Poll has Bush up 6 in NC

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Saw it on Inside Politics

Even with the current state of the race, NC is still in the 5-6 range.  Interesting.  Vorlon?

[AuH2O]

No.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Oh I get it, polls can be close in NJ and CA, but touch a Bush state, and all you can come up with is "no".  Love that logic.  

[Sam Spade]

Simply put, here's the reason why NC is not considered close, while NJ is.  

Look at that poll:  Bush is getting 50% and Research 2000 normally doesn't push leaners.  Even getting all of the leaners Kerry wouldn't win, because 3rd parties do exist in NC.

Look at NJ:  Kerry is having trouble getting above 46% without leaners.  Bush is right around the same area.  That spells problems for Kerry.

[ATFFL]

Oh I get it, polls can be close in NJ and CA, but touch a Bush state, and all you can come up with is "no".  Love that logic.  

Many recent polls in NJ show it tight.  One in NC shows it tight, and not nearly as tight as NJ.

Also, look at how the campaigns are acting.  Edwards was originally going to make some more stops in NC.  Instead he is going to Jersey.

One poll is not a trend.  If more come out showing it close, an it has to be closer than 6% to be close, we can talk.

[Giant Saguaro]

Pretty much everything out there suggests that NC is not in play for Kerry. One poll shows Kerry down 6. As opposed to 10 or 12? A blip at best, IMO.

There are reasons why NJ is shown to be close. Generally, there's evidence to suggest that Kerry is in decline, 9/11 (terrorism), and the McGreevey situation. If people really believe Bush is better than Kerry in dealing with terrorism, as polls have indicated for a long time, then that right there is enough to bring the state closer because people HAVE to be highly concerned about it in NJ. I don't see how they can't be.

[AuH2O]

Oh I get it, polls can be close in NJ and CA, but touch a Bush state, and all you can come up with is "no".  Love that logic.  

You can believe Kerry is down 6 in NC. Fine by me.

I'll stick to reality.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

But Bush down only 5 in NY, that was really beliveable, never mind that a Kerry +20 poll has come out since.

[A18]

Hey, they could have passed an amendment requiring ownership of 1/5 of an acre of land to vote. Then him being down only 5 would be believable.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hey, they could have passed an amendment requiring ownership of 1/5 of an acre of land to vote. Then him being down only 5 would be believable.

Why do you hate Manhattan?

[A18]

I just hate cities

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I just hate cities

So does Bin Laden

[A18]

Bin Laden is probably working at 7/11 in NY as we speak.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Bin Laden is probably working at 7/11 in NY as we speak.

Oh, yeah, I'm sure that none of the millions of New Yorkers affected by 9/11 would have noticed.

[A18]

Some already beat the sh!t out of him. The only problem is, it wasn't Bin Laden.

[khirkhib]

Wow. That is scary Phillip.  Hate cities.  How do you feel about progress, multiculturalism, freedom of religion.  How wonder how much you and OBL have in common.

[Light Touch]

Some already beat the sh!t out of him. The only problem is, it wasn't Bin Laden.

!!!

*dies*

*laughs 'til he cries*

[Light Touch]

But Bush down only 5 in NY, that was really beliveable, never mind that a Kerry +20 poll has come out since.

My guess is that NY is about +12.

The "excitement" surrounding the +5 poll was due to a large number of polls showing big Bush momentum coming out of the convention.  NY/CA/IL have cooled off a bit and returned to more appropriate levels, but still, with lower margins than before the convention.

NC polls seem to vary between the +6 to +15 range.  The recent trend has been to skew a little back toward Kerry but not dramatically, like a +6 would indicate.  I think +9 is a reasonable ballpark.

[MODU]

I have my views towards "cities" as well.  While they have a lot of perks, such as localizing commerce and services, you lose a lot in regards to "living" which is experienced in the suburbs and rural areas of the nation.  As long as I can avoid it, I will not live "in" a city.

[Light Touch]

I have my views towards "cities" as well.  While they have a lot of perks, such as localizing commerce and services, you lose a lot in regards to "living" which is experienced in the suburbs and rural areas of the nation.  As long as I can avoid it, I will not live "in" a city.

Agreed.  I look forward to the days when I'm less active and can retire to my country home.

For now, I'll have to shoo away the addicts and schizophrenics from my stoop.