Obama and McCain to both campaign in Indiana!

[Lunar]

Truncated the article down to the sexy bits.
link

In the latest sign that he's serious about carrying Indiana this fall, Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama is returning to Indiana on Wednesday to hold a national security summit at Purdue University.

Joining him will be Sen. Evan Bayh, who has been mentioned as a vice presidential pick, and former Sen. Sam Nunn of Georgia, whose foreign policy expertise has placed him on the lists of potential running mates, too.

In addition, he's running TV ads in Indiana, has opened six campaign offices with plans to open a couple of dozen more, and has several full-time paid staff in the state.

McCain, by contrast, has made two stops, including a speech July 1 to the National Sheriffs' Association; has run no TV ads here; has no plans to open campaign offices; and has no in-state staff.

"It tells you Indiana is in play," said former state Democratic Party Chairman Robin Winston.

Bill Blomquist, a political science professor at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis, said it seems clear that Obama is not merely trying to confuse the McCain campaign by devoting resources to what is typically a red state, but is instead trying to redraw the national electoral map.

"If they're faking, it's not just a head fake. This is a full-body fake," Blomquist said.

McCain, in an interview with The Star during his visit earlier this month, said he would be returning to campaign in Indiana.

Luke Messer, a former state GOP executive director and a co-chairman of McCain's campaign in Indiana, said McCain has the well-organized state Republican apparatus at his disposal -- he doesn't need to build a separate campaign structure here and can focus on such battleground states as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

But, he acknowledged, Indiana could become competitive if Bayh was on the ticket.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin, so Obama should be able to get a fair amount of airtime here.

[Lunar]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin, so Obama should be able to get a fair amount of airtime here.

Actually, about 20% of the state lives in the extraordinarily expensive Chicagoland media market.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin

Please show me the Indiana/Wisconsin border.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin, so Obama should be able to get a fair amount of airtime here.

Actually, about 20% of the state lives in the extraordinarily expensive Chicagoland media market.

Nevermind, then

[Eraserhead]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin, so Obama should be able to get a fair amount of airtime here.

Fail.

[Flying Dog]

hehehe

[Lunar]

Also, in order to run ads in the southern Indiana, you can see that you need to advertise in Louisville, Kentucky.  Cincinnati covers some of Indiana too but I'm pretty sure that city's gonna get blanketed in ads anyway.

[King]

If it wasn't for the existence of Milwaukee, Southern Wisconsin and Western Indiana would probably share the same media market with Chicago.

[Verily]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin, so Obama should be able to get a fair amount of airtime here.

Wisconsin? What?

Indiana is pretty cheap, though, at least for Obama. (He gets free press in the Chicago media market.) It's a somewhat more expensive task for McCain, but Indianapolis isn't too bad and doesn't spill over at all, and the other markets are all quite small. (While there are some areas covered by Louisville, Kentucky, these are likely to be ignored as they are not very populous anyway.)

[??????????]

That map just made me vomit in my mouth. All the colors! haha

[Verily]

You know what's cool?  The only two states with only one media market are Rhode Island and Utah.

Anyway...carry on.

Alaska might, and Hawaii, too.

Interestingly, although usually considered an extreme pain to campaign in, Florida has one of the most efficient media market setups in the country.

[Alcon]

Alaska might, and Hawaii, too.

I think Alaska has two, Anchorage (Juneau) and Fairbanks, and then a vast area not in any DMA.

Hawai'i is all Honolulu DMA, so that's another one.

[Lunar]

You know what's cool?  The only two states with only one media market are Rhode Island and Utah.

Anyway...carry on.

Alaska might, and Hawaii, too.

Interestingly, although usually considered an extreme pain to campaign in, Florida has one of the most efficient media market setups in the country.

The problem is that your price per capita goes up in areas with larger amounts of disposable income.  Political ads have to pay what businesses pay for the goal of getting consumers' moneys, which means poorer areas are cheaper per 'head'.  I imagine Florida is partly really expensive because retired people watch a disproportionate amount of TV and have more income to spend on consumption, but I'm not really qualified to speak authoritatively on the subject.

I believe the most efficient and cheapest areas for Obama to advertise, that he is currently buying in, are Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota.

[Padfoot]

Also, in order to run ads in the southern Indiana, you can see that you need to advertise in Louisville, Kentucky.  Cincinnati covers some of Indiana too but I'm pretty sure that city's gonna get blanketed in ads anyway.

In addition to the Cincinnati market, Dayton, OH and Fort Wayne, IN are also apparently cross state lines.  The amount of crossover in all three is virtually negligible though so I wouldn't expect ads in Cincy and Dayton to affect the IN outcome significantly.  In order to seriously win, Obama will have to tackle the Chicago and Indianapolis markets.

