Predict how your county will vote on tuesday
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Author Topic: Predict how your county will vote on tuesday  (Read 3696 times)
Bacon King
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« on: February 02, 2008, 03:44:51 PM »

if you live in a Super Tuesday state.

Barrow County, Georgia

Clinton: 51%
Obama: 41%
Edwards: 7%

Huckabee: 54%
McCain: 25%
Romney: 12%
Paul: 7%

I could be totally wrong, but who knows.
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perdedor
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« Reply #1 on: February 02, 2008, 03:50:12 PM »

Well, I don't live in a Super Tuesday state...but I'll give it a shot anyway:

Travis County (Austin), Texas
Democratic:
Barack Obama: 59%
Hillary Clinton: 41%

Republicans (assuming that Romney, Paul, and Huckabee are still in the race):
John McCain: 43%
Mike Huckabee: 21%
Mitt Romney: 19%
Ron Paul: 17%
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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #2 on: February 02, 2008, 03:52:26 PM »

I wouldn't be too surprised if we voted either way. I have difficulty gauging how strong support is for Clinton because I live in a particular area that is Obama heartland; he may get over two-thirds of the vote in my city. The local congressman is the only NJ congressman to endorse Obama also. However, the Italian Catholic, and to a lesser extent Irish Catholic, votes are very large, as is the Jewish vote (though our congressman is Jewish, which should counteract that).

Also, the county is both wealthy and highly educated, demographics among which Obama does particularly well. Still, we are much more in the shadow of New York than some other parts of New Jersey.

Ultimately, if Clinton wins New Jersey by less than 12% or so, Obama will win here, but otherwise she should win. I will guess Clinton 51%, Obama 48%.
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War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
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« Reply #3 on: February 02, 2008, 04:09:30 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2008, 04:13:52 PM by Evilmexicandictator »

Kootenai County:
Democrats
Clinton 55%
Obama 45%

Republicans:
Huckabee 35%
Romney 31%
McCain 28%
Paul 6%

Kootenai County Democratic voters almost all live in downtown Coeur D' Alene, in the older part of town. They are normally fairly old and white and either are retired or grew up in working class backgrounds. The rest are Latte Liberal, college students that go Community College, or small amounts of young Californians that moved here for outdoors stuff. My county isn't the type of county to go for Obama.
With the Republicans, there are not many Mormons because I live in North Idaho, land of the Evangelicals. There is no such thing as a moderate Republican where I live, really. There will be some who vote McCain though and there is a significant Paul movement.
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Gabu
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2008, 04:10:20 PM »

I predict that it won't.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2008, 04:12:35 PM »



Saratoga County, NY.


D

Clinton 63%
Obama 34%


R

McCain 64%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 10%
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Torie
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2008, 04:15:26 PM »

In Orange County, California, I have zero idea. It should be close between the front runners in both parties.
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Sbane
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2008, 04:26:57 PM »

Orange county will be interesting. Lots of latino voters so that helps Hillary. The key will be if lots of independents and republicans decide to vote for Obama. Also Obama needs to get out the college vote which he is doing a good job of. Here at UC Irvine I have seen a very good Obama organization while Hillary seems to be skipping us lol.

anyways my guess is:
Hillary 51%
Obama 47%

As for republicans this is Mccain/Rudy territory so I expect Mccain to win by a good margin.
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Frodo
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« Reply #8 on: February 02, 2008, 04:37:48 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2008, 05:20:09 PM by Frodo »

We will be voting on the following week after Super Tuesday, but I predict that Arlington County, Virginia will award its votes to Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama given the heavy Latino and immigrant presence in this county, though Obama will score well (assuming he survives long enough) with affluent white voters in northern Arlington. 

And with regard to the GOP race: McCain will be the nominee by February 12, and even if he weren't, he would still win by a landslide here, especially with Rudy Giuliani out of the race. 
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2008, 04:40:39 PM »

I'm not sure. Minneapolis should be strong for Obama, but the suburbs might manage to tip Hennepin County to Clinton.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2008, 04:47:24 PM »
« Edited: February 02, 2008, 04:51:51 PM by Torie »

Orange county will be interesting. Lots of latino voters so that helps Hillary. The key will be if lots of independents and republicans decide to vote for Obama. Also Obama needs to get out the college vote which he is doing a good job of. Here at UC Irvine I have seen a very good Obama organization while Hillary seems to be skipping us lol.

anyways my guess is:
Hillary 51%
Obama 47%

As for republicans this is Mccain/Rudy territory so I expect Mccain to win by a good margin.

Republicans can't vote in the Dem primary. It will be a battle between high income Anglos versus Asians and Hispanics.  There are not very many low income Anglos in Orange County, relatively speaking. The college vote is negligible in Orange County. It ain't Boston, much less Berkeley. There are also almost no blacks, and the few that are tend to be middle class. The laboring class is almost totally Hispanic.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2008, 05:05:48 PM »

Obama:  50%
Clinton:  44%
Edwards:  5%
Other:       1%

McCain:  48%
Romney:  37%
Huckabee:  8%
Paul:          7%

Percentage of Democrats to  Republicans making up caucus goers:

Dems:  70%
Rep:     30%
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2008, 06:46:42 PM »

If NC was voting on tuesday it then my county would vote like this

Guilford County

GOP:
McCain: 49%
Huckabee: 32%
Romney:19%


Dem:
Obama: 56%
Clinton: 44%
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #13 on: February 02, 2008, 06:49:55 PM »

Santa Clara County

Obama 56%
Clinton 43%

McCain 42%
Paul 23%
Romney 21%
Huckabee 13%
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Boris
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« Reply #14 on: February 02, 2008, 07:25:26 PM »

McCain and Obama will win it handily.
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angus
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« Reply #15 on: February 02, 2008, 07:35:42 PM »

Black Hawk County, Iowa:

Obama:  56%
Romney:  42%

Clinton:  53%
Romney:  44%

Obama:  57%
McCain:  41%

Clinton:  55%
McCain:  42%


sure, why not?  It's fairly predictable here.  The county went 55% for Al Gore in 2000 and 55% for John Kerry in 2004.  We could tweak that a little to show differences for Clinton and Obama, but 53 to 57 percent is probably a fair guess if history is any guide.
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #16 on: February 02, 2008, 07:38:25 PM »

Black Hawk County, Iowa:

Obama:  56%
Romney:  42%

Clinton:  53%
Romney:  44%

Obama:  57%
McCain:  41%

Clinton:  55%
McCain:  42%


sure, why not?  It's fairly predictable here.  The county went 55% for Al Gore in 2000 and 55% for John Kerry in 2004.  We could tweak that a little to show differences for Clinton and Obama, but 53 to 57 percent is probably a fair guess if history is any guide.

The question was about the primaries.
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War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
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« Reply #17 on: February 02, 2008, 07:40:44 PM »

Black Hawk County, Iowa:

Obama:  56%
Romney:  42%

Clinton:  53%
Romney:  44%

Obama:  57%
McCain:  41%

Clinton:  55%
McCain:  42%


sure, why not?  It's fairly predictable here.  The county went 55% for Al Gore in 2000 and 55% for John Kerry in 2004.  We could tweak that a little to show differences for Clinton and Obama, but 53 to 57 percent is probably a fair guess if history is any guide.

The question was about the primaries.
He is from Iowa, genius. lol
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #18 on: February 02, 2008, 07:42:17 PM »

Black Hawk County, Iowa:

Obama:  56%
Romney:  42%

Clinton:  53%
Romney:  44%

Obama:  57%
McCain:  41%

Clinton:  55%
McCain:  42%


sure, why not?  It's fairly predictable here.  The county went 55% for Al Gore in 2000 and 55% for John Kerry in 2004.  We could tweak that a little to show differences for Clinton and Obama, but 53 to 57 percent is probably a fair guess if history is any guide.

The question was about the primaries.
He is from Iowa, genius. lol

Sorry. Brain fart.
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Horus
Sheliak5
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« Reply #19 on: February 02, 2008, 07:51:26 PM »

Ohio isn't until March...

The Democrats in my county (Richland), are a split between blacks, working-class whites, a small hispanic community surrounding a migrant area in the north, and middle to upper-class whites such as my family. If Obama pulls ahead, he'll make it competitive. However, if Super Tuesday comes out a near tie, or Hillary favorable, Hillary most likely will.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #20 on: February 02, 2008, 07:59:03 PM »

I consider Champaign Co. IL to be my adoptive US county - so I'll go with that.

At a presidential level it's supported Gore and Kerry by tiny margins - it also happens to be situated in a 60/40 Rep Cong. district. But Champaign city is the bigger of the cities, and about v.high AA population.

I think

Obama 61%
Clinton 37%

Rep.

McCain - 48%
Romney - 31%
Huckabee - 16%
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Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
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« Reply #21 on: February 02, 2008, 08:34:03 PM »

Well, my ancestral county will just have to do Wink. Dougherty, GA, which is majority African-American 60.13%; Rep. Sanford Bishop has endorsed Obama

2004 Presidential: 58.83% Kerry / 40.73% Bush

2004 Senate: 57.79% Majette / 41.10% Isakson

2006 Governor: 64.92% Taylor / Perdue 33.61%

2006 House: 77% Bishop / Hughes 23%

Democratic (predominantly African-American but with significant white minority)

Obama 65%
Clinton 30%
Other 5%

Republican (overwhelmingly white)

Huckabee 45%
McCain 35%
Romney 20%
Other 10%

Pure guess work! Could be a million miles off Cheesy

Dave
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Smash255
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« Reply #22 on: February 03, 2008, 03:27:14 PM »

Nassau, NY

Obama 50..6%
Clinton 48.9%
others 0.5%


McCain  65.2%
Romney 28.7%
Huckabee 5.5%
others 0.6%

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Bacon King
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« Reply #23 on: February 05, 2008, 10:10:59 PM »

if you live in a Super Tuesday state.

Barrow County, Georgia

Clinton: 51%
Obama: 41%
Edwards: 7%

Huckabee: 54%
McCain: 25%
Romney: 12%
Paul: 7%

I could be totally wrong, but who knows.

Actual results:

Obama: 52%
Clinton 44%
Edwards 3%

Huckabee: 44%
Romney: 26%
McCain: 26%
Paul: 2%
Giuliani: 1%

eh, not too bad.
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