WI: Other: Obama leads by 13

[ChrisFromNJ]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by University of Wisconsin on 2008-06-11

Summary: D: 50%, R: 37%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=128513

[Alcon]

Added

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=5520080611051

[Eleanor Martins]

14 point differential in party advantage? Tempted to write this off as junk.

[Tender Branson]

A bit high, but Obama should be comfortably ahead on Election Day (3-5%).

[Aizen]

oh my god

barack obama infused with the power of hillary clinton

he is... unstoppable!

[Verily]

14 point differential in party advantage? Tempted to write this off as junk.

Not when Rasmussen's tracker has the Democrats with just over a ten-point advantage nationwide, up from about a point and a half at the time of the 2004 election, although admittedly this is without looking at what the breakdown was in Wisconsin for the 2004 exits.

But it's a university poll, so you should be leery automatically unless it's somewhere with an established reputation (UNH or Quinnipiac).

[Alcon]

14 point differential in party advantage? Tempted to write this off as junk.

Not when Rasmussen's tracker has the Democrats with just over a ten-point advantage nationwide, up from about a point and a half at the time of the 2004 election, although admittedly this is without looking at what the breakdown was in Wisconsin for the 2004 exits.

But it's a university poll, so you should be leery automatically unless it's somewhere with an established reputation (UNH or Quinnipiac).

In 2004, the GOP outnumbered Democrats, 38-35.  Independents were 27%, and went to Kerry by 8 points.  Dems for Bush and Pubbies for Kerry were in about equal supply.

[classical liberal]

Could we dispense with the uni polls?

[Alcon]

Apparently, this poll was conducted by Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein, two well-regarded polling people...for whatever that's worth.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think Obama will get between 52%-55% of the vote in Wisconsin. 

[The Mikado]

Obama is not leading in Wisconsin by 13 points.  He might (and hopefully will) win the state, but it's far closer than that...especially considering all the other WI polls.

[bullmoose88]

With the way things are going right now, Obama has the mo...not surprised.

[kevinatcausa]

A similar problem to the Rasmussen polls, only even more exaggerated.

The poll number people care about most is Obama vs. McCain, so ask that question first instead of having voters spend the first 14 questions giving their opinions on the state of the country and of Bush's job as president.   Asking that question so late in the poll distorts the result. 

The same thing was happening with SurveyUSA's series of VP polls (asking them one after the other caused many more people to switch votes based on the VP choice than would in reality) and to a lesser extent in some of the last polls in the primary season (asking Clinton-McCain immediately before Obama-McCain makes a Clinton supporter more likely to choose McCain in the 2nd matchup). 

[Bogart]

Obama is not leading in Wisconsin by 13 points.  He might (and hopefully will) win the state, but it's far closer than that...especially considering all the other WI polls.

Obama will win Wisconsin, barring something crazy, it's pretty safe. I'm not good at guessing margins, only outcomes.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Working link to the database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?action=indpoll&id=5520080610051