Most dense county to vote for McCain

[Torie]

I still think that the region could change its voting habits eventually because the Democrats are gaining support among the demographics that are Orange County. Plus with Hispanic growth in areas like Santa Ana, the county should trend toward Democrats. I doubt it will happen soon, but why is it so strongly anti-Obama. Are people down there really socially conservative? McCain probably fits perfectly for many in SoCal, but as the GOP becomes more religious, won't they lose votes in SoCal? Southern California is so complex and so big! It's great for McCain, but it seems like some of the voters should be good for Obama too.

Bush almost carried Santa Ana (80% Hispanic in population, maybe 60% in voters). The Hispanics in OC have a big GOP cohort. The most Dem city in OC is Laguna Beach (also one of the richest cities in OC, in a "rich" county), which one poster mentioned, which Kerry carried by about a 15% margin. It is odd, even "horrible" dumps like Stanton, break about near even between the parties in OC.

[Alcon]

Not only about even, but Bush won Stanton by over 10 points.  Seems to me (and Torie can correct me if I'm wrong) that a lot of Orange County's Republican-ness is driven by not being a part of Los Angeles County.

There are some insanely GOP parts of Orange County, like Villa Park.  I think that the OC's libertarian-ness is over-rated, and it's just a conservative area with some socially tolerant leans because it's not exactly heavily evangelical.  But I know very little of Southern Cali.

[Torie]

Not only about even, but Bush won Stanton by over 10 points.  Seems to me (and Torie can correct me if I'm wrong) that a lot of Orange County's Republican-ness is driven by not being a part of Los Angeles County.

There are some insanely GOP parts of Orange County, like Villa Park.  I think that the OC's libertarian-ness is over-rated, and it's just a conservative area with some socially tolerant leans because it's not exactly heavily evangelical.  But I know very little of Southern Cali.

OC Republicans don't feel threatened by the religious right because it doesn't exist in OC, nor in a way that is material, in California as a whole. So it is about money, and yes, not many peaceniks around. LA county is invisible. Where is that place? OC works pretty well. The Hispanics work hard, servicing the rest of us, and want to move up, not much high cutting edge culture, lots of techies, and the "reaction" is against the kookiness in Sacramento, rather than anything in particular in LA. If Orange County were in Kentucky, or Utah, we would become Dems, or many of us would .

Villa Park has lots of big homes, rather cheap per square foot for the 4,000 to 6,000 and up in a few cases square foot pads, and an elite school district, and thus are packed with kids. Perfect GOP country.

Now on my block, 23 houses on a single loaded street (2300-2800 square feet homes with awesome views and small yards), there are none living there below the age of majority, none. But the price per square foot of the homes is very high. That is a kid killer. (When the "librals" invade into  South Orange County in a material way, my block will be an attractive "target.") Folks with kids want a maximum number of square feet that they can afford. Space is precious from the next generation!

[ottermax]

I really don't like OC. Not because of politics, but because there isn't really much there but suburbs and Disneyland. Nice place to live, for maybe a few days.
I don't understand why the GOP is so strong there. OC really is not that different from the Eastside where I live, but we lean Dem. Maybe it is the dryness and lack of parklands in OC.

[Torie]

I really don't like OC. Not because of politics, but because there isn't really much there but suburbs and Disneyland. Nice place to live, for maybe a few days.
I don't understand why the GOP is so strong there. OC really is not that different from the Eastside where I live, but we lean Dem. Maybe it is the dryness and lack of parklands in OC.

There isn't much in OC to entertain the cultural cutting edge, although it's great for surfers and sailors and the like. I decamp to SF (where my brother lives, in Alameda) and LA periodically to get my fix. OC is an easy place to live day to day. As to park lands, there is one that runs from about 2 blocks from my home to about 15 miles north to the city limits of Newport Beach. The place is packed with parks, particularly in the southern half of the county. Tons of bike trails too. As a surburban landscape, southern OC is really quite beautiful, with the hills, the mountains, the careful zoning, the landscape maintenance districts along the roadways, the strict rules about signage, and the open space zones, that have been mandated to be created by developers for about 30 years now. It is not a bad place to live, as a place that is realistic to live, if one wants a high paying job to boot, particularly if one has school aged kids.

[ottermax]

I really don't like OC. Not because of politics, but because there isn't really much there but suburbs and Disneyland. Nice place to live, for maybe a few days.
I don't understand why the GOP is so strong there. OC really is not that different from the Eastside where I live, but we lean Dem. Maybe it is the dryness and lack of parklands in OC.

