candidates who flipped an election (MO, NC)
2.  Presence and absence of Favorite Sons (AZ)
3.  Demographic shifts -- largely the growth of Latino voting blocs (AZ, TX)
4.  Disappearance of unusual circumstances in an election (IN)
5.  (I hope very little) Wishful thinking.

Make allowances for economic realities, wars, scandals, the nominees on the GOP ticket, and any anger at perceived "dirty dealing" toward a favored candidate.  We have three and a half years to go, of course.

Simple code: Obama must win everything in navy and blue, and one in orange or teal. Republicans must win everything in maroon, red, green, lime green, purple, teal, and orange. 

   
 

[You kip if you want to...]

I think, at this point, the 2012 map looks like this:

The states i'm not confident on there though are TX, AK, TN and KY. TX only goes to Obama counting on demographic changes and a weak Republican candidate. TN and KY go to Obama if he gets a massive landslide. In a landslide situaiton, they'd probably be the closest states. AK is Obama's if Palin doesn't get the nomination and he has a great first term, he was within 5%-10% over the summer before Palin was picked as McCain's running mate.

I've left MN, WI and MI grey since they were quite close until McCain basically gave up on them in September.

[Psychic Octopus]

McCain never gave up on Minnesota and Wisconsin. They gave up on him.