How do you guys think California would vote? I think labor will be popular in LA county and in the bay area. In the bay area labor's main opponent is the lib dems and tories are virtually non existent. Orange, San Diego and the central valley are the torie strongholds.
San FranciscoProbably votes much like central Brighton on a larger scale. (Although the Lib Dems are only weak in Brighton because of some long-past scandal, so it's not the greatest comparison.)
Breakdown:
Chinese vote significantly for Labour with some Tory.
Hispanic vote for Labour with substantial LD and Tory votes.
Gay vote split three ways between Greens, LDs and Labour.
Other, more generic demographic groups probably favor the LDs with a lot of Green and Labour voters and some wealthy Tory voters.
Overall:
Labour: 30%
LDs: 25%
Greens: 20%
Tories: 20%
Others: 5%
Los Angeles CountySuper strong for Labour with strong racial divides; whites mostly split between Tories and LDs (favoring Tories).
Overall:
Labour: 65%
Tories: 20%
LDs: 10%
Others: 5%
Orange County and other LA AreaTories with the LDs controlling some city councils (actually probably the wealthiest ones with the fewest Hispanics), Labour wins the Hispanic vote but has a lot of difficulty getting them to vote.
Tories: 50%
LDs: 25%
Labour: 20%
North CoastStrong LD area with previous Labour strength wiped out by Iraq. Greens also influential, and Tories have a loyal vote that can't grow or shrink.
LDs: 45%
Labour: 20%
Tories: 17%
Greens: 13%
Others: 5%
Sacramento AreaThe city itself is Labour with LD and Tory opposition of equal size, but most of the suburbs and exurbs are heavily Tory with the LDs as token opposition. Davis likes the Greens, and the Greens might actually be the largest group on their council.
Tories: 50%
Labour: 20%
LDs: 20%
Greens: 5%
Others: 5%
Central ValleyNo contest, Tories run away with it. Labour wins the pitiful Hispanic turnout, and the LDs get basically nothing (except some wealthy voters in exurban towns).
Tories: 65%
Labour: 20%
LDs: 10%
The other areas are probably heavily Tory. Overall, the Tories win the state (actually, they probably win almost every state).