Would members agree with this?

[Harry Hayfield]

If a candidate is leading in a state poll by more than the number of people who have not chosen a candidate, that candidate can be deemed as the winner

For instance, if a state poll has McCain 50% Obama 35%, that state could be called for McCain but a McCain 45% Obama 40% poll would be a tossup?

[bullmoose88]

If a candidate is leading in a state poll by more than the number of people who have not chosen a candidate, that candidate can be deemed as the winner

For instance, if a state poll has McCain 50% Obama 35%, that state could be called for McCain but a McCain 45% Obama 40% poll would be a tossup?

I'd certainly agree with that if we're talking about an incumbent or candidate who has incumbent type advantages.

[Alcon]

Not necessarily, on a statistical level.

Even if the race existed in a vacuum, there's always a chance that the poll is just wrong.  Besides, if the poll is 50-49, there's a very high statistical chance that the other candidate is leading.  If it's 50-19, not so much.

[Verily]

That's a somewhat problematic and arbitrary designation. 49-36 is really no more of a toss-up than 50-35, for example. But certainly if the lead is more than five points and one candidate is at 50% or greater, the victor, if not the result, is probably set in stone.

[Vsanto5]

You mean like Utah for McCain?  Or Alabama for McCain? or Illinois for Obama? LOL