IA-Research2000: Obama up by double-digits

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 53%
McCain - 39%

The poll was conducted Sept. 15-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/09/21/news/local/doc48d5d7d0b32a5478622581.txt?sPos=2

[Sam Spade]

What's strange is that McCain and Obama are still advertising here.  At least imo.  Or maybe the polling sucks.  We'll find out soon enough.

[Nym90]

What's strange is that McCain and Obama are still advertising here.  At least imo.  Or maybe the polling sucks.  We'll find out soon enough.

It wouldn't look good for McCain to completely pull out of a state that voted for Bush in 2004. But yeah, Iowa is not in play this year.

[Zarn]

What's strange is that McCain and Obama are still advertising here.  At least imo.  Or maybe the polling sucks.  We'll find out soon enough.

It wouldn't look good for McCain to completely pull out of a state that voted for Bush in 2004. But yeah, Iowa is not in play this year.

Not really. McCain and Bush aren't the same person. McCain will play better than some states than Bush, and Bush played better in others. Both being Republicans would not mattter.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

We get it. Iowa is not in play this year. No need to have 200 polls coming out of it.

[Ronnie]

I don't care if Obama is up by 30% or 1% in IA.  He's going to win the state and that's that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't care if Obama is up by 30% or 1% in IA.  He's going to win the state and that's that.

And he's going to win the white vote there too.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

IOWA PRESIDENT -
53% (D) Obama
45% (R) McCain

[Ronnie]

I don't care if Obama is up by 30% or 1% in IA.  He's going to win the state and that's that.

And he's going to win the white vote there too.

When did I say he wouldn't?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't care if Obama is up by 30% or 1% in IA.  He's going to win the state and that's that.

And he's going to win the white vote there too.

When did I say he wouldn't?

I bet whites in Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Oregon will vote for McCain.

Other than that, your map is right.

[Firefly]

I don't care if Obama is up by 30% or 1% in IA.  He's going to win the state and that's that.

And he's going to win the white vote there too.

When did I say he wouldn't?

I bet whites in Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Oregon will vote for McCain.

Other than that, your map is right.

Burn.

[Ronnie]

I don't care if Obama is up by 30% or 1% in IA.  He's going to win the state and that's that.

And he's going to win the white vote there too.

When did I say he wouldn't?

I bet whites in Wisconsin, Iowa, and even Oregon will vote for McCain.

Other than that, your map is right.

Ok, I stand corrected for Iowa.  Maybe whites in Oregon and Wisconsin will vote for McCain, depending how well he does overall.

[auburntiger]

This is strange for Iowa that not one poll, NOT ONE poll has shown McCain leading Obama even by 1% margin. How can a state that voted for Bush in 2004 suddenly be out of play?? Have demographics in Iowa changed THAT much in 4 years??

[War on Want]

This is strange for Iowa that not one poll, NOT ONE poll has shown McCain leading Obama even by 1% margin. How can a state that voted for Bush in 2004 suddenly be out of play?? Have demographics in Iowa changed THAT much in 4 years??

It isn't demographics it is McCain.

[auburntiger]

Well if McCain is THAT different from Bush, that should be a good thing for him nationwide. Not that this is going to be 1988 all over again, but it seems Iowa's voting patterns from that year are repeating this year, at time when McCain is polling better in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennslvania, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Washington...all states John Kerry won.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well if McCain is THAT different from Bush, that should be a good thing for him nationwide.

I don't think McCain being anti-ethanol is going to be such an issue nationwide.

It's also the circumstances. When the economy is the main issue, Iowa NEVER votes for Republicans. It's also one of the most relatively dovish states in comparison to its partisanship, which why McCain was running so badly there to begin with.

[auburntiger]

Well if McCain is THAT different from Bush, that should be a good thing for him nationwide.

I don't think McCain being anti-ethanol is going to be such an issue nationwide.

It's also the circumstances. When the economy is the main issue, Iowa NEVER votes for Republicans. It's also one of the most relatively dovish states in comparison to its partisanship, which why McCain was running so badly there to begin with.

Point taken. Also, another thing I'm surprised at as far as state polling is the stark differences in MIssouri and Iowa this year.