Winning California = Democratic nomination?

[Jacobtm]

Will the winner of California be guaranteed the Democratic nomination? The way I see it is that if Obama manages to win California, that it will coincide with a large national swing towards him, that will give him not only the prestige and delegates of winning the largest state, but also victories in many other states. This will give him all the momentum he needs to wrap up the nomination. However, if Clinton wins, it will likely be indicative that the Obama campaign hasn't been able to sway people to vote against Clinton, and Obama will likely get a good amount less than Clinton in the polls.

[Gustaf]

I don't think so. If Obama wins California narrowly he won't necessarily be winning enough nationally to get the nomination. If Clinton wins California I'd say she gets the nomination though. But the Democratic race is sufficiently close and competitive that it's hard to predict based on these single variables.

[Democratic Hawk]

If the Democratic nomination remains essentially competitive following Super Tuesday, the California 'winner' will gain momentum as the contest moves beyond

I expect more endorsements to come his or her way too. Many prominent Democrats seem to be content with sitting on the fence until one candidate or the other seems near certain to win the nomination. It's called jumping on the bandwagon

Dave

[John Dibble]

If Obama wins CA then it will probably give him a huge boost in terms of momentum due to the fact that it's been a place where Clinton has been favored heavily in polls up until now. If he comes close it'll still help him a little. On the other hand if Clinton wins it by anything less than a significant margin then I don't think it will help her much given she was expected to win. However, CA alone will not provide either candidate with the momentum to lock up the nomination.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

No. In terms of delegates there's barely any difference in a 51/49 race for either candidate.

[MODU]

No, it won't.  If Killary or Obama win with 50%, they will be splitting the delegates near evenly, and as a result, have no real change in the comptition.  It would take a significant victory in order to "make a statement."

[TomC]

 If Hillary loses California, and doesn't pick up some surprises in other places, I think she'll have a momentum and possibly money problem. The states the week after this favor Obama and she can't wait until Texas to get momentum back.