What counties in PA can Obama win?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I realized the map could be just him taking only Philadelphia, Delaware, Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Centre. Possibly Dauphin. Anywhere else?

Even that wouldn't equal disaster though, he could still hold it within single digits with those and it'd look better than the Ohio map.

[Reaganfan]

Who cares. Obama-fried = Hill-mentum!

[Keystone Phil]

Keep on spinning, BRTD!

Anyway, he'll take Philly, Delaware, Montco, Bucks, Chester and Centre. Maybe one or two more. He's not going to win them as much as you think.

[Speed of Sound]

I am disappointed to say that, despite all of our hard work over the next seven weeks, Berks is just waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too far out of reach. I think Phils list will closely mirror the results, though we'll see about how much he wins them.

[Rob]

Anyway, he'll take Philly, Delaware, Montco, Bucks, Chester and Centre. Maybe one or two more.

Lancaster.

[J. J.]

Anyway, he'll take Philly, Delaware, Montco, Bucks, Chester and Centre. Maybe one or two more.

Lancaster.

Bucks is very unlikely; Delaware is unlikely.  Lancaster has a reasonably large Latino population, so I'd doubt it.  Centre is a likely pickup for Obama.

[Keystone Phil]

Anyway, he'll take Philly, Delaware, Montco, Bucks, Chester and Centre. Maybe one or two more.

Lancaster.

Uh, I doubt it. Maybe you were joking...

Anyway, he'll take Philly, Delaware, Montco, Bucks, Chester and Centre. Maybe one or two more.

Lancaster.

Bucks is very unlikely; Delaware is unlikely.  Lancaster has a reasonably large Latino population, so I'd doubt it.  Centre is a likely pickup for Obama.

I'm unsure about Delaware so I just gave it to him. I still think Bucks is likely. It'll be somewhat close because of Lower Bucks but Obama will be very strong in the affluent areas.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama needs to downplay Pennsylvania. It's only being talked so much about because Clinton knew it was one of her most winnable states. Why let her control 100% of the media spin?

[bullmoose88]

I realized the map could be just him taking only Philadelphia, Delaware, Bucks, Montgomery, Chester and Centre. Possibly Dauphin. Anywhere else?

Even that wouldn't equal disaster though, he could still hold it within single digits with those and it'd look better than the Ohio map.

Since the word "can" means to me that Obama has a shot but probably won't win...here are the counties I think he'll win in order of highest probability

Philadelphia
Montgomery
Delaware
Centre
Bucks
Chester
And if the university students and NY/NJ transfers have enrolled in the democratic primaries he may have a shot at
Lehigh
Northhampton

But for him to win those two...things must be going pretty well.

[Sam Spade]

As always, the question will be - who are the Democrats in these CDs?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No one else thinks Obama can take Dauphin?

18% black, with most of the whites being Republican. Also a higher median income than the state average, with most of the non-Harrisburg areas being fairly affluent.

[exopolitician]

What counties in PA can Obama win?


...not enough :/

[12th Doctor]

Keep on spinning, BRTD!

Anyway, he'll take Philly, Delaware, Montco, Bucks, Chester and Centre. Maybe one or two more. He's not going to win them as much as you think.

I don't know about the Philadelphia area... it depends on how good Rendell's people are at killing black turnout.  Most likely you are right about Center County.  I would also posit he might be able to take Clarion and Crawford... maybe Erie.  Basically, almost all the Democrats in Clarion and Crawford Counties are college students.  As for Erie... there is a big college student factor, and a number of blacks inside the City of Erie... half the current council is made up of African Americans.

[WalterMitty]

what about allegheny?  pittsburgh isnt as blue collar as it used to be.

[Keystone Phil]

what about allegheny?  pittsburgh isnt as blue collar as it used to be.

Eh, it's still a blue collar area. I'm not sure about the county.

[MarkWarner08]

Obama needs to downplay Pennsylvania. It's only being talked so much about because Clinton knew it was one of her most winnable states. Why let her control 100% of the media spin?

Because Obama's campaign team is miserable at spin. If only they had a Howard Wolfson or Kevin Madden type...

[True Democrat]

what about allegheny?  pittsburgh isnt as blue collar as it used to be.

Eh, it's still a blue collar area. I'm not sure about the county.

Clinton should take it fairly easily, but I think it'll be closer than expected.  Where I live (the South Hills) there are pretty affluent suburbs that really would fit better in the Philadelphia region.  Plus, I think the city of Pittsburgh (population of about 300,000) should break for Obama.  The city is not quite as Democratic as Philadelphia in terms of presidential voting (Democratic presidential candidate usually win it about 75-25), but in terms of local elections, it is controlled by the Democratic Party.  Ravenstahl's (the mayor, 28 years old) opponent got 35% of the vote, which is a high for the Republicans since the 70s I believe.

However, look for Clinton to do well in those areas North of the city.

Just one other complication for Clinton are the college populations.  The University of Pittsburgh, Carnegie Mellon University, Duquesne University, and a number of other colleges are present in the city, which should help Obama.

I hope that was of some help.

[Democratic Hawk]

In all upcoming primaries, Obama has to campaign as hard as he can to close the gap in states like PA, KY and WV, which favor Clinton, as well as work to build on any lead he has in states, which favor him. A solid win in NC would be nice, as well as pushing Clinton close, assuming it favors her, in the third biggy, IN

Given its likely he will finish ahead in pledged delegates, he must do all he can to retain his edge in the national popular vote because if Clinton takes the lead, it strengthens her legitimacy. She is just ahead including FL and MI

Obama has ran a national campaign thus far. He hasn't cherry-picked and he should press along with that. Looking back, I think that campaign stop in RI was a mistake, however. That time would have been better spent in TX

Unfortunately, the longer the race drags on the more entrenched Obama and Clinton supporters could become, so much so that the eventual nominee will have his or her work cut out for them bringing each others demographically, though not ideologically, bases together

Exit polls seem to suggest that it is not a case of Obama sweeping up the liberal Democratic primary vote with Clinton running up huge wins among moderate and conservative primary voters. After all, Obama and Clinton are closer on the issues than either is to McCain, which is why I hope Democrats and Democratic-voting Independents can coalesce around the eventual nominee. It shouldn't be about race, religion, age, class, etc

Dave

[Sam Spade]

I fail to see how "downplaying" PA is achievable, considering it's going to be the only thing on people's radars for the next 6 weeks.

[Rob]

Lancaster.

Uh, I doubt it. Maybe you were joking...

Rendell carried it in the 2002 primary, and it was one of Pennachio's best counties. The (few) Dems there seem to be fairly liberal.

[Keystone Phil]

Lancaster.

Uh, I doubt it. Maybe you were joking...

Rendell carried it in the 2002 primary, and it was one of Pennachio's best counties. The (few) Dems there seem to be fairly liberal.

Hmmmm...true. I guess he has a shot.