There isn't much in OC to entertain the cultural cutting edge, although it's great for surfers and sailors and the like. I decamp to SF (where my brother lives, in Alameda) and LA periodically to get my fix. It is an easy place to live day to day. As to parklands, there is one that runs from about 2 blocks from my home to about 15 miles north to the city limits of Newport Beach. The place is packed with parks, particularly in the southern half of the county. Tons of bike trails too. As a surburban landscape, southern OC is really quite beautiful, with the hills, the mountains, the careful zoning, the landscape maintenance districts along the roadways, the strict rules about signage, and the open space zones, that have been mandated to be created by developers for about 30 years now. It is not a bad place to live, as a place that is realistic to live, if one wants a high paying job to boot, particularly if one has school aged kids.

OC sounds ridiculously similar to the Eastside. Which is why I don't understand the strength of the GOP there. Do people just happen to be conservative? I think the OC is more diverse than the Eastside, yet only a few towns here vote for the GOP. Why?

[Torie]

Because the Eastside of the Bay (or is this some other "Eastside,") is not remotely like OC. That's why. Surely you don't mean the "Eastside" of Manhattan!

[Sbane]

Because the Eastside of the Bay (or is this some other "Eastside,") is not remotely like OC. That's why. Surely you don't mean the "Eastside" of Manhattan!

He means the eastside of Seattle. Places like Redmond and Issaquah and other suburban areas around there. I think the difference between OC and the eastside is the different issues of importance. People in OC care more about economics and things like tax cut, thus they vote for Bush. People in the eastside care about social issues and the war, thus voting for Kerry.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Bush won Richmond county NY by 14 points, so even if it weren't for the race factor, it'd be a tough one for the Dems. Obama definitely won't win it.

interesting that Gore won it by like seven in 2000. And won more votes than Kerry did four years later...

True, though 2000 was a bit of an aberration as it has historically been pretty Republican.

Staten Island vs. the national average:

1988 - Bush 23.5 (R +15.
1992 - Bush 9.4 (R +3.
1996 - Clinton 9.7 (D +1.2)
2000 - Gore 7.0 (D +6.5)
2004 - Bush 13.7 (R +11.2)

Probably 2004 was the aberration due to 9/11.

Bush won Richmond county NY by 14 points, so even if it weren't for the race factor, it'd be a tough one for the Dems. Obama definitely won't win it.

Are you saying Obama's race will be a bigger issue in Staten Island than overall?

Unfortunately yes; Staten Island isn't the most racially tolerant area in the world.

I think Obama can win Pinellas, FL.....it was extremely close in 2004. Probably will be again but I think Obama squeaks by.

Staten Island = White Flight

[Sam Spade]

Bush won Richmond county NY by 14 points, so even if it weren't for the race factor, it'd be a tough one for the Dems. Obama definitely won't win it.

interesting that Gore won it by like seven in 2000. And won more votes than Kerry did four years later...

True, though 2000 was a bit of an aberration as it has historically been pretty Republican.

Staten Island vs. the national average:

1988 - Bush 23.5 (R +15.
1992 - Bush 9.4 (R +3.
1996 - Clinton 9.7 (D +1.2)
2000 - Gore 7.0 (D +6.5)
2004 - Bush 13.7 (R +11.2)

Probably 2004 was the aberration due to 9/11.

Bush won Richmond county NY by 14 points, so even if it weren't for the race factor, it'd be a tough one for the Dems. Obama definitely won't win it.

Are you saying Obama's race will be a bigger issue in Staten Island than overall?

Unfortunately yes; Staten Island isn't the most racially tolerant area in the world.

I think Obama can win Pinellas, FL.....it was extremely close in 2004. Probably will be again but I think Obama squeaks by.

Staten Island = White Flight

Staten Island isn't the most racially tolerant part of the world - I never knew that. 

And if we're going to start talking about racial tolerance in the NYC suburbs, we really shouldn't end in Staten Island.

[Sbane]

Bush almost carried Santa Ana (80% Hispanic in population, maybe 60% in voters). The Hispanics in OC have a big GOP cohort. The most Dem city in OC is Laguna Beach (also one of the richest cities in OC, in a "rich" county), which one poster mentioned, which Kerry carried by about a 15% margin. It is odd, even "horrible" dumps like Stanton, break about near even between the parties in OC.

Torie I have never quite understood why "dumps" like Stanton, Anaheim(excluding the hills), Santa Ana are competitive. Stanton I would think would be a tossup in most elections while Santa Ana and Anaheim should be solid democrat, yet that is not the case. And we can't blame it all on the Vietnamese. Do you have any theory why they vote this way?