Arapahoe County: Democrats overtake Republicans

[Tender Branson]

Registered Democrats in Arapahoe County now outnumber — if only slightly — Republicans and unaffiliated voters, a change that seemed unthinkable even a few years ago.

Voter-registration numbers as of Saturday showed that there were 112,424 Democratic voters registered in Arapahoe County, compared with 112,268 Republicans and 107,023 unaffiliated voters and those registered with third parties.

It was just 156 more Democratic than Republican voters, but a lead nonetheless in this county, where there have traditionally been tens of thousands more registered Republicans.

In November 2004, for example, there were 133,885 registered Republicans in the county, compared with 106,690 Democrats and 122,970 unaffiliated voters.

"The fact that the Democrats are slightly ahead is sort of an amazing thing," said Floyd Ciruli, a Denver pollster and a former chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party.

Ciruli said the change reflects the county's shifting demographics.

With more minorities and immigrants attracted to Aurora and with greater numbers of suburban voters registering as Democrats or as unaffiliated, Arapahoe County is emerging as friendly turf that Barack Obama can win this year, he said.

"I think it'll sort of be the news of this election cycle" in Colorado, Ciruli said.

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_10672462

[Mr.Phips]

If Obama wins Arapahoe, he will be the first Democrat since LBJ in 1964 to carry it. 

[Person Man]

I guess they work on the hip-hop Republicans. Otherwise, I think they are screwed...have fun in the wilderness. Hopefully you'll find some mana....but probably not.

[Tender Branson]

Does anyone know the information on Jefferson County, Colorado registration?

126,350 Republicans
121,328 Independents
115,075 Democrats

Statewide:

1,052,705 Independents
1,049,520 Republicans
1,010,532 Democrats

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/06/unaffiliated-republican-and-democratic-voters-stat/

[Ronnie]

Obama will undoubtedly get a majority in the county.

[muon2]

I think this combined with the Nassau, NY news brings Republican strength in the suburbs into question.  If they can't keep a hold on the suburbs, which seem to be the fastest Democratic trending areas, they need to find somewhere to gain ground.  There's not much ground left to gain in rural areas and urban areas would take tons of money and effort.  So allowing the suburbs to slip away is allowing relevancy to slip away.  The Republican Party is going down a dangerous path by allowing themselves to disintegrate in places like Arapahoe and Nassau.  If they lose the suburbs, it'll be a while until they can really compete again.

Does anyone know the information on Jefferson County, Colorado registration?

Over the last 8 years the GOP has concentrated on swinging reliably Dem rural counties to the GOP, and it has worked. However that came at the expense of a lack of message to appeal their traditional suburban base. That hasn't been a factor in the exurbs, but it has been causing significant erosion in established suburbs like Aurora, CO.

[jimrtex]

The portion of Arapahoe County south of Denver is only about 8 miles wide, and has long been developed, which leaves the remaining area for expansion to the east in Aurora.  The Denver area is also largely built up to the foothills to the west.  This leaves the area for growth to the north, in Adams County (which is wider than Arapahoe County) and southern Weld County, Broomfield and south-eastern Boulder County, extreme northern Jefferson County, Aurora to the east, and Douglas County to the south.

The traditional residential area for blacks in Denver has been in east Denver.  Middle class blacks have continued to move eastward into Aurora, displaced somewhat by Hispanics.  According to the 2007 ACS, the black population in Arapahoe and Denver counties is almost the same (about 10.5%).  There is a decidedly greater black population in Arapahoe County among those between 20 and 44, while the reverse is true for those over 45, demonstrating the ongoing shift toward the suburbs.