If Obama Wins Iowa And New Hampshire How Badly Is Clinton Hurt?

[Lincoln Republican]

Polls are now showing Obama tied with Clinton in New Hampshire.

There is as well a possibility of an Obama win in Iowa.

If Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how much damage does this do to the Clinton campaign, given the fact that she has been ordained as the front runner for well over a year?

Please discuss.

[Verily]

If that happened, she wouldn't be able to salvage anything. It'd be over.

[NDN]

If that happened, she wouldn't be able to salvage anything. It'd be over.

And good riddance too.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah, she'd be hurt. She'd be able to fight another day, but she couldn't afford another single loss, but with the momentum garnered from that - that'd be highly doubtful.

[agcatter]

Hard to say.  It would definitely cost her South Carolina I think.  No doubt she'd be hurt badly, but she does have a HUGE lead presently in the Super Tuesday states.

[Padfoot]

Hard to say.  It would definitely cost her South Carolina I think.  No doubt she'd be hurt badly, but she does have a HUGE lead presently in the Super Tuesday states.

I agree, Clinton would probably lose SC but if she were able to salvage any of the other early voting states then super Tuesday would probably still be very much up for grabs.

[Erc]

The schedule on the Democratic side will make for a much different January than the Republicans will be having.

The fact that Michigan doesn't matter one iota hurts Hillary, as her 'win' there will mean absolutely nothing.

This means there's an entire 11 days between NH & NV.  Nevada will be key.  If she can pull off a win there despite losses in IA & NH, she'll have a fighting chance.

Otherwise, she'll go on to lose SC a week later.

Florida isn't as completely useless as Michigan, but the fact that neither candidate can campaign there makes it interesting--and probably more sensitive to national media trends than other states.  If she still loses in the straw poll there, it's a very bad sign for next week's Super Tuesday.

[Politico]

She will hurt and lose her leads in most of the Super Tuesday states. That said, she will continue to fight and may do well enough on Super Tuesday to continue well into February and March. Or it's possible she'll go on to lose most every state by an overwhelming margin to Obama, although I think that is more unlikely than the former scenario.

[The Vorlon]

Polls are now showing Obama tied with Clinton in New Hampshire.

There is as well a possibility of an Obama win in Iowa.

If Obama wins Iowa and New Hampshire, how much damage does this do to the Clinton campaign, given the fact that she has been ordained as the front runner for well over a year?

Please discuss.

Hillary's "lead" outside of New Hampshire + Iowa is more a function of name recognition than anything else.

If Obama wins Iowa + New Hampshire most of that "lead" will vaporize as fast as you can say "negative attack ads"

I see two scenarios if Obama pulls off the double....

Firstly, Hillary will saturate the airwaves attacking Obama.  This may work - Obama has presented a number of targets that can be hit, and the MSM remains Hillary's ace in the whole, they have always been, and remain, utterly and totally in the tank for her.

This scorched earth strategy could backlash against Hillary - her negatives are already very high - and then it's Obama in a walk - or Hillary could find the right balance and take Obama down.

As a libertarian with previous strong ties to the GOP, I am nor sure who I am rooting for.

The GOP needs a "time out" - they need to be in the wilderness for a while.  The Bush II reign has been a betrayal to everything libertarian leaning republicans have every believed - the party has lost it's soul.  The need to find their soul again, and they place you do that is in opposition.

If Hillary gets the nomination, the GOP stands a decent chance of holding the White House (I think Hillary would be a slight favorite, but we would have a real horse race) , and in terms of rebuilding a party I could actually support, I am not sure this is the prefered option.

I kinda want Hillary to win, so the GOP has a shot, but I also hope Obama wins so America can have a fresh start, and the GOP can rebuild it's self so they are once again fit to govern.