NC: Insider Advantage: McCain Leads NC by 1.7%

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Insider Advantage on 2008-08-19

Summary: D: 42.8%, R: 44.5%, U: 5.4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

2. If the election were held today would you vote for…

Party Race Gender Age

Total

Republican

Democrat

Independent

Libertarian

White Black

Hispanic

Other Male Female 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+

(Base) (614) (246) (246) (104) (12) (454) (129) (25) (6) (289) (325) (92) (209) (184) (129)

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

McCain 44.5 90.3 6.8 28.2 27.6 54.3 17.0 13.6 24.9 44.6 44.5 27.2 53.2 36.5 54.3

Obama 42.8 2.1 86.5 40.5 10.2 32.5 74.6 65.3 45.8 42.0 43.6 57.2 36.5 51.5 30.4

Barr 5.2 4.1 1.5 8.8 59.3 5.2 5.0 .0 9.9 5.5 4.6 10.6 5.2 3.0 3.4

Nader .9 .0 1.4 2.0 .0 1.2 .0 .8 .0 .9 .4 .8 .5 .5 .7

Other 1.2 .0 .5 5.6 .0 .6 .0 17.4 .0 1.9 1.0 4.2 .3 .8 2.4

Undecided 5.4 3.4 3.3 14.9 2.9 6.2 3.4 2.9 19.4 5.2 6.0 .0 4.3 7.7 8.8

[Sam Spade]

Oh, the humanity! (see internals)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Josh must be thrilled.

[Eraserhead]

Barr FTW. Carl will be pleased.

[Sam Spade]

Barr FTW. Carl will be pleased.

That's merely the cherry on top of the icing.  There's plenty more goodies in this one that are *much* more tantalizing (i.e. amusing) - and show the true joke nature of this poll (as well as anything done by Insider Advantage.

Come on Alcon - you know you want to post...

[Alcon]

Barr FTW. Carl will be pleased.

That's merely the cherry on top of the icing.  There's plenty more goodies in this one that are *much* more tantalizing (i.e. amusing) - and show the true joke nature of this poll (as well as anything done by Insider Advantage.

Come on Alcon - you know you want to post...

All I have to say:

Clearly, with a black sample splitting only 75-17 for Obama, he's actually ahead.  But is he really?

My thinking:  All white people will vote Libertarian when they notice that John McCain talks Yankee, and Bob Barr is just as old and spitty.  Insider Advantage will predict this using their Numbers 2.0 technology.  This is the same incredible technology they used to make the Other sample (n=6) in this poll be 5.9% Libertarian, which was mathematically impossible with Numbers 1.0.

In conclusion, safe Hagen.

[Sam Spade]

The 41-41 Dem/GOP sample with almost no one switching sides is particularly amusing, from a North Carolina perspective too.

[Alcon]

The 41-41 Dem/GOP sample with almost no one switching sides is particularly amusing, from a North Carolina perspective too.

41-41 Dem/GOP is totally fine for North Carolina, maybe a bit on the GOP side, actually.

But, yeah.  North Carolina could logically have fewer mutineers than some other southern states.  Its working-class white base (textile workers) otherwise predisposed to Democratic voting, are actually historically GOP.  On the other hand, it's also got Appalachianers.  Plus, Bush pulled 16% of Dems in 2004 and Kerry 4% of Republicans.  The latter number could probably rise some, but it's too big of a gap to essentially even out.

This poll isn't internally totally nuts (MoE accounted for, it's plausible in a stretch) but it's very probably incorrect by at least a few points.

[Lunar]

The poll isn't crazy if you consider IA's tendencies.  They tend to show things, what, +4% in favor of Obama compared to other polls in North Carolina and Georgia?