Delegate predictions for Saturday in Washington, Nebraska & La

[agcatter]

Ok, I'll start.  There are 78 Washington delegates at stake, 24 in Nebraska, and another 56 in Louisiana (excluding super delegates)

Washington --  Obama 48, Clinton 30

Nebraska --  Obama 15, Clinton 9

Louisiana --  Obama 31, Clinton 25

Total  --  Obama 94 - Clinton 64

Obama strong in Washington, Nebraska a lot like the kansas caucus, and Obama does well in Louisiana.

[agcatter]

Damn, nobody has a prediction?

[JSojourner]

I am not good enough to guess delegate totals.  But I agree that Obama wins each state.

He also wins Virginia, D.C. and Maryland on the 12th.  I am not sure who wins Maine on the 10th.  Wisconsin  and Hawaii are on the 19th.  I bet Obama wins both, too.

But in March, Hillary wins Texas and Ohio.  Obama wins Mississippi, Vermont and Wyoming. Rhode Island is the one I am unsure about in March.  Does Hillary carry it because of her decisive win in neighboring Massachusetts?  Or does Obama carry the day because voters perceive him as more liberal and anti-war?

April, just one state -- and it could be the most important.  Pennsylvania.  Will Hillary go duck hunting? She's ahead in the polls, but Obama could do well in the cities and at State College.  It's anybody's guess.  I'd be pouring money into the Keystone state like it was goin' outta style.

If the race actually makes it to May, wow.  Hillary will win Indiana.  Kentucky could go either way.  I would expect Obama to win West Virginia, North Carolina and Oregon.

[Flying Dog]

I expect Obama to have a good 60+ delegate margin lead by the end of Febuary. I think Ohio is going to be a tie and Hillary will get 10-15 more in texas. Then there will be pressure to wrap things up and that is when there might be a influx of supers to Obama.

[ottermax]

Is WA the largest caucus state?

[agcatter]

I would disagree about Kentucky and West Virginia being Obama's.  West Va is poor white with few blacks or upper income whites.  Kentucky has about 15% blacks but no upper income whites to speak of.  Those states seem taylor made for Hillary.

[bgwah]

I would disagree about Kentucky and West Virginia being Obama's.  West Va is poor white with few blacks or upper income whites.  Kentucky has about 15% blacks but no upper income whites to speak of.  Those states seem taylor made for Hillary.

West Virginia will probably be Clinton's best state. Kentucky will probably resemble Tennessee.

Is WA the largest caucus state?

Yeah, I think so. Minnesota and Colorado are the only other large ones, and we're bigger than them.

[exopolitician]

I would disagree about Kentucky and West Virginia being Obama's.  West Va is poor white with few blacks or upper income whites.  Kentucky has about 15% blacks but no upper income whites to speak of.  Those states seem taylor made for Hillary.

West Virginia will probably be Clinton's best state. Kentucky will probably resemble Tennessee.

Is WA the largest caucus state?

Yeah, I think so. Minnesota and Colorado are the only other large ones, and we're bigger than them.

Washington holds 97 delegates, Louisana 67, 31 Nebraska, and 9 in the Virgin Islands

[agcatter]

I know very little about Washington although I always had the idea that there were a large number of upper income liberals there which favors Obama.  That plus superior organization, I really expect Obama to trounce Hillary there - maybe approaching 2 - 1.  Could be one of Barack's best states.

[Sam Spade]

Hmmm...  I wonder if there's going to be racial voting in Northern LA. 

The county numbers there shouldn't look quite as bad, so long as the blacks show up, because they tend to be more spread out in LA than say AL.

[Angel of Death]

I agree that Obama should *really* clean house in Washington. There's almost no factor one can think of that does not favor him there.