Zogby Interactive: Obama leads McCain 273-158

[Tender Branson]

UTICA, New York – As the race for President passes the Independence Day holiday and heads toward the dog days of summer, Sen. Barack Obama holds a 44% to 38% lead over Sen. John McCain in the horserace contest, but also leads by a substantial margin in a state-by-state Electoral College tally, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows.

The extensive national poll of of 46,274 likely voters also shows Libertarian candidate and former Congressman Bob Barr wins 6% support, eating into McCain’s needed conservative base of support.

The online survey was conducted from June 11-30, 2008. It carries a margin of error of 0.5 percentage points. After nearly a decade in development, the Zogby Interactive survey on a state level was remarkably accurate in the 2006 midterm elections. In 18 U.S. Senate elections polled two years ago, the Zogby online survey correctly identified the winner of 17 of 18 races, and in the 18th race – in Missouri, it was still within the margin of error, though it had Republican Jim Talent winning (he was defeated narrowly by Democrat Claire McCaskill).

This latest extensive survey of all 50 states reveals that while Obama holds a narrow lead in the national preference test, he holds a substantial advantage right now in the Electoral College. Using this survey - and an average of other public state polls in certain states to corroborate the Zogby results – Zogby calculates that Obama leads McCain, 273-158. A total of 11 states with 105 electoral votes are within the margin of error and therefore too close to call. A candidate needs 270 to be elected President.

Neither Obama nor McCain breaks a 50% favorable rating. Obama is viewed as very or somewhat favorable by 49.7%. For McCain, that number is 43.2%.

Pollster John Zogby: “Obama is in the driver’s seat right now, especially where it really counts - in the electoral votes. Bob Barr could really hurt McCain’s chances. McCain can’t afford the level of slippage to Barr we found among conservatives in this polling. While there has been plenty of talk about Obama’s recent emphasis on his centrist positions, he can get away with it during these dog days of the campaign as McCain finds himself still trying to shore up the conservative base. McCain will have to move to the center because right now Obama is clobbering him among independents. But there is the rub for McCain: Bob Barr has some juice among conservatives and is hurting him in several states. ”

Bob Barr receives the support of 7% of voters who identify themselves as conservative or very conservative voters. Barr gets 43% of libertarians and 11% of independents. McCain’s support among conservatives is 74%. On the left, Ralph Nader gets less than 2% nationally.

Obama has the support of 83% of Democrats, while McCain gets 75% of Republicans.

Independents break 39% for Obama, compared with 31% who support McCain.

For white voters, race doesn’t appear to be playing a significant factor. McCain leads Obama, 43%-39%, with Barr at 6%. Among black voters, Obama wins the vast majority of support.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1523

[Aizen]

Where are the state by state results? I don't know why I'm getting excited over this though... it's Zogby

[Tender Branson]

The big question is:

With 46.000 Likely Voters, did they poll all 50 states - or just the 15-20 previously mentioned on their homepage - and where can we find state-by-state results ? Or is it just an abnormal big national sample ?

But Zogby states: "A total of 11 states with 105 electoral votes are within the margin of error and therefore too close to call. A candidate needs 270 to be elected President."

He also says: "... extensive national poll of of 46,274 likely voters, ...carries a margin of error of 0.5 percentage points."

Because I don´t believe 11 states are within 0.5%, all 50 states probably were polled. Maybe I can find the results somewhere ...

[Aizen]

This is the best 273-158 (With 107 too close) I could create. Does anyone have any more realistic guesses?

[The Mikado]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Ronnie]

LOL, it's the interactive Zogby goodness!

Though, the internals, as favorable as they are to Obama, seem substantial.  I have to see a confirmation of them by Gallup or something.

[Tender Branson]

This is the best 273-158 (With 107 too close) I could create. Does anyone have any more realistic guesses?

[Verily]

Here's another possible 273-158-107 breakdown. More likely, I think, than the two solutions showing SC as a toss-up. An alternative to better match recent polls would be to switch South Dakota and Alaska, and Iowa and Oregon are also easily interchangeable.

[Eraserhead]

A joke poll but I'm curious to see the state by state breakdown anyway.

[Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred]

Obama has the support of 83% of Democrats, while McCain gets 75% of Republicans.

LOL.

But at least the electoral count (roughly) mirrors RCP's Obama 238, McCain 163, Tossup 130.

[emailking]

How do these online polls work exactly?

[Sam Spade]

How do these online polls work exactly?

You sign up, you vote.

[Sam Spade]

Where are the state by state results? I don't know why I'm getting excited over this though... it's Zogby

I'm guessing he's not released the state-by-state polls in fear that we would laugh too hard at them.

[DownWithTheLeft]

According the new Zogby Interactive Poll, Ron Paul currently leads 538-0

Anyway, knowing Zogby here is my 273-158-107

The sad part is I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest

[Sam Spade]

According the new Zogby Interactive Poll, Ron Paul currently leads 538-0

Anyway, knowing Zogby here is my 273-158-107

The sad part is I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest

Neither would I.  This is the most reasonable map posted so far.

[emailking]

How do these online polls work exactly?

You sign up, you vote.

So there is really no attempt whatsoever at randomization? If it's really as you describe then it's not a poll at all, but a vote. MOE is meaningless as a concept. A vote is exact (in theory...counting problems aside) and has no MOE.

[Alcon]

So there is really no attempt whatsoever at randomization? If it's really as you describe then it's not a poll at all, but a vote. MOE is meaningless as a concept. A vote is exact (in theory...counting problems aside) and has no MOE.

It's a vote that they are projecting onto a pollable phenomenon based on shared criteria (claimed residence in a state)

In other words, it's total crap.

[The Mikado]

So there is really no attempt whatsoever at randomization? If it's really as you describe then it's not a poll at all, but a vote. MOE is meaningless as a concept. A vote is exact (in theory...counting problems aside) and has no MOE.

It's a vote that they are projecting onto a pollable phenomenon based on shared criteria (claimed residence in a state)

In other words, it's total crap.

Hence the article I posted earlier in this thread.  It's really the same error, 72 years later.

[Alcon]

Hence the article I posted earlier in this thread.  It's really the same error, 72 years later.

Yeah, that made me LOL at several points throughout.  The parallels are pretty hilarious.

[Sam Spade]

So there is really no attempt whatsoever at randomization? If it's really as you describe then it's not a poll at all, but a vote. MOE is meaningless as a concept. A vote is exact (in theory...counting problems aside) and has no MOE.

It's a vote that they are projecting onto a pollable phenomenon based on shared criteria (claimed residence in a state)

In other words, it's total crap.

Are you sure Zogby doesn't weight the hell out of it (like he does his phone polls), so that the results are not truly laughable?

[Alcon]

So there is really no attempt whatsoever at randomization? If it's really as you describe then it's not a poll at all, but a vote. MOE is meaningless as a concept. A vote is exact (in theory...counting problems aside) and has no MOE.

It's a vote that they are projecting onto a pollable phenomenon based on shared criteria (claimed residence in a state)

In other words, it's total crap.

Are you sure Zogby doesn't weight the hell out of it (like he does his phone polls), so that the results are not truly laughable?

I didn't say he didn't.  I have no idea.  He might as well.  When you've burnt the sh**t out of your dinner, you might as well throw on a little jerk spice, but it really doesn't matter.

[xzcyhj]

Online Poll,haha. AOL.......

[Hash]

MCCAIN WILL LOSE ARIZONA! THE ZOGBY SAID IT!

[minionofmidas]

So there is really no attempt whatsoever at randomization? If it's really as you describe then it's not a poll at all, but a vote. MOE is meaningless as a concept. A vote is exact (in theory...counting problems aside) and has no MOE.

It's a vote that they are projecting onto a pollable phenomenon based on shared criteria (claimed residence in a state)

In other words, it's total crap.

Are you sure Zogby doesn't weight the hell out of it (like he does his phone polls), so that the results are not truly laughable?

It is quite obvious that he does.