CNN/Time battleground state polling: McCain in big trouble
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Author Topic: CNN/Time battleground state polling: McCain in big trouble  (Read 1091 times)
The Ex-Factor
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« on: October 01, 2008, 03:16:41 PM »
Sorry for the lack of detail. Only on Mark Halperin's's blog so far:

From latest TIME/CNN state polls:
FLORIDA: Obama 51, McCain 47
MINNESOTA: Obama 54, McCain 43
MISSOURI: Obama 49, McCain 48
NEVADA: Obama 51, McCain 47
VIRGINIA: Obama 53, McCain 44

Dates conducted: Sept. 28-30. Error margin: Ranges from 3.5 to 4 points.

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/01/more-data-shows-obama-battleground-strength/
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exopolitician
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2008, 03:17:20 PM »
lol Minnesota a "battleground state"
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2008, 03:20:25 PM »
Damn, those are pretty... but considering the source I'd take them with a grain of salt (or maybe a pound).
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2008, 03:27:09 PM »
well, when your down by about 6 points nationally, your numbers in the battleground states aren't going to be good.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2008, 03:27:36 PM »

I never thought I'd see a poll like that in a semi-competitive race, even from a B-grade pollster.
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King
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2008, 03:57:54 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on October 01, 2008, 03:27:36 PM

I never thought I'd see a poll like that in a semi-competitive race, even from a B-grade pollster.

And in October no less.
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Lunar
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2008, 04:24:41 PM »
BSmith:

An interesting detail from the new round of CNN/Time state polls: In almost every case, the shift from a two-way to a four-way race draws more support from McCain than from Obama. Even Nader and McKinney votes seem to be coming out of McCain's number.

Riddle me that.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2008, 04:54:35 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on October 01, 2008, 04:24:41 PM
BSmith:

An interesting detail from the new round of CNN/Time state polls: In almost every case, the shift from a two-way to a four-way race draws more support from McCain than from Obama. Even Nader and McKinney votes seem to be coming out of McCain's number.

Riddle me that.
Racists, probably. Or PUMAs. But I repeat myself.
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2008, 04:55:16 PM »
Oh shush, it's probably just indicative of McCain's low level of enthusiasm right now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2008, 05:02:48 PM »
Quote from: Lunar on October 01, 2008, 04:55:16 PM
Oh shush, it's probably just indicative of McCain's low level of enthusiasm right now.
Not really. Obama's been doing better when other candidates are included for most of the election now. It's hardly a recent thing. And I would think that, for a Democrat who (for some reason) does not want to vote for Obama, Nader or McKinney or Barr would be a more palatable choice than McCain.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2008, 05:10:14 PM »
Internals?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2008, 06:12:11 PM »
CNN and Time polls are known to be left leaning.  I'll stay on my toes. 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2008, 11:45:10 PM »
It's good to see that NV and MO are now also seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

Too bad it's CNN/Time ...
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big bad fab
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2008, 02:36:50 AM »
But NV numbers aren't very good for Obama, considering his bounce in FL, VA, NC, PA and OH.

Maybe the Palin effect is real in NV (and a bit in CO, which should be Obama +8 now....), as it was in Montana and ND (no more potential swing states).

And maybe the Palin effect is also real in FL, VA and NC, but in a negative way for GOP.
Next NH polls should be bad for McCain.
Rockefeller Republicans, moderate and independent voters from the East coast seem to be lost.
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