This may make Lief happy...

[Meeker]

TX-10:

Larry Joe Doherty (D): 46
Michael McCaul (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4.3%)

http://ivrpolls.com/

[Verily]

2% undecided? Yeah, right.

[Sam Spade]

Hope springs eternal.

[Lief 🗽]

I actually kind of like Mike McCaul, even if I disagree with him on a lot of issues.

But it's still good to know that the race is somewhat close.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I've said before I believe TX-10 is a seat to watch in the coming years. 

[MarkWarner08]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

[Sam Spade]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

[MarkWarner08]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

[Sam Spade]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

Oh I know.  And my repeat of my earlier line is kinda meant the same way.

What are the chances that you think Lampson holds onto TX-22?  TX-23 fascinates me, as always.

[MarkWarner08]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

Oh I know.  And my repeat of my earlier line is kinda meant the same way.

What are the chances that you think Lampson holds onto TX-22?  TX-23 fascinates me, as always.

Pete Olson seems to have coalesced the GOP base and is improving on the fundraising front, too. He might be the only challenger to a freshman Democrat who can win by simply running a generic Republican campaign.

I still think that Nick Lampson is much more vulnerable than Tim "Congress isn't the best job I've had" Mahoney or Chris "I lost 47% of the vote to a creepy old guy who strangled his mistress".

In addition to the problems he face with the district's demographics, Lampson has offended liberals special interest groups with some questionable votes. Furthermore, am I right to infer that Nick Lampson is a rather polarizing figure? When I visited Houston, most natives either praised his efforts to increase NASA funding, or accused him of being another "illegal alien-loving, baby-killing, tax-raising, Darwin-worshiping left-wing loon".

[Sam Spade]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

Oh I know.  And my repeat of my earlier line is kinda meant the same way.

What are the chances that you think Lampson holds onto TX-22?  TX-23 fascinates me, as always.

Pete Olson seems to have coalesced the GOP base and is improving on the fundraising front, too. He might be the only challenger to a freshman Democrat who can win by simply running a generic Republican campaign.

Ya, that's what I seem to be getting as well.  I have not seen him on TV yet (which is a huge caveat), but he sounded like the best GOP candidate there during the primaries.

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Agreed.  Although the other two are probably the next most in danger generically (followed by NH-01 and KS-02 and probably some other CD I'm missing).  Of course, a lot will depend on the quality of the candidates and the campaigns, as always.

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That's just Houston.  The big problem for him, of course, is that that CD is made up of a lot of those types of voters (less so than some, but still - hardcore Rs).  Of course, there aren't many liberal special interest groups types in that CD - most of his hardcore base will be minorities (lots of Asians there too), so...

[MarkWarner08]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

Oh I know.  And my repeat of my earlier line is kinda meant the same way.

What are the chances that you think Lampson holds onto TX-22?  TX-23 fascinates me, as always.

Pete Olson seems to have coalesced the GOP base and is improving on the fundraising front, too. He might be the only challenger to a freshman Democrat who can win by simply running a generic Republican campaign.

Ya, that's what I seem to be getting as well.  I have not seen him on TV yet (which is a huge caveat), but he sounded like the best GOP candidate there during the primaries.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Agreed.  Although the other two are probably the next most in danger generically (followed by NH-01 and KS-02 and probably some other CD I'm missing).  Of course, a lot will depend on the quality of the candidates and the campaigns, as always.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's just Houston.  The big problem for him, of course, is that that CD is made up of a lot of those types of voters (less so than some, but still - hardcore Rs).  Of course, there aren't many liberal special interest groups types in that CD - most of his hardcore base will be minorities (lots of Asians there too), so...

I have an open-ended strategic question. If Lampson trails in internal polls throughout September and much of October, should the DCCC avoid making a huge ad buy to save his candidacy? I understand that the D-trip is an incumbent protection committee first, but any dollars spent a likely-futile effort to rescue Lampson, who is an accidental incumbent, will detract from efforts to save a Shea-Porter or perhaps one of the Arizona freshmen.

Anyway, if I were a Democratic strategist, I'd prefer to pick up a seat a marginal seat like NC-08 (which Democrats can win if they match millionaire Robin Hayes on TV) to a heavily GOP seat such as TX-22. Even if Lampson survives this year, he'll be a top ten target in 2010 and his seat will probably be redistricted to oblivion in 2012.

This raises another question: Does the DCCC, which has a different chair every two years, even think this far ahead?

[Mr.Phips]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

Oh I know.  And my repeat of my earlier line is kinda meant the same way.

What are the chances that you think Lampson holds onto TX-22?  TX-23 fascinates me, as always.

I will be shocked if Ciro comes even close to losing in TX-23.  This is a district that I bet Barack Obama will come very close to carrying, if not carry and a 65% Hispanic district is not likely to be warm to the lily white Republican candidate running.   

[Sam Spade]

TX-22, TX-23, and now TX-10? It seems that Tom DeLay, Tom Craddick, and Karl Rove are now quite familiar with the the law of unintended consequences.

Hope springs eternal.

<puts on my hack hat> Not for Harry Bonilla, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, and Tom DeLay! <takes off hack hat>

I intentionally placed a question mark after TX-10. I doubt that Larry Joe Doherty will actually win but if he did, it would complete the troika of seats lost because of Tom DeLay's greedy re-redistricting plan.

Oh I know.  And my repeat of my earlier line is kinda meant the same way.

What are the chances that you think Lampson holds onto TX-22?  TX-23 fascinates me, as always.

I will be shocked if Ciro comes even close to losing in TX-23.  This is a district that I bet Barack Obama will come very close to carrying, if not carry and a 65% Hispanic district is not likely to be warm to the lily white Republican candidate running.   

I know we disagree on this CD, so I'm going to end the conversation here.