Kerry +3 in Ohio in new ARG poll

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry 48
Bush 45
Nader 2

August 9-11
600 OH LVs

http://americanresearchgroup.com/ohg/

Also, I saw two new national polls on Inside Politics today...Gallup had Bush +3 and another one (don't remember the firm) had Kerry +2.....no links yet.

[Beet]

Kerry just had his convention, outspent Bush in advertising over the past 3 months, and with the 9/11 anniversay and the bulk of Bush's campaign yet to come. And he's only at 48%. Doesn't look good.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I suppose you could be pessimistic if you think Bush will get a big bounce from his convention, but since nothing else Bush (or Kerry) has done in this campaign has moved the numbers much, I don't see why one would assume this.

[Gabu]

Nothing Bush nor Kerry has done has ever moved the poll numbers that much.  They've run ad after ad and have both run into a brick wall.  Kerry had his convention and not much happened.  I don't see why people seem to think that Bush is suddenly going to get a 10+ point bounce from his convention.  I don't think the Democratic convention failed to produce a bounce because it was a flop.  It went very well; it's just that moving the poll numbers more than a couple percent seems to be a complete impossiblity in this election.

I predict that the Republican convention will have the exact same minimal effect exactly as the Democratic convention did.

[Defarge]

Kerry will lose his extremely small lead after the Republican Convention.

[agcatter]

Ten point bounce?  No way anyone really believes that.  I'd say 2 to 3 points which puts the race dead even going into the debates.

[The Vorlon]

Also, I saw two new national polls on Inside Politics today...Gallup had Bush +3 and another one (don't remember the firm) had Kerry +2.....no links yet.

The other poll was a PEW - 1166 Registered voters.

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=221

(1166 Registered out of 1512 Adults = 77% are registered)

Kerry 47
Bush 45
Nader 2

Could not find a head to had number.

Sample has a 1% and a bit of change more GOP than Dems in it.

If you believe Gallup, (who says there are a fraction of a % more GOP self identifiers than Dems) this party ID is just about perfect.

If you believe PEW (who says there are 4% more Dems than GOP) then this PEW survey shouldl be knocked back a few points in Kerry's direction)

Odd for a PEW survey, PEW is ultra stable and very very well done on average, but they almost always pull a few poionts to the left.  This time they did not.

Almost certainly just a bit of random statistical noise...

Oh well... as I always say...

"Hey.. I'ts one poll...."

[Gabu]

Ten point bounce?  No way anyone really believes that.  I'd say 2 to 3 points which puts the race dead even going into the debates.

Maybe that's a bit hyperbolic, but there are some people that seem to think that Bush is going to be substantially ahead following the Republican convention even though nothing else has ever changed the percentages very much.

[The Vorlon]

Ten point bounce?  No way anyone really believes that.  I'd say 2 to 3 points which puts the race dead even going into the debates.

Maybe that's a bit hyperbolic, but there are some people that seem to think that Bush is going to be substantially ahead following the Republican convention even though nothing else has ever changed the percentages very much.

When there are only 8% undecided, it is hard to get a 10 point bounce

[Beet]

Ten point bounce?  No way anyone really believes that.  I'd say 2 to 3 points which puts the race dead even going into the debates.

Maybe that's a bit hyperbolic, but there are some people that seem to think that Bush is going to be substantially ahead following the Republican convention even though nothing else has ever changed the percentages very much.

Well, having seen the Democratic convention, I doubt they are going to try the same thing. The biggest complaints about the Democrats' convention was that "it was all a show". So Bush will probably lay out some solid new proposals at his convention (internally poll-tested, perhaps) if he really wants to make use of his convention. That will actually be somewhat interesting.

Plus, I expect a number of other things to help him.

He could look good compared to the demonstrators outside, especially if anarchists or rioters are present.

The Sept. 11 anniversary is always there, and of course Bush's comments will get more coverage because he is President.

The Afghan election is on October 9, which should provide some good coverage, with 9 million out of 9.5 million eligible voters already registered.

An October surprise may be lined up in the way of foreign troops-especially perhaps from Russia, offering to come in and supplement US troops in Iraq. This administration has shown a penchant for surprises along with its secrecy: the handover date was early, which was wise. Bush's Thanksgiving visit to the troops in Iraq was one of the high points in his presidency, I don't think Karl Rove has forgotten about that.

