Democracy Corps (D) (10/1-10/5) 1000 LV; Obama-49% (NC) McCain-46% (+1)

[Thomas Jackson]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor100508fq13_pb.pdf

McCain +1 From last week.

[Democratic Hawk]

What do you want me to do like throw a party?

I don't think you can write off staid ol' decrepit (and that's just his politics) Johnny Mac and Saintly Sarah yet

Dave

[Eraserhead]

I wonder if they are actually trying to understate Obama's lead so that people don't become apathetic. It wouldn't surprise me.

[Democratic Hawk]

I wonder if they are actually trying to understate Obama's lead so that people don't become apathetic. It wouldn't surprise me.

Well apathy and signs of hubris are the last things Obama needs. It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings

Dave

[Thomas Jackson]

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These results virtually mirror last week's numbers and the ipsos/mcclatchey numbers.

Posters last week were telling me how great a pollster Democracy Corps was, now they are fudging the numbers for McCain?!?

It's official, the internet has made us dumber.

The barbarians are at the gates.

[ucscgaldamez]

Well, let's look at the internals. They undersampled young voters and oversampled older voters (at least in my opinion).  It is also interesting to know that among those who were interviewed 48% voted for Bush, 45% voted for Kerry in 2004. Yet, Obama leads McCain 49-46%. That is quite significant. Only 9% of Latinos and 11% African Americans.

The 18-29 age group comprised only 14% of likely voters, and 21% are 65+ (in 2004 exit polls, this group made up 16% of voters).

[Eraserhead]

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These results virtually mirror last week's numbers and the ipsos/mcclatchey numbers.

Posters last week were telling me how great a pollster Democracy Corps was, now they are fudging the numbers for McCain?!?

It's official, the internet has made us dumber.

The barbarians are at the gates.

They are a decent pollster but they have an agenda, fella.

Also why would anyone care about them mirroring a McClatchy poll from a week ago?

[Thomas Jackson]

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An agenda to help McCain?

[ucscgaldamez]

No!! To keep it competitive. They sure don't want Dems to feel that this election is over and not show up on election day.

[Thomas Jackson]

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The internals actually work out well for the poll to be accurate. Scroll through them, nothing looks extremely out of wack. If fact, you pointing to the Bush - Kerry Numbers actually helps the polls validity. Bush won the 2004 election  by 2 points, about the same as the poll results. If anything, the Poll oversamples Democrats just a bit, (Though it is a Democrat Polling firm.)

If all Obama has is the "Yuf Votez!" then he is in much bigger trouble than you all realize. Old people vote in massive numbers. They will turn out for this election, just like they always do.

You and Obama had better hope that the "Yuf" do this time what they have never done before.

[Kalimantan]

Posters last week were telling me how great a pollster Democracy Corps was, now they are fudging the numbers for McCain?!?

No, posters were saying that they are an excellent pollster, but they will occasionally release bogus numbers that help their cause - because their ultimate aim is to get Democrats elected. (A most noble cause if I may say so).

Looks like one of those here. Of course the internals look good, thats half the point

[ucscgaldamez]

Well, we'll see. At this point, who knows what will happen. I did call all my "Yuf" friends to register. They had already done so! That was quite a surprise. They really don't care about politics, yet they registered. I told them if I should remind them to vote, all 5 said, no call is needed. Will it be enough for Obama to win? Who knows. Win or lose, it will be fun to find out.

Life moves on even with a McCain win.

[Alcon]

Sample of voters Bush +3?

Either an odd sample, or more generous than I expected.

DC's a good pollster, but again ghostmonkey, what's your point?  We dismiss all other polls (state, national, etc.) and accept this one because it's a good pollster?  And then adjust it down a few points for being a Dem firm?

Eh...no.  It's another data point.

[ucscgaldamez]

It is also interesting to see Republicans getting excited about a poll showing Obama up by 3. That's how bad things are going right now.

[Stranger in a strange land]

wait, wasn't there supposed to be a huge bounce from Palin not tanking the debate?