French election maps: Loire-Atlantique and Vendée

[PGSable]

Députés after the last legislative election:



The PS is in pink; the UMP in blue. Green is Nantes Est, which is held by a Vert. Light blue (in Loire-Atlantique) is the NC (Hunault). Dark blue is Véronique Besse (MPF), and light blue is Joël Sarlot (MPF dissident).

The president of the PS-PRG-MRC-DVG group in the National Assembly is Jean-Marc Ayrault, the député from and mayor of Nantes (see my signature). François Fillon is a député from Sarthe, and Roselyne Bachelot is a députée from Maine-et-Loire.

[PGSable]

Sarlot has been removed from office due to (unless I'm mistaken) campaign finance violations, and the first round in the by-election to replace him was held today.

Dominique Souchet, a DVD candidate backed by the UMP and the MPF, came first with a majority of votes, but he did not break 25% of registered voters, so he will run against the PS candidate Daniel David in the second round next week.

Full results
Dominique Souchet (DVD): 53.34%
Daniel David (PS): 31.35%
Sandra Cappi (MoDem): 7.45%
Philippe Terroire (DVG): 5.29%
Jean-Marie Dieulangard (FN): 2.58%

Souchet is apparently very close to Villiers, whereas Sarlot left the MPF and moved closer to the UMP.

[Hash]

Why didn't I hear about this by-election anywhere else?

The PS did much better than in June, but when you add the June PS+PRG+Greenie+LO vote, it's about the same (32.11%).

Sarlot won 52.12 in June BTW. The MoDem improved a bit (+2%) and Terroire (also candidate in June) went from 2.9% to 5.3% (most likely took the Trot vote from the LO a bit, he's listed as an ALT on LeMonde.fr).

The FN is up 0.3%.

Souchet will win easily oc.

[Math]

I would like to see a specific map concerning my beloved Maine et Loire ;-)

That's an interesting département. The Baugeois (the North-East part) was a left-wing territory until the end of the 60's, and the rest was very conservative. But with the increasing bipolarisation of the 70's, the Maine et Loire became uniformly conservative. The christian-democrats (UDF) were the principal party of the right here, as in the major part of the West of France.

Now, Angers and its suburbs are more and more socialists (don't consider the outcomes of the municipales, this kind of elections are too much candidate-centered), and I guess the evolution will be the same as in Loire Atlantique.

[PGSable]

Souchet won the runoff with 59.5% of the vote (no surprise there).

[Hash]

Souchet won the runoff with 59.5% of the vote (no surprise there).

No surprise oc, it's much higher than the 53% Sarkozy took in 8505 in the presidential runoff, funnily.

The last time there was runoff here was in 1997, which Sarlot won 52-48.

[PGSable]

Bump.

I'll try to update this occasionally, though I won't be able to do so as often as I used to. I'll stick to Loire-Atlantique and Vendée, because I won't have the time to make commune maps for all five departments.

I have a map of the 2007 legislative elections ready (which I'll post in just a moment). If anyone has any requests, please let me know.

[PGSable]

Link to the gallery.

For the numbering of constituencies, see these maps: Loire-Atlantique, Vendée.

Results by constituency and by commune for Loire-Atlantique and Vendée.

The colors are:

• Red: PS.
• Green: Verts in Loire-Atlantique I (de Rugy).
• Orange: MoDem in Loire-Atlantique V (Perrion).
• Blue: UMP; NC in Loire-Atlantique VI (Hunault) and Vendée I (Préel).
• Yellow: DVD in Vendée I (Lebœuf).
• Purple: MPF in Vendée IV (Besse); dissident MPF in Vendée V (Sarlot).

(I'm not familiar with Lebœuf. The MPF is notorious for running candidates under the DVD banner, so he might be a member of the MPF.)

Three candidates won a majority in the first round, thereby avoiding a runoff: Guédon (UMP in Vendée III), Besse (MPF in Vendée IV), and Sarlot (dissident MPF in Vendée V).

Note that two communes are split between constituencies: Nantes (Loire-Atlantique I, II, III, IV, and V) and La Roche-sur-Yon (Vendée I and II). Those communes are colored with the color of the party that won the most votes. Nantes is shaded in blue for the first round because, even though the PS received more votes than the UMP in Loire-Atlantique II, II, IV, and V combined, it did not run a candidate in Loire-Atlantique I; in that constituency, the UMP candidate (Le Ridant) finished first in the first round and lost to the Vert candidate (de Rugy) in the runoff.

[Hash]

Lebœuf sounds more like a Gaullist right-winger opposed to a ex-UDF centrist than a Villiers clone.

EDIT: And by looking at his map, his support was very localized. He is the mayor of Rocheserviere, where he got over 70% of the votes (that deserves a lol). He broke 50 in all but one of the other communes of the canton.

[Hash]

I made some local election maps for Vendee and Liger-Atlantel, aka cantonal maps.





I will do a set of maps of Loire-Atlantique since '89 or '92 to show the very marked evolution of the PS and the left.

[PGSable]

Interesting. I can make maps for 2004 and 2008.

[Hash]

2004-2008 council (the PS gained overall control of Loire-Atlantique following the 2004 cantonal elections. It is the first time the left has controlled Loire-Atlantique since the Revolution)



2001-2004 (1998 and 2001 cantonal elections)



1998-2001 (1994 and 1998 cantonal elections)



1994-1998 (1992 and 1994 cantonal elections)



I don't have the 1988 cantonal results, but IIRC the right's domination from 1992-1994 was even more imposing.

The Green councillor in Saint-Nazaire-Ouest is the suppleant of the PS councillor elected at the origin (in 2004, IIRC) but stepped down since she's deputy of the Saint-Nazaire constituency. Saint-Nazaire didn't strike me as Greenie land.

[Hash]

I did some communal-level demographic maps for Liger-Atlantel and Vendee.

Here is the income map



And Insee's 1999 urban/rural continuum.