NC: Research 2000: McCain a few points ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: North Carolina President by Research 2000 on 2008-08-29

Summary: D: 43%, R: 47%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Josh/Devilman88]

Yes that is right, nc is still close

[TheresNoMoney]

The polling in NC has been amazing consistent. Every poll has McCain up by 2%-5%.

[Flying Dog]

The only way this state is gonna flip is if we have a October surprise that does not benefit the McCain campaign. Assuming the race is still this close...

[??????????]

I expect this state to continue to pull away from Obama. I think it will end on election day with McCain winning anywhere from 6-8% and I'd say on the low end of that.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Yes that is right, nc is still close

But it always goes for McCain by 2-5 points.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Yes that is right, nc is still close

But it always goes for McCain by 2-5 points.

My point is, maybe people said by now NC wouldn't be close.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It will be 8% more GOP than the average. If Obama wins by 5% nationally, he'll be close in NC, but it won't flip. NC polled close during the summer of 04 and even was Bush +8 according to the RCP average on election day, and went to Bush +13. NC is much like NJ is for the Republicans. It will poll closer than what the outcome will be.

[Sbane]

It will be 8% more GOP than the average. If Obama wins by 5% nationally, he'll be close in NC, but it won't flip. NC polled close during the summer of 04 and even was Bush +8 according to the RCP average on election day, and went to Bush +13. NC is much like NJ is for the Republicans. It will poll closer than what the outcome will be.

Yes I do believe those undecideds will go towards Mccain disproportionately.

[Josh/Devilman88]

It will be 8% more GOP than the average. If Obama wins by 5% nationally, he'll be close in NC, but it won't flip. NC polled close during the summer of 04 and even was Bush +8 according to the RCP average on election day, and went to Bush +13. NC is much like NJ is for the Republicans. It will poll closer than what the outcome will be.

Yes I do believe those undecideds will go towards Mccain disproportionately.

Only about one half of them will go to Mccain the other half will go to Obama or not vote.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Wrong. Care to explain why it was polling within 8% in 04 and went Bush +13? The answer "because black and you people will turnout in record numbers" isn't sufficent.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Wrong. Care to explain why it was polling within 8% in 04 and went Bush +13? The answer "because black and you people will turnout in record numbers" isn't sufficent.

NC was polling +8 for bush with a 4% MoE. Also at that time, the polls were around, (Bush)52 - (Kerry) 44 - unsure 3%. So since we know Bush got 56% of the vote, we know that  the polls were 4% off. So change that to the polls and you have (Bush)56-(kerry)40 -(unsure)3%. Well Kerry got 43% of the vote. So that means 100% of the unsure went to kerry.