[JSojourner]

I imagine Indiana is a fairly cheap market, with spillover from/into Ohio and Wisconsin, so Obama should be able to get a fair amount of airtime here.

No spillover into Wisconsin.

But the South Bend-Elkhart-Mishawaka market spills over into souther Michigan (Benton Harbor, Niles, Southhaven). 

Indiana spilloever into Ohio is significant, but the spillover is limited to the most conservative, reliably Republican parts of the state.  Defiance, Van Wert, Lima, Celina, Fort Recovery, Findlay, etc.

Obama really thinks he can win Indiana.  And he is deluded.

[Lunar]

JSoj, as the article points out:
1) He either thinks he can win
2) He is bluffing hardcore

It's not necessarily the first one.  Remember too that Indiana is the youngest state outside of Illinois in the entire region (Upper Midwest+Rustbelt) and one of the youngest in the country.  That 20% that live in Chicago's media market are already under the Tribune's spell (which could be more favorable to Barack but they still may feel close to him).  Also, because Indiana is inefficient to advertise in, it's a potential future place for Obama to flex his money muscles - McCain might not be able to get 1:2 returns to defend a state and may just have to pray and organize in response.  So, as far as Obama's 'crazy,' states go, at least there is a logical path to victory.

About the conservative parts of Ohio thingy...Obama ran ads in Indiana during the primaries just to reach those same conservative parts of OH if I remember correctly.  Sure, Indiana still had a primary coming up, but there are other examples!

I also think Bayh is a top 5 pick, which will help Obama win or bluff, whichever he prefers.

[JSojourner]

The bluff angle is substantial when you have the kind of money that Obama will be playing with.  If he has the McCain people thinking, "This guy almost won Indiana in May and is polling well there now", then perhaps the bluff makes sense.

Still, I think pretending to be competetive in Indiana to siphon off McCain resources is pretty risky.  Obama is still plenty weak in states he CAN win to be thinking about putting Mac on the defensive anywhere so solidly red.

If I were advising Barack, which might be a frightening thought considering my track record, I would be telling him to put as much money as possible into Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Florida and Virginia. 

And if he really thinks he can win Indiana, he's more out of touch than I suspect.  (Yeah, of course he SAYS he can win there -- just like McCain SAYS he can win in Maine and Connecticut.  You have to talk that way as a candidate.  But neither of them are going to win solidly red/blue states.)

[Lunar]

Well, Barack isn't trusting his gut when it comes to Indiana, he is trusting a team of pollsters and strategists with more available data and know-how than us    We don't know what he is doing, but it way too early to call it misguided and stupid.

[??????????]

Well, Barack isn't trusting his gut when it comes to Indiana, he is trusting a team of pollsters and strategists with more available data and know-how than us

Weren't you always told to trust your gut? I see his campaigning in fringe states backfiring on him simply due to the fact that he has not gained the trust of people outside the lunatic cult of personality folks he has following him like ducklings.

[Flying Dog]

Well, Barack isn't trusting his gut when it comes to Indiana, he is trusting a team of pollsters and strategists with more available data and know-how than us

Weren't you always told to trust your gut? I see his campaigning in fringe states backfiring on him simply due to the fact that he has not gained the trust of people outside the lunatic cult of personality folks he has following him like ducklings.

Keep on fighten' the good fight, fella.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, Barack isn't trusting his gut when it comes to Indiana, he is trusting a team of pollsters and strategists with more available data and know-how than us

Weren't you always told to trust your gut? I see his campaigning in fringe states backfiring on him simply due to the fact that he has not gained the trust of people outside the lunatic cult of personality folks he has following him like ducklings.

46-48% of the country is lunatic fringe now?

[Lunar]

Well, Barack isn't trusting his gut when it comes to Indiana, he is trusting a team of pollsters and strategists with more available data and know-how than us

Weren't you always told to trust your gut?  [snip]

I think politicians, when they devise their electoral strategy, do not trust their gut.  Politicians don't know the demographics and the crosstabs of internal polling trends.  They should trust their gut when it comes to issues and policies (versus triangulating their current position based on current political winds), but as to running more ads in the Chicagoland versus Louisville media markets.... they don't have time to sit down for five hours and do the math to make that sort of decision. 

[MasterJedi]

If it wasn't for the existence of Milwaukee, Southern Wisconsin and Western Indiana would probably share the same media market with Chicago.

We'd probably get more crossover from Madison as well as Chicago since out in the middle of the distance between Milwaukee and Madison (where my college is) you get a double set of local news stations. So that's what I'm basing it on.