Which counties could swing 2008 in Colorado, Nebraska, NH and Minnesota?

[Warren Griffin]

Simple question. From Bush to Obama, Kerry to McCain? I am very interested in your valuations because of a state analysis.

By the way, where can I find demographic information of each county?

[Hash]

Minnesota and Nebraska aren't swing states, if that's what you mean.

[Verily]

Colorado is easy. If Arapahoe, Jefferson and the independent city of Broomfield vote for Obama, he wins (along with such swings in the Denver area and maybe winning places like Ouray and Larimer counties, but Denver and environs are the really important part). In New Hampshire, McCain needs to win Coos County without losing Carroll County and run up his margins in Rockingham and Hillsborough Counties to win.

Incidentally, New Hampshire may be the only state where Bush won the two most populous counties but lost the state (or even just the most populous county).

[Alcon]

Unlike Nebraska demonstrates the kind of  crazy swing some polls are showing, I'd be surprised if Obama could pick up more than Dakota (South Sioux City), Lancaster (Lincoln) and Saline (Wilber - I have no idea why this area is moderate), maybe Douglas (Omaha) if he's lucky.

[TheresNoMoney]

Colorado is easy. If Arapahoe, Jefferson and the independent city of Broomfield vote for Obama, he Incidentally, New Hampshire may be the only state where Bush won the two most populous counties but lost the state (or even just the most populous county).

The rural areas in New Hampshire are the most liberal (especially Cheshire County in western NH by Vermont). Rockingham County (SE New Hampshire along the Massachusetts border) is the highest income area and also has a lot of conservative Massachusetts transplants, thus being the most Republican area of the state.

[Warren Griffin]

Minnesota and Nebraska aren't swing states, if that's what you mean.

No, no state generally, I mean single counties.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Saline (Wilber - I have no idea why this area is moderate)

It's a historically Democratic rural county. Something to do with Czech immigrants.

Also if Obama can take Douglas, he can take NE-02.

Counties in Minnesota that can flip:

Pope
Yellow Medicine (this county seems to love giving VERY narrow GOP victories for some reason though.)
Grant
Traverse
Stevens
Lincoln
Olmsted (probably not, but worth keeping an eye on.)
Washington and Dakota if Obama wins big enough.

I don't see any flipping to McCain. In fact, in Minnesota losing DFL candidates usually do better in rural counties than Kerry did. The key to Minnesota is the suburbs (much as I hate them.) The GOP needs to win all the suburban counties by double digits and keep the Democrat's margin in Hennepin in the low 50s, because if they're getting blown away by 20 points in Hennepin and only winning the inner ring suburban counties by low single digits, it doesn't matter how many rural counties they can pick up. Especially since outstate also contains Duluth plus a bunch of liberal college towns.

[nclib]

Incidentally, New Hampshire may be the only state where Bush won the two most populous counties but lost the state (or even just the most populous county).

That appears to be true. In fact, I think Virginia is the only state where Bush won the most populous county, and won the state by less than 10%.

[minionofmidas]

Saline (Wilber - I have no idea why this area is moderate)

It's a historically Democratic rural county. Something to do with Czech immigrants.

Yeah, that whole area is full of Czechs, but Saline most of all IIRC. I think it's over 50% Catholic, too.