TX PrimR: IVR Polls: Huckabee slightly ahead of McCain

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Texas President by IVR Polls on 2008-01-10

Summary:

Huckabee:	26%
McCain:	24%
Thompson, F:	12%
Romney:	11%
Giuliani:	10%
Other:	9%
Undecided:	8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Eraserhead]

I guess there isn't much of a reason for Huckabee to drop out. He might have a shot at a lot of these southern states.

[Mr. Morden]

I guess there isn't much of a reason for Huckabee to drop out. He might have a shot at a lot of these southern states.

It's never going to add up to a majority of delegates though.

[M]

That's Jan 10. I can promise you that McCain will win Texas.

[Cubby]

Texas Polls from the Atlas Primary Poll Map:

Date             Source          Lead    M      G      R      T       H    Oth Und MOE Sample #C

2008-01-10  IVR Polls       H +2    24% 10% 11% 12% 26% 9% 8% 4% 725 L 0
2007-12-12  IVR Polls       H +13  7% 16% 14% 14% 29% 11% 9% 4% 535 L 0
2007-10-18  IVR Polls       G +5    6% 24% 14% 19% 14% 17% 6% 4% 532 L 0
2007-08-29  IVR Polls       T +4    8% 21% 15% 25% 13% 13% 5% 4% 570 L 0
2007-06-19  IVR Polls       T +8    13% 21% 9% 29% 4% 13% 11% 4% 736 L 0
2007-05-07  O.S.              M +4   27% 23% 6% 11% 0% 13% 20% 10% 303 L 0
2007-03-19  ARG              G +10  20% 30% 13% 12% 2% 12% 11% 4% 600 L 0


Talk about undecided voters. Every major candidate has been in the lead at some point except the flip-flopping hack. For once Texas bigotry will have a positive outcome (denying him a win there).

I suspect the Rio Grande Valley, El Paso, and Bexar (San Antonio) will be strong for McCain. Possibly Harris (Houston) and Dallas, where there will be beaucoup de moderates. Huckabee will sweep dozens of rural counties. I can't predict where Collin, Denton and Montgomery will go. They are more sophisticated than the Huckabee areas but just as conservative. If Huckabee is too populist for them, and McCain (seemingly) too liberal, could they go to Romney? He seems to have done well among educated conservatives. Travis and Williamson will go to McCain, but should see a great showing for Ron Paul.

[Mr. Morden]

Talk about undecided voters. Every major candidate has been in the lead at some point except the flip-flopping hack. For once Texas bigotry will have a positive outcome (denying him a win there).

Not as crazy as the Michigan polls, where Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Romney, and Thompson all led in at least one poll between August and December:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008R/polls.php?fips=26

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In all likelihood, the race will be over by then anyway, which would render all of this moot. 

[Lief 🗽]

Doesn't matter. McCain will be the nominee by March when we vote.