Gaming the States: Illinois

[JSojourner]

Must be solid D, right?  Republicans sometimes say there are enough downstate votes but I don't know. 

We'll push this one through pretty quickly, I bet...

[Aizen]

Safe D

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Clinton v. Romney: Clinton 57-42
Clinton v. Huckabee: Clinton 60-39
Clinton v. Giuliani: Clinton 55-44
Clinton v. McCain: Clinton 54-45

Obama v. Romney: Obama 62-37
Obama v. Huckabee: Obama 65-34
Obama v. Giuliani: Obama 61-38
Obama v. McCain: Obama 58-41

[HardRCafé]

Hillary Clinton would have to treat Barack Obama like Abner Louima for Illinois to be a swing state.  And she still would win it in the end.

[Person Man]

55-44 McCain v. Clinton
58-41 Obama v. Romney

[CPT MikeyMike]

Safe Democrat pretty much. A lot would have to go wrong for the Republican to win the state and if Obama is the nominee, the GOP shouldn't touch the state with a 10 foot pole.

BTW: What is Obama's senate approval rating?

Clinton: 54%
McCain: 45%

Updated map

McCain: 156
Clinton: 148

[Boris]

Mike, does your scenario project an overall 51-48, 52-47ish McCain popular vote victory?

[MarkWarner08]

When did Illinois finally shift from marginal to solid D territory? Was 2000 the year when most political observers finally realized this?

[CPT MikeyMike]

Mike, does your scenario project an overall 51-48, 52-47ish McCain popular vote victory?

I really don't know yet.

After the map is 100% done, with each state percent breakdown, I could then ballpark the national vote using '04 turnout. I think McCain probably does win it.

[afleitch]

Mike, does your scenario project an overall 51-48, 52-47ish McCain popular vote victory?

I really don't know yet.

After the map is 100% done, with each state percent breakdown, I could then ballpark the national vote using '04 turnout. I think McCain probably does win it.

He will considering you've given him Ohio.

[Boris]

Mike, does your scenario project an overall 51-48, 52-47ish McCain popular vote victory?

I really don't know yet.

After the map is 100% done, with each state percent breakdown, I could then ballpark the national vote using '04 turnout. I think McCain probably does win it.

He will considering you've given him Ohio.

True. But I was just wondering because Clinton is doing much worse than John Kerry did, both in terms of states won and the actual popular votes within the states. This scenario would almost certainly result in McCain receiving a higher share of the national popular vote than George W. Bush did.

Kinda having some trouble believing that, especially when the Clintons are a) far more politically astute than John Kerry is and b) the national 'climate' or whatever strongly benefits the Democrats. One of those two would have to change for McCain to do better than Bush did in 2004.

[Adlai Stevenson]

ILLINOIS -
55% (D) Clinton
43% (R) McCain


58% (D) Clinton
40% (R) Romney


60% (D) Obama
38% (R) McCain


62% (D) Obama
36% (R) Romney


In the right circumstances I could see Obama winning his homestate by 2-1. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hillary Clinton would have to treat Barack Obama like Abner Louima for Illinois to be a swing state.  And she still would win it in the end.

J. J. disagrees. He's predicting it votes Republican if Hillary is nominated. Haha.

Which based on the 2004 CNN exit polls would basically require every single black in the state staying home and not voting and a decent chunk of Hispanics also doing so.

[HardRCafé]

Kinda having some trouble believing that, especially when the Clintons are a) far more politically astute than John Kerry is

One of them anyway.