who would emerge from a split convention?

[© tweed]

if the conventions were split, who do you think would be drafted at the respective conventions?

Gore is the obvious and logical choice for the Dems, but the Republican side would be more sticky.   any of McCain, Gingrich, Rice, or Jeb are plausible.

[MODU]

Hmmm, so you are looking outside of the candidates that are actually running?  I'll have to think about that one.

[Mr. Morden]

It seems more likely that the top two candidates would peel off enough delegates from the 3rd, 4th, 5th place etc. finishers until one of them had enough delegates to win.  People would probably claim that it was "undemocratic" to go outside the top finishers in the primaries for a nominee, and so there would be some backlash if they tried that (even though that's the way it always used to work).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It seems more likely that the top two candidates would peel off enough delegates from the 3rd, 4th, 5th place etc. finishers until one of them had enough delegates to win.  People would probably claim that it was "undemocratic" to go outside the top finishers in the primaries for a nominee, and so there would be some backlash if they tried that (even though that's the way it always used to work).

While I agree with that sentiment, if there were a draft movement, the Democrats would go for Gore, and the GOP would probably pick McCain.

[StateBoiler]

I'm not sure in today's day and age if voters would accept a candidacy that appeared from nowhere.

[© tweed]

I'm not sure in today's day and age if voters would accept a candidacy that appeared from nowhere.

it's unlikely, but a set of circumstances could arise IMO.  if there's a 7-month long rivalry between, say, Romney and Huckabee, or Clinton and Obama, with a lot of bad blood and hate and violence, and with Kucinich/Gravel and Paul holding just enough delegates to prevent a majority, an 'elder statesman' like Gore or Dean (sort of) or Gingrich or etc. could rise and heal the divide.

[Mr. Morden]

While I agree with that sentiment, if there were a draft movement, the Democrats would go for Gore, and the GOP would probably pick McCain.

You do realize that McCain is already a candidate, right?  So then how would that be a draft movement?

[MODU]

While I agree with that sentiment, if there were a draft movement, the Democrats would go for Gore, and the GOP would probably pick McCain.

You do realize that McCain is already a candidate, right?  So then how would that be a draft movement?

I think he meant in terms that Romney and Huckabee (and Rudy in that case) are the ones who are splitting the delegates.

[© tweed]

it would be difficult to draft McCain if the primary voters had already rejected him.  it'd be easier to draft a non-candidate.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

If the Democrats were split, I would say that they would nominate former Vice President Al Gore to be their nominee, whilst for the Republican's it's hard to say. Who would be a candidate acceptable to the GOP, that hasn't been rejected by the GOP primary voters?

[Mr. Morden]

I'm not sure in today's day and age if voters would accept a candidacy that appeared from nowhere.

it's unlikely, but a set of circumstances could arise IMO.  if there's a 7-month long rivalry between, say, Romney and Huckabee, or Clinton and Obama, with a lot of bad blood and hate and violence, and with Kucinich/Gravel and Paul holding just enough delegates to prevent a majority, an 'elder statesman' like Gore or Dean (sort of) or Gingrich or etc. could rise and heal the divide.

I suppose that *could* happen, but it's really really unlikely, seeing as how a brokered convention is unlikely in the first place, let alone a brokered convention in which the top finishers are unable to peel away enough delegates from other candidates to cobble together a majority after a few ballots.

The scenario I actually think is more likely is if someone clinches the nomination in February, but then, some time in the summer before the convention, they either die or are forced to drop their candidacy because some gigantic scandal blows up in their face, which would be certain to doom them in the general election.  Who do all of their delegates back then?  That's the kind of scenario that might be more likely to lead to the emergence of Gore or someone else who isn't currently in the race.

[WalterMitty]

colin powell could emerge for the republicans.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

While I agree with that sentiment, if there were a draft movement, the Democrats would go for Gore, and the GOP would probably pick McCain.

You do realize that McCain is already a candidate, right?  So then how would that be a draft movement?

I was talking more about Gore than McCain.  There are so many GOP candidates who were, at one time or another, frontrunners, that they can stay within their ranks.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

colin powell could emerge for the republicans.

I highly doubt if the Republicans were in that situation they would nominate former SoS as their nominee. He's hated by the right for his stances on social policy and considered by many in the party to be a RINO. Thus, I don't see the GOP nominating him.

[True Democrat]

I think the Republicans should introduce a two thirds rule, which would just make it way more fun.

[MODU]

colin powell could emerge for the republicans.

His wife won't let him.

[Gustaf]

I think McCain could be the choice of the GOP. On the Dem side, I guess Gore if he wanted to. I kind of doubt the Clinton camp, which would presumaby have to be in on the deal, would accept Gore. Besides, the chances of the Dem convention splitting is minimal given that unless Edwards gets back in the game in Iowa there will only be two candidates involved. Perhaps one of them will have to bribe Edwards, but that will be it. On the GOP side it is fully possible that a 3-way split (or worse) will emerge.

[Gustaf]

I think McCain could be the choice of the GOP. On the Dem side, I guess Gore if he wanted to. Though I kind of doubt the Clinton camp, which would presumaby have to be in on the deal, would accept Gore. Besides, the chances of the Dem convention splitting is minimal given that unless Edwards gets back in the game in Iowa there will only be two candidates involved. Perhaps one of them will have to bribe Edwards, but that will be it. On the GOP side it is fully possible that a 3-way split (or worse) will emerge.

[gorkay]

I doubt that a brokered convention is possible in this day and age.

[Floridude]

I would tend to lean toward McCain, or maybe Newt (out of the blue) on the Republican side in a brokered convention.  I think that type of thing would be awesome for the American political system.   I wish conventions actually mattered.

[Хahar 🤔]

I think the Republicans should introduce a two thirds rule, which would just make it way more fun.

That's the only way I'd watch the RNC.

LET'S DO IT!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111111

[HappyWarrior]

What about Condi in a GOP deadlock?  Would that be possible?

[pragmatic liberal]

As others have noted, this is extremely unlikely in this day and age, but I suppose it is still possible.

For the Democrats, I agree that Al Gore would be the obvious choice.

If the Republicans deadlock and none of the declared candidates can assemble enough delegates to win the nomination, I'd suspect the GOP would go to someone with decent establishment bonafides who is still seen as kind of an outsider -- you know, someone who