Which state does Obama have a better shot at?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Florida.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-63038537.html

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Florida will tighten as the campaign moves on. McCain will not win the state by as much Bush did, and that's if he wins the state.

It pains me to see the Democrats here falling for the Republican talking points about Florida.

[© tweed]

Gore built his campaign around winning Florida, picked a Jew as VP, sent him to synagogues, and still only managed a draw despite winning nationwide by .5% or whatever it was.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Gore built his campaign around winning Florida, picked a Jew as VP, sent him to synagogues, and still only managed a draw despite winning nationwide by .5% or whatever it was.

Gore did not build his campaign around winning Florida. His campaign didn't pay much attention to the state until the polls started showing some movement towards him after Labor Day. It wasn't until the middle of September when he finally put a full court press on Florida.

[Torie]

Ya NC swung Dem by .39%.  That is just so exciting! 

It is when on the national level we swung right by 2.86.

Ya, but you meant "swing," not "trend," because you said NC was the "only" Southern state to move towards the River Styx. When you swing, I swing, as it were. Don't mess with the lawyer! 

[© tweed]

Gore built his campaign around winning Florida, picked a Jew as VP, sent him to synagogues, and still only managed a draw despite winning nationwide by .5% or whatever it was.

Gore did not build his campaign around winning Florida. His campaign didn't pay much attention to the state until the polls started showing some movement towards him after Labor Day. It wasn't until the middle of September when he finally put a full court press on Florida.

I'm not sure how the notion of a 7-week "full court press" contradicts my statement.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Gore built his campaign around winning Florida, picked a Jew as VP, sent him to synagogues, and still only managed a draw despite winning nationwide by .5% or whatever it was.

Gore did not build his campaign around winning Florida. His campaign didn't pay much attention to the state until the polls started showing some movement towards him after Labor Day. It wasn't until the middle of September when he finally put a full court press on Florida.

I'm not sure how the notion of a 7-week "full court press" contradicts my statement.

Is it September yet?

As I said, the polls didn't start moving towards Gore until September.

It is absolutely foolhardy to just give 27 free electoral votes to John McCain. Obama needs to challenge him in Florida. And given the Florida electorate's history of being disengaged from election process up until Labor Day, it is stupid to just concede the state. Obama can win the state if he spends a lot of time and money in the state.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Florida.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-63038537.html

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Florida will tighten as the campaign moves on. McCain will not win the state by as much Bush did, and that's if he wins the state.

It pains me to see the Democrats here falling for the Republican talking points about Florida.

Gore/Lieberman=good ticket for Florida
Kerry/Edwards=decent ticket for Florida
Obama/?=terrible ticket for Florida

The demographics could not be worse for Obama at all, especially with a geezer runnin on the other side

[ChrisFromNJ]

Florida.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-63038537.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Florida will tighten as the campaign moves on. McCain will not win the state by as much Bush did, and that's if he wins the state.

It pains me to see the Democrats here falling for the Republican talking points about Florida.

Gore/Lieberman=good ticket for Florida
Kerry/Edwards=decent ticket for Florida
Obama/?=terrible ticket for Florida

The demographics could not be worse for Obama at all, especially with a geezer runnin on the other side

The demographics could be worse... it could be Kentucky.

Enough with the hyperbole.

I'm tired of the "the demographics couldn't be worse" meme.

Other than Cuban Americans, Obama should do well with Hispanics in Florida. He'll probably do better than Kerry with Hispanics.

He'll do exceptionally well in the Gold Coast.

He doesn't have much of a chance of winning in the I-4 corridor, but he'll keep it close.

In the black parts of the Panhandle, he'll do better than Kerry.

McCain = old isn't a good enough explanation on why McCain will supposedly win this state by 10 points.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Florida.

http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-63038537.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Florida will tighten as the campaign moves on. McCain will not win the state by as much Bush did, and that's if he wins the state.

It pains me to see the Democrats here falling for the Republican talking points about Florida.

Gore/Lieberman=good ticket for Florida
Kerry/Edwards=decent ticket for Florida
Obama/?=terrible ticket for Florida

The demographics could not be worse for Obama at all, especially with a geezer runnin on the other side

The demographics could be worse... it could be Kentucky.

Enough with the hyperbole.

I'm tired of the "the demographics couldn't be worse" meme.

Other than Cuban Americans, Obama should do well with Hispanics in Florida. He'll probably do better than Kerry with Hispanics.

He'll do exceptionally well in the Gold Coast.

He doesn't have much of a chance of winning in the I-4 corridor, but he'll keep it close.

In the black parts of the Panhandle, he'll do better than Kerry.

McCain = old isn't a good enough explanation on why McCain will supposedly win this state by 10 points.

And I'm tired of the "Obama will improve/do almost as good as Kerry" hyperbole as well.

But that's just it, they couldn't be much worse in Florida. The whole idea that the liberals have that Obama will improve or do just about as well as Kerry in every demographic is laughable. The Gore ticket was so good for Florida mainly because Lieberman was Jewish. Enough of these "probably do better" nonsense. None of us know how he'll do with Hispanics since he did dreadfully in that area in the primaries. He will do well in the black areas of the panhandle, that's the only thing we know for certain. Florida will be more GOP this election than North Carolina. There are enough elderly  who are wary of Obama to keep this in the GOP column.

[ChrisFromNJ]

And I'm tired of the "Obama will improve/do almost as good as Kerry" hyperbole as well.

Kerry lost the popular vote by 2.5%. Considering the fact that this election Obama is the favorite, and if he does lose, it'll probably be less than what Kerry lost by, I don't think we are really going out on a limb here.

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Well, why don't you explain to us why?

"OMG MCCAIN IS OLD HE HAS TEH OLD VOTE ON LOCK" isn't good enough.

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Ummm... why?

Are you forgetting Kerry lost the election?

In a much less favorable climate for the Democrats than today?

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This is a myth.

There was 5% Jewish turnout in Florida in 2000.
There was 5% Jewish turnout in Florida in 2004.

Both Kerry and Gore won around 80% of that vote.

Kerry lost because he did significantly worse among Protestant whites than Gore.


 

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The 2006 midterms are a good indication of which way Latinos are leaning nationally.

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Perhaps it will stay in the GOP column. I have no idea. You may be right. But to say that Florida won't be a competitive state is absolutely absurd. It will be heavily contested by Obama and it's unlikely he'll do any worse than Kerry. For many reasons. No Jeb Bush is one. Among many others.

[Ogre Mage]

Gore built his campaign around winning Florida, picked a Jew as VP, sent him to synagogues, and still only managed a draw despite winning nationwide by .5% or whatever it was.

Gore did not build his campaign around winning Florida. His campaign didn't pay much attention to the state until the polls started showing some movement towards him after Labor Day. It wasn't until the middle of September when he finally put a full court press on Florida.

I'm not sure how the notion of a 7-week "full court press" contradicts my statement.

Is it September yet?

As I said, the polls didn't start moving towards Gore until September.

It is absolutely foolhardy to just give 27 free electoral votes to John McCain. Obama needs to challenge him in Florida. And given the Florida electorate's history of being disengaged from election process up until Labor Day, it is stupid to just concede the state. Obama can win the state if he spends a lot of time and money in the state.

Obama has to make decisions about allocation of valuable time and resources.  I am not saying that he should ignore Florida entirely, but clearly there are critical swing areas where he has better potential -- VA, OH, PA, NM, CO, IA, MI, WI.  The signs for Obama in Florida do not look good.  Polling data shows him losing in the high single digits.  McCain and Hillary both won the primary here decisively.  The I-4 area in Central Florida is widely regarded as the critical swing region in the state and Clinton mopped up here.  Obama performed poorly during the primaries with key demographic groups which dominate Florida.  Kerry and Gore were not hamstrung with Jewish voters by Rev. Wright's politically incorrect statements.  Florida was ground zero for another election controversy this year which is not going to endear local Dems to Obama.  Republicans largely control the political apparatus in Florida.  And Obama reportedly has little organization in the state and will have to build from the ground up.  I could see him narrowing the gap, but actually getting over the hump is going to be extremely difficult.

If Hillary were at the top of the ticket I would absolutely agree that it was worth it to make an all-out effort in Florida.  With Obama the case is much harder to make.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My predictions:

NORTH CAROLINA -
51% (R) McCain
47% (D) Obama


FLORIDA -
52% (R) McCain
47% (D Obama


There's probably not a lot in it really but I think North Carolina will be the better state for Obama in 2008 because he will really narrow the GOP margin from 2004.  Florida could be slightly worse for him than it was for Kerry.