Will McCain win Pennsylvania?

[TheGlobalizer]

When you are predicting a margin closer than even the best poll for McCain in PA, well that is generally going to be laughed off...

When you base your predictions solely on polling, your viewpoint should generally be laughed off, too.

[Keystone Phil]

Who do all PA threads descend into a bitchfest from Phil?

Because I don't bow down to dopes such as yourself and the other trolls. I know you hate it that this place can't be a hack echo chamber all the time but get over it.

[Smash255]

When you are predicting a margin closer than even the best poll for McCain in PA, well that is generally going to be laughed off...

When you base your predictions solely on polling, your viewpoint should generally be laughed off, too.

Which is something I haven't done......  However, when you disregard any and all polling because it shows something different from your previous beliefs.....

[Politico]

If it wasn't for JJ and Phil, and their "no surrender" denial despite all evidence to the contrary, we wouldn't even be talking about PA. It's a state that has gone to Democrats each of the past four elections. In a year that overwhelmingly favors the Democrats, more so than perhaps any year since 1964, this state is clearly going to be in Obama's column.

When you're talking about whether or not the Democrat will carry North Carolina and Virginia about a week before the election, it's quite clear that Pennsylvania is going to the Democrat.

[TheGlobalizer]

When you are predicting a margin closer than even the best poll for McCain in PA, well that is generally going to be laughed off...

When you base your predictions solely on polling, your viewpoint should generally be laughed off, too.

Which is something I haven't done......  However, when you disregard any and all polling because it shows something different from your previous beliefs.....

Which is why I think Obama will win PA.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

No, Obama is going to win by about 9. 

[Keystone Phil]

If it wasn't for JJ and Phil, and their "no surrender" denial despite all evidence to the contrary, we wouldn't even be talking about PA. It's a state that has gone to Democrats each of the past four elections. In a year that overwhelmingly favors the Democrats, more so than perhaps any year since 1964, this state is clearly going to be in Obama's column.

I know, I know...it must suck that this place isn't full of "yes" men for The Cause.

I wish I could have the simplistic thinking that you have, Politico. "It's such a Democratic year, Democrats always win in PA so the state is clearly for Obama." 

Anyway, more proof of your ignorance. I simply insist that something could still happen and that your beloved candidate won't win here by double digits. I have him winning here by four to five points though.

[Politico]

If it wasn't for JJ and Phil, and their "no surrender" denial despite all evidence to the contrary, we wouldn't even be talking about PA. It's a state that has gone to Democrats each of the past four elections. In a year that overwhelmingly favors the Democrats, more so than perhaps any year since 1964, this state is clearly going to be in Obama's column.

I know, I know...it must suck that this place isn't full of "yes" men for The Cause.

I wish I could have the simplistic thinking that you have, Politico. "It's such a Democratic year, Democrats always win in PA so the state is clearly for Obama." 

Anyway, more proof of your ignorance. I simply insist that something could still happen and that your beloved candidate won't win here by double digits. I have him winning here by four to five points though.

A win is a win, no matter how ugly. I won't be surprised by a five point victory in PA any more than a ten point victory in PA. It likely will not be any closer than five points, though.

[Iosif]

The funny thing is, once Obama smashes McCain in PA in 8 days time Phil will bitch everytime someone points out that he was wrong and will call everybody hackish trolls.

Then in 2 years times he'll make another outlandish prediction about PA based purely on blind partisan optism and the cycle will repeat itself.

[DownWithTheLeft]

PA is a state where I expect polls to be far off.  Especially when Obama's internals told him it was a 2 point race.  I think 2 pts is right, I'm just not sure which way its going

[Keystone Phil]

The funny thing is, once Obama smashes McCain in PA in 8 days time Phil will bitch everytime someone points out that he was wrong and will call everybody hackish trolls.

The point is that I always admit that I was wrong after the fact. I "bitch" because people can't stop obsessing over it. It's insanely childish. Now if I was whining about how the election was stolen or just never admitted that I was wrong, then people would have a reason to point out that I was being a sore loser or something.

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Grow up, child.

[J. J.]

The funny thing is, once Obama smashes McCain in PA in 8 days time Phil will bitch everytime someone points out that he was wrong and will call everybody hackish trolls.

Then in 2 years times he'll make another outlandish prediction about PA based purely on blind partisan optism and the cycle will repeat itself.

I made an initial prediction (in September) of PA for Obama at +1.5, and I've been told that it would be closer to 13.  I wonder.

[Keystone Phil]

And, again, I don't know what I'm "wrong" about. I'm predicting an Obama win here (as of now). I'm just saying that there are factors that are still present that don't guarantee Obama a victory.