Could Obama have won GA in 2008?
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June 16, 2024, 09:24:40 AM
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  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Could Obama have won GA in 2008?
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Author Topic: Could Obama have won GA in 2008?  (Read 663 times)
GAinDC
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« on: April 12, 2024, 09:39:38 AM »

Early in the campaign, he tested the waters here but ultimately decided to focus on winning other states.

Knowing now that Obama only lost GA by 5 points with no investment, and that GA continued to trend leftward, could he have won it if he actually made a real play for it?
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #1 on: April 24, 2024, 10:40:20 PM »

He could have gotten it a bit closer, but demographically I doubt he could have won the state. Obama already won every state he could have except Missouri and maybe Montana.
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Agafin
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« Reply #2 on: April 25, 2024, 10:39:23 AM »

5% is not a small margin to overcome for an inelastic southern state. The state had record black turnout and he effectively won all of them (97% or so I believe). There wasn't really much higher he could have gone.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #3 on: April 25, 2024, 12:31:27 PM »

Maybe with a southern VP and some covered campaining attacking McCain from his right.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #4 on: April 25, 2024, 05:32:29 PM »

Had McCain picked Lieberman for VP, its possible enough social conservatives stay home to flip Goergia
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quesaisje
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« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2024, 11:04:59 AM »

Obama achieved huge swings in favorable parts of the state, of which the Atlanta metro counties were just the crown jewel. He did this without bleeding too much support even in the least favorable rural areas. McCain still won by a decent margin.

The coalition that has since made the state winnable simply wasn't there yet in sufficient numbers to win, and Obama did about as well as he could with what was left of the old one.
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Samof94
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2024, 03:24:30 PM »

Probably not.  This isn't the 2020s.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2024, 04:34:40 PM »

No, not with the way GA was in 2008. If it was 2016 GA in terms of demographics, then he would've definitely won it in a similar NPV landslide. But in 2008 it definitely wasn't ready to start voting Dem.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: June 11, 2024, 04:43:58 PM »

Fun fact: Every time a Democrat defeated an incumbent President, they won GA. Actually every time a Democratic incumbent lost they also won GA except for 1840.
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