Plus, al-Sadr may be captured or killed sometime in the coming weeks.

Overall, Rove was a student of Atwater and probably worships his old mentor, whose biggest accomplishment was the 1988 election, so he's probably going to try for something similiar. Personally, I'm a bit surprised the Democrats' havent taken more advantage of Bush's friendly relations with Ken Lay.

[Keystone Phil]

Ten point bounce?  No way anyone really believes that.  I'd say 2 to 3 points which puts the race dead even going into the debates.

 Personally, I'm a bit surprised the Democrats' havent taken more advantage of Bush's friendly relations with Ken Lay.

Because Ken Lay had friendly relations with Clinton, too

[The Vorlon]

Ten point bounce?  No way anyone really believes that.  I'd say 2 to 3 points which puts the race dead even going into the debates.

 Personally, I'm a bit surprised the Democrats' havent taken more advantage of Bush's friendly relations with Ken Lay.

Because Ken Lay had friendly relations with Clinton, too

DNC Chairman Terry McCauliffe has his hand buried in the Global Crossing cookie jar up to his shoulder as well...

The big firms buy off both parties in roughly equaly amounts.

The Dems are owned by Trail Lawyers and Bureaucrats, the GOP by drug companies and oild firms..

Take you pick

[MODU]

And let's not forget that this is an ARG poll, so it's probably closer to a tie.

[agcatter]

Beet, I think you are giving Rove WAAAAY too much credit.  He's way overrated.  In fact, I think he is the best thing your side has going for it.

[zachman]

Beet, I think you are giving Rove WAAAAY too much credit.  He's way overrated.  In fact, I think he is the best thing your side has going for it.

He has done an amazing job tooling up Bush's image and keeping Republicans loyal to him. If the Democrats were that corrupt, the party bosses couldn't keep support together.

[agcatter]

Corrupt?  Rove spins and twists just like the Democratic political consultants on the other side.  That's what political operatives do.  My argument is that he's lousy at it.

[zachman]

Corrupt?  Rove spins and twists just like the Democratic political consultants on the other side.  That's what political operatives do.  My argument is that he's lousy at it.

He's masterful at keeping Republicans loyal. Its incredible that Bush still gets the vote of about 90% of Republicans.

[agcatter]

I don't think you can credit Rove.  Republicans have a history of being more cohesive than Dems.

[zachman]

I don't think you can credit Rove.  Republicans have a history of being more cohesive than Dems.

He is quick and crafty. He effectively put together a strategy to keep Republicans firm about the war after the Abu-Ghraib scandal, and it worked. There have been so many times when the Republican base should have cracked, but Rove's team has sent out a message that kept them confident and determined.

[agcatter]

Maybe so.  I keep thinking how he blew a 3 to 4 point lead in the last week of the 2000 campaign by trying to sit on the lead.  He wasted three of those days having Bush stump in hopeless California which wasted time and resources.

[AuH2O]

Rove is very capable.. no one is perfect, but compare his record to Shrum's. Enough said.

And he has had a long time to prepare for the coming months. He still is making some mistakes, but on Election Day, he's going to reveal his final work... and his masterpiece.

[John]

Thats Just a Poll

[Rococo4]

Rove is very capable.. no one is perfect, but compare his record to Shrum's. Enough said.

And he has had a long time to prepare for the coming months. He still is making some mistakes, but on Election Day, he's going to reveal his final work... and his masterpiece.

I sure as hell hope you are right........I can tell you though Bush will win Ohio.....I see it here everyday

[opebo]

Corrupt?  Rove spins and twists just like the Democratic political consultants on the other side.  That's what political operatives do.  My argument is that he's lousy at it.

He's masterful at keeping Republicans loyal. Its incredible that Bush still gets the vote of about 90% of Republicans.

No it isn't.. I don't think you understand Republicans very well.

[JNB]

  Rococo, how can you tell that Bush will win Ohio. Here in Columbus and its suburbs, there is little outward support for Bush. The displaced working class certainly is not going to vote for Bush, I can tell you that.