Obama/Biden vs. Paul/Lingle vs. Bayh/Bloomberg (2012)

[Historico]

Ok based on the results of the recent CPAC Straw Poll...Let's say Ol' Ron Paul decides to fight for the one last campaign and throw's hit hat in the ring early next year. Due to a steal strong Anti-Imcumbent feelings, Paul is able to capitlize on his young Grassroats supporters to win the nomination. He selects former Governor Lisa Lingle of Hawaii(Mainly as a slap to the President's face for nominated someone from his home state) as another major history making pick, as she is the first Jew to ever be nominated by either party.

On the Democratic side, after the GOP takeover of the House and Senate(Maybe not so much), The Party of No has pretty much stalled in major progressive domestic Reforms, but piecmal efforts on Health Care, and Global Warming reduction mainly due to Speaker Paul Ryan of Winsonsin. Refutted on Domestic, Barack turns an eye towards foriegn policy and proves to create a fairly successful legacy there with the full withrawl of troops from Iraq and a rollback of Al Queda in Afghanistan help improve his standings a litle. By Summer of 2010, the Unemployment rate has fallen to about 7 percent, but an ever looming deficit holds the 44th Potus' Approval Ratings  to about the Mid '40's.

Due to Obama's percieved loss pof popularity and Paul's unelectability(He'd be 77 by Convention time)...former Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, a moderate decides to throw his hat in the race. Largely drawing in Nonideological supporters from the TeaParty movements and other Deficit hawk voters. To balance out his appeal he picks Independent Mayor Mike Bloomberg of NYC as his running mate. Does this third way have a shot at winning? What will an electoral map look like?

[Bo]

Obama would win.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

Paul would win.

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

[justW353]

Hack map.

[rebeltarian]

Evan Bayh would siphen off votes from both the traditional Republican and Democratic bases.  The tea party nazis would show their true colors and refuse to support a genuine conservative.  Reagan Democrats, catholics, seniors, hispanics, etc. would also be attracted to the centrist/independent candidate.  Ron Paul would mobilize the libertarian west and even win over some authentic progressives with his anti-war policies and selection of a female running mate.  His strategy would rely on flipping California's 55 ev's to have a chance at pulling this one out.  President Obama would have to compound his support amongst Yellow Dogs and pray that the Bayh vote-siphen skews to his favor to hold down the big liberal states in the east and midwest.

 

[justW353]

Evan Bayh would siphen off votes from both the traditional Republican and Democratic bases.  The tea party nazis would show their true colors and refuse to support a genuine conservative.  Reagan Democrats, catholics, seniors, hispanics, etc. would also be attracted to the centrist/independent candidate.  Ron Paul would mobilize the libertarian west and even win over some authentic progressives with his anti-war policies and selection of a female running mate.  His strategy would rely on flipping California's 55 ev's to have a chance at pulling this one out.  President Obama would have to compound his support amongst Yellow Dogs and pray that the Bayh vote-siphen skews to his favor to hold down the big liberal states in the east and midwest.

 

Mack Hap

[Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl]

The only safe Obama state in this scenario is Illinois (+DC of course). Everything else is up for grabs.

[perdedor]

Obama/Biden - 50%
Paul/Lingle - 43%
Bayh/Bloomberg - 7%

Paul is a nutter and that would be made clear during a general campaign. It's largely as close as it is because some conservative Dems would flock to Bayh

[sentinel]

I would really like to see the impact of Bloomberg's money. Bayh/Bloomberg would not be a very charismatic ticket anyhow

[Historico]

Ok Here are my three Scenarios...

1. President Obama wins: I think the most plausible, despite Paul Don Quioxtesque support amongst young Republican Voters(He manages to split the Millenials with Obama) and Bloomberg's money. Most voters would feel that Bayh really doesn't have the Charisma to rival Obama and Paul's advanced age would be to much of an issue....I still think it would be pretty narrow, and Bayh may be able to gain electoral votes.

Barack Obama/Joseph Biden: 281 Electoral Votes (45%)
Ronald E. Paul/Linda Lingle: 235 Electoral Votes (35%)
Birch E. Bayh III/Michael Bloomberg: 22 Electoral Votes(20%)

2. Paul Wins: Ok basically for this to happen Bayh/Bloomberg is going to have to perform spectacularly especially enough to weaken his support in the Rust belt and throw some states to the Doctor. I also think Paul could beat both Obama and Bayh in a debates, so who knows...But it will be hella close

Ronald E. Paul/Linda Lingle: 271 Electoral Votes (36%)
Barack Obama/Joseph Biden: 235 Electoral Votes (34%)
Birch E. Bayh/Michael Bloomberg: 32 Electoral Votes (30%)

3. Bayh Wins: Itll be tough...but the Democrats are going to have to implode and Bayh is going to have to build a coalition of Moderate Voters from both sides of the Isle, and wins over Blue Collar Whites in his home base of the Rust Belt.

Birch E. Bayh III/Michael Bloomberg: 272 Electoral Votes (37%)
Barack Obama/Joseph Biden: 155 Electoral Votes (35%)
Ronald E. Paul/Linda Lingle: 111 Electoral Votes (28%)

[SPC]

People posting an Obama victory seem to forget that third-party candidacies typically hurt the incumbent.