Huck's silly little ploy may have indeed worked. If I was tempted to switch my prediction this late, I would say Huckabee by a couple.
Former Rep. Jim Leach, one of my political heroes, predicted Huckabee would win; Chuck Todd concurred. A couple months ago the Wall Street Journal published an article detailing the rise of protectionist thought in the GOP, it appears the Republican base is rebelling against the Republican donor base. If Romney loses, this caucus may be an omen of the fall of the Chamber of Commerce/Club for Growth wing of the GOP.
Huckabee's message should theoretically work better than any of the other Republicans in Iowa - I think I said that for quite a long while. I know I always said that the Thompson boomlet was the one keeping him down throughout the summer.
Anyway, the trend will continue if Democrats keep gaining in higher-income areas and Republicans balance that by going after lower-income white areas.
But the trends on trade issues are more of a national trend than a party trend anyway and those organizations mentioned are more than trade organizations - in fact I would say tax and spending policy are their big interests.
While CFG and COC don't focus solely on free-trade (they obvioulsy care about taxes and regulations), that issue has become the crux of the populist argument of Huckabee/Edwards.
I believe the national election comes down to the tale of two counties: Oakland and Macomb. The former is replete with white-collar workers, the professionals who thrive in the globalized economy, who once were strong GOP voters. Macomb, a county full of blue-collar Catholic voters, was a John F. Kennedy stronghold in the 1960 election. In 2004 Kerry carried Oakland by a narrow margin; Bush won Macomb, a county which he lost four years before. If the Democrats can nominate a candidate who wins Oakland and Macomb -- they'll be unstoppable in the general election. The GOP must find a way to hold affluent voters without alienating middle and lower class voters who are attracted to the Republican Party's anti-illegal immigration, anti-free trade, anti-higher taxes platform.
Mitt Romney personifies the "boss" -- something which Huckabee the vox populi candidate has deftly used that against him the entire campaign. If Huck wins, that's a victory for the grassroots over the gra$$roots.
