Mason-Dixon GA, IA, MO: Mixed Results

[Rowan]

IA
Obama 51%
McCain 40%

GA
McCain 49%
Obama 43%

MO
McCain 46%
Obama 45%

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27386775/

[Ronnie]

I'm pleased.  IA is obviously lost, but I think MO will be down to the wire.

[Ty440]

But, But But But But  the NY Times poll says Obama is up nationally by 14 points. The great bellweathers  like MO and OH should be in the bag right?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

But, But But But But  the NY Times poll says Obama is up nationally by 14 points. The great bellweathers  like MO and OH should be in the bag right?

Don't be a troll.

Good results, actually; MO is basically even, and GA being only +6 might be good for Martin.

[Ronnie]

But, But But But But  the NY Times poll says Obama is up nationally by 14 points. The great bellweathers  like MO and OH should be in the bag right?

C'mon man, don't exaggerate.  Obama is obviously ahead by 8 points or so, and seems extremely stable at around that margin.  I wouldn't say MO and OH are "in the bag", but they surely seem pretty likely for him if the national margin holds.

[Ty440]

Missouri is THE bellweather state. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1904 except one - in 1956 inexplicably when the rest of the country was going for Eisenhower and MO went for Stevenson.

Obama is bucking some serious history if he should lose MO, and win the election.

[Wall St. Wiz]

But, But But But But  the NY Times poll says Obama is up nationally by 14 points. The great bellweathers  like MO and OH should be in the bag right?

C'mon man, don't exaggerate.  Obama is obviously ahead by 8 points or so, and seems extremely stable at around that margin.  I wouldn't say MO and OH are "in the bag", but they surely seem pretty likely for him if the national margin holds.

Obama is definitely ahead but by 8, I don't know.  The state polling doesn't seem to reflect that.  If you look at recent state polls in OH, FL, NC, NH, and MO from two of the best firms, Rasmussen and MD, McCain is running much stronger then -8.

I am starting to wonder if Obama is going to win by 6-8 in the PV but only swing IA, NV, NM, CO, and VA and not even get to 300 EV's.

[Wiz in Wis]

Missouri may have traditionally been a bellweather, but it clearly has swung to the R's over the past few cycles. If Obama wins it, it wont be by the national average. Same could be said of Ohio. That Obama is winning IA by a bigger margin than McCain is winning GA actually does suggest a pretty big national lead. To suggest otherwise is hackery.

[Iosif]

Missouri is THE bellweather state. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1904 except one - in 1956 inexplicably when the rest of the country was going for Eisenhower and MO went for Stevenson.

Obama is bucking some serious history if he should lose MO, and win the election.

Stop living in the past, this election isn't like any other. Obama can and probably will win the election without Missouri.

[Speed of Sound]

Missouri is THE bellweather state. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1904 except one - in 1956 inexplicably when the rest of the country was going for Eisenhower and MO went for Stevenson.

Obama is bucking some serious history if he should lose MO, and win the election.

Yeah, but a POW Republican nominee has never (ever!) beat an African American Democratic nominee during a year more than half way through a decade when November starts on a Saturday. McCain is bucking some serious history!

[Platypus]

No Republican has EVER won without Ohio.

Another useless fact, but one that suits my side! Fun!

[Democratic Hawk]

Unless something happens to fundamentally shift the dynamics of Election 2008 towards McCain, MO could be a nail-biter much like the Democratic primary was

Many undecideds could be waiting to see if there is some great unknown re-Obama to emerge before breaking in his favor and were that to happen, nationally, more than MO will elude McCain

Dave

[Tender Branson]

They overpolled Clinton by 8 in MO.

So, even the beloved Mason-Dixon isn't right all the time.

[Sam Spade]

But, But But But But  the NY Times poll says Obama is up nationally by 14 points. The great bellweathers  like MO and OH should be in the bag right?

C'mon man, don't exaggerate.  Obama is obviously ahead by 8 points or so, and seems extremely stable at around that margin.  I wouldn't say MO and OH are "in the bag", but they surely seem pretty likely for him if the national margin holds.

Obama is definitely ahead but by 8, I don't know.  The state polling doesn't seem to reflect that.  If you look at recent state polls in OH, FL, NC, NH, and MO from two of the best firms, Rasmussen and MD, McCain is running much stronger then -8.

I am starting to wonder if Obama is going to win by 6-8 in the PV but only swing IA, NV, NM, CO, and VA and not even get to 300 EV's.

The state polling that I trust has consistently over the past couple of weeks, in my view, shown a 4-6 point race, presuming of course, that the undecideds break evenly.  fwiw.

[Brittain33]

Missouri is THE bellweather state. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1904 except one - in 1956 inexplicably when the rest of the country was going for Eisenhower and MO went for Stevenson.

Obama is bucking some serious history if he should lose MO, and win the election.

If Gore got 600 more votes in Florida, all of that history about Missouri would have gone poof.

Note that the only time Missouri bucked the trend and voted for the loser, it was for a candidate from Illinois.

[TheGlobalizer]

Missouri is THE bellweather state. It has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1904 except one - in 1956 inexplicably when the rest of the country was going for Eisenhower and MO went for Stevenson.

Obama is bucking some serious history if he should lose MO, and win the election.

Maybe, but I'm predicting that happens this time.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entries:

GA: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1320081023009

IA: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=1920081023009

MO: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=2920081023009

[classical liberal]

But, But But But But  the NY Times poll says Obama is up nationally by 14 points. The great bellweathers  like MO and OH should be in the bag right?

C'mon man, don't exaggerate.  Obama is obviously ahead by 8 points or so, and seems extremely stable at around that margin.  I wouldn't say MO and OH are "in the bag", but they surely seem pretty likely for him if the national margin holds.

Obama is definitely ahead but by 8, I don't know.  The state polling doesn't seem to reflect that.  If you look at recent state polls in OH, FL, NC, NH, and MO from two of the best firms, Rasmussen and MD, McCain is running much stronger then -8.

I am starting to wonder if Obama is going to win by 6-8 in the PV but only swing IA, NV, NM, CO, and VA and not even get to 300 EV's.

The state polling that I trust has consistently over the past couple of weeks, in my view, shown a 4-6 point race, presuming of course, that the undecideds break evenly.  fwiw.

I find it exceedingly unlikely that this will be the case.  Either those who are still undecided are undecided between voting for McCain and staying home, in which case they should break overwhelmingly to McCain, or they are undecided between the risky Obama and the safe McCain, in which case they will probably break slightly to Obama when the election comes before the other shoe drops about Obama.  I predict a combination of both effects netting a skew towards McCain.  At the end of the day it is unlikely that a presidential candidate can break 51% of the NPV.

[HardRCafé]

Yeah, but a POW Republican nominee has never (ever!) beat an African American Democratic nominee during a year more than half way through a decade when November starts on a Saturday. McCain is bucking some serious history!

I bow before you, sir.