How would Edwards had done against McCain?

[phk]

Assume that he still has an affair with Hunter.

[Lunar]

Edwards, regardless of the affair, has been officially diagnosed with a "lightweight" image problem.  He would be easily beaten by McCain even in this environment.

With the Hunter thing, he'd be forced to drop out.  Cheating on your wife is one thing (which has ended such careers as Gary Hart's mid-campaign), but cheating on your cancer-stricken wife?  That's Nixonian.

[Beet]

Edwards, regardless of the affair, has been officially diagnosed with a "lightweight" image problem.  He would be easily beaten by McCain even in this environment.

With the Hunter thing, he'd be forced to drop out.  Cheating on your wife is one thing (which has ended such careers as Gary Hart's mid-campaign), but cheating on your cancer-stricken wife?  That's Nixonian.

Except that his wife already knew about it and still supported his campaign. If she doesn't care, why should the voters? If anything, she shares part of the guilt for allowing the campaign to go forward with the knowledge that it could all implode at any moment.

[Lunar]

She doesn't care?  Yeah I'm sure it was no big deal for her.

And voters aren't necessarily rational.

[Aizen]

Edwards vs McCain - Battle of the adulterers

[Boris]

it would've been really entertaining had Edwards received the nomination (with the affair story breaking around July or August, before the DNC). What on earth would the Democrats have done? What would the convention have looked like? In retrospect, I wish this had happened as it easily would have been the most fun to observe

[Nixon in '80]

Edwards scared independents... need I say more?

Okay, I'll say more: Badly.

[Daniel Z]

With the affair McCain would have won, probably with a similar EV total as Obama. Edwards would not have won a southern state, but would have held most of the northeastern states as well Illinois and maybe Minnesota or Iowa. In the west Edward would have held California, Hawaii and maybe Washington and Oregon.

[Eraserhead]

I believe he certainly would have been forced off the ticket. If he wasn't, he would have been beaten easily. I'd also expect to see Nader's support jump to 2000 levels, at least, if no other other major liberal third party candidate emerged.

[Mr. Morden]

I agree with Lunar that he would have been forced off the ticket.  IIRC, the story broke right before the convention, so the delegates would have subsequently nominated either Clinton or Obama.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Assuming he's not forced off the ticket, I was talking about this on the What If? US board awhile back.

Probably something like this and I'll explain why.

It'll be much closer than Obama's win, but Edwards would likely pull it off. The affair scandal hit (way) back before the Democratic convention in August, which not only would give Edwards time to repair his image (perhaps at the convention?) but also provides a key point in time before the stock market started nosediving.

The stock market started barreling downward right in the middle of September. Couple that with McCain's already weak standing on economic issues, Bush, and Edwards having made the economy and poverty his number one issues since December 2006 when he announced his campaign, public opinion would likely rebound. Americans are relatively forgiving about things in politics (Hello 65% approval President Clinton) and not to mention their incredibly short attention span.

Edwards could immediately take charge on the issue he's already perceived as strong on, and accuse McCain of playing politics and not paying attention to the issues when the McCain campaign attempts to push the economic plunge out of the headlines (another component of our short attention span) just like Obama did to McCain with great effect on the issue of foreign policy and "palling around with terrorists."

As I said, it would be closer than Obama's win, Obama did afterall run a flawless campaign. But when we consider Obama's huge win (notwithstanding the fact that he's black, that probably held him back Missouri) and the advantage Democrats have on the economy and various other issues because of the failure of the Bush Administration, it's difficult to imagine an Edwards loss.

To have Edwards lose you would likely have to have the affair break after the beginning of economic collapse, have Edwards pick a mediocre VP, and have McCain pick and amazing VP. But by then you're just being ridiculous.

Edwards win, 289-249.

[Keystone Phil]

Assuming he's not forced off the ticket, I was talking about this on the What If? US board awhile back.

Probably something like this and I'll explain why.

It'll be much closer than Obama's win, but Edwards would likely pull it off. The affair scandal hit (way) back before the Democratic convention in August, which not only would give Edwards time to repair his image (perhaps at the convention?) but also provides a key point in time before the stock market started nosediving.

The stock market started barreling downward right in the middle of September. Couple that with McCain's already weak standing on economic issues, Bush, and Edwards having made the economy and poverty his number one issues since December 2006 when he announced his campaign, public opinion would likely rebound. Americans are relatively forgiving about things in politics (Hello 65% approval President Clinton) and not to mention their incredibly short attention span.

Edwards could immediately take charge on the issue he's already perceived as strong on, and accuse McCain of playing politics and not paying attention to the issues when the McCain campaign attempts to push the economic plunge out of the headlines (another component of our short attention span) just like Obama did to McCain with great effect on the issue of foreign policy and "palling around with terrorists."

As I said, it would be closer than Obama's win, Obama did afterall run a flawless campaign. But when we consider Obama's huge win (notwithstanding the fact that he's black, that probably held him back Missouri) and the advantage Democrats have on the economy and various other issues because of the failure of the Bush Administration, it's difficult to imagine an Edwards loss.

To have Edwards lose you would likely have to have the affair break after the beginning of economic collapse, have Edwards pick a mediocre VP, and have McCain pick and amazing VP. But by then you're just being ridiculous.

Edwards win, 289-249.

Way before the convention? It happened the week immediately prior to the convention.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I meant way back in terms of where we stand now, not far before the convention. Sorry that seemed confusing.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

He'd have been kicked off the ticket.  If he actually managed to stay on, he'd have lost.  If he hadn't have had the affair, he'd have smoted McCain even more mightily than Obama didst.