Indiana

[War on Want]

Yep, let's disscuss the main reasons why this state is so much closer this time around, which groups have swung to Obama, which have not and demographic trends.

[Erc]

This thread seems to make this discussion purely academic.

[Sbane]

Yes Mccain will win it by 10 points because Obama does better with WASPs but obviously that is not enough to swing a state 20 points.

[Lunar]

FiveThirtyEight just did a crazy write-up for Indiana.  I clicked on this thread expecting the thread to be on their article posted today:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/road-to-270-indiana.html

PERHAPS NO STATE better embodies the difference in philosophy between the McCain and Obama campaigns than Indiana. For Obama, it represents a chance to rewrite the conventional wisdom and redraw the map: Indiana has gone Democratic just once in the past 15 elections, but Obama is serious about winning it, with intentions of opening as many as 30 field offices in the state. McCain, meanwhile, is acting as though he is calling a bluff; his campaign has not been advertising there, nor has it devoted any resources to the ground game. What gives each campaign such confidence about their prospects?




What McCain Has Going For Him

History. Not only has Indiana voted Democratic just once since World War II, but it has also voted more Republican than the nation as a whole in each of those elections. Indiana voters are moderate on pocketbook issues, but conservatives on cultural ones, and as of 2004, the Republicans had a 14-point advantage in party identification. Indiana has a Republican governor who will probably win re-election, and Republicans control 33 of Indiana's 50 seats in the State Senate. Indiana also has one of the nation's toughest voter ID laws, which has been upheld in the face of court challenges. In addition, its polls close early, by 6 PM local time, which tends to limit participation, especially among shift workers. Indiana is among the top states in the country in vehicle miles per capita, so issues like the gas tax could prove to be an effective wedge.

What Obama Has Going For Him

A lot of little things, which might add up to a big thing. Indiana has the most manufacturing-intensive economy in the country, with 18 percent of its jobs in the sector; Illinois-based unions are used to working its territory. Approximately 20-25 percent of the state is in the Chicago media market, and Obama overperford in the Northern portion of the state during the Democratic primaries. Indiana has several major colleges and universities, and an above-average number of young voters. Obama has outfundraised McCain in Indiana better than 2:1. The Bayh brand name remains extremely powerful in the state, and Evan Bayh can be an effective surrogate, whether or not he is Obama's vice president. Obama has a head start, having focused intensely on the state during the primaries, and essentially keeping his organization intact since then.

What To Watch For

Democrats have not made a serious effort to compete in Indiana since at least 1988, when Dan Quayle was George Bush's VP nominee and effective cordoned the state off to Michael Dukakis. And since the state has usually held a late primary, it had not gotten much attention during the nomination process.

The essential question then is whether there has been some sort of latent Democratic vote in Indiana that the Democrats simply haven't bothered to fight for. Indiana has generally had one of the lowest turnout rates in the country, which might be a consequence of its early poll closing times, but might also reflect the apathy caused by the lack of attention paid to it. That alone might not be enough to make the state competitive. But when coupled with the fact that the Democratic nominee is a Midwesterner from a neighboring state, that the state's blue-collar economy is really struggling, and that one campaign is invested in the state when the other isn't, you might have the right mix of circumstances necessary to tip the state.

Geographically, Obama will need to carry Marion County (Indianapolis) -- which John Kerry won by just 2 points -- by perhaps as many as 25-30. He will have to do even better than that in the Northwest suburbs. And he will have to hold his own in the Northeast portion of the state -- losing by not more than 5 or 10 points -- while keeping Southern Indiana to within 20. If he is able to accomplish substantially all of those things, the math will be there for him.

[Sbane]

Winning Marion by 25-30 points??LOL perhaps this is why Obama has wisely chosen not to compete here.

[Torie]

OK, just how different is Ohio from Indiana?  Why would Indiana make a big more, and not Ohio?  I don' buy the Chicago media market stuff.

[War on Want]

OK, just how different is Ohio from Indiana?  Why would Indiana make a big more, and not Ohio?  I don' buy the Chicago media market stuff.

Exactly there has to be a bigger explanation for why Indiana would shift so much compared to other states.

[Alcon]

I'm going to go on a not-so-ridiculous limb here, and say that Obama is down by at least 5, probably close to 10.

Don't shoot the messengererer.

[The Ex-Factor]

That Starbucks: Walmart variable has to be the most unique one ever used in an electoral projection I've ever seen.

[Lunar]

I'm going to go on a not-so-ridiculous limb here, and say that Obama is down by at least 5, probably close to 10.

Don't shoot the messengererer.

Obama is running a different ad in Indiana than the rest of the states.  Doesn't mean that he's given up on it.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_Fix_the_economy.html#comments

I would say that giving a state its own television commercial, something Obama has yet to do until this, would indicate the opposite that they have given up on this.

[Alcon]

I'm going to go on a not-so-ridiculous limb here, and say that Obama is down by at least 5, probably close to 10.

Don't shoot the messengererer.

Obama is running a different ad in Indiana than the rest of the states.  Doesn't mean that he's given up on it.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_Fix_the_economy.html#comments

I would say that giving a state its own television commercial, something Obama has yet to do until this, would indicate the opposite that they have given up on this.

He's runnin' against the tides on this one, I'd say, even more than in Montana, the Dakotas, maybe even Alaska.  Then again, it's a fairly big prize (why do so many people live in Indiana?), and he might be able to do well with a clever ad buy strategy...or a clever add Bayh strategy.  Har har har.

See, you can tell I was just waiting to shoehorn that one in.

[Lunar]

Copyright that quick.

He also filmed a commercial with Bayh when he was in Elkhorn, so there's another customized commercial coming Hoosier way in the near future.

[Verily]

Isd it really so hard for Rasmussen to poll Indiana? I mean, they're doing monthly polls of Kansas, which I can only see as reasonable if they're testing Sebelius. Why not do the same for Bayh in Indiana if for no other reason?

[Alcon]

Isd it really so hard for Rasmussen to poll Indiana? I mean, they're doing monthly polls of Kansas, which I can only see as reasonable if they're testing Sebelius. Why not do the same for Bayh in Indiana if for no other reason?

Blame whatever Indianapolis affiliate is totally missing out on some valuable attention.

[Brittain33]

OK, just how different is Ohio from Indiana?  Why would Indiana make a big more, and not Ohio?

Ohio has a large population of Appalachian-Americans, Indiana doesn't, although southern Indiana is in that zone.

Ohio has more large, polarized cities than Indiana does. Indianapolis has the suburban/urban split Cincinnati does, with all that entails, but Gary is a lot smaller than comparable large Ohio cities, while Indiana's secondary cities and metro areas are less diverse.

[Sam Spade]

Well, and Indiana also has the historically Republican NE region that is well-known for wild swings, even though frankly it's not that different from Republican NW Ohio, yet that area doesn't exhibit such swings.

Considering Rasmussen doesn't poll for sponsors, there's really no reason, imo.  I can understand SUSA/Research2000/Mason-Dixon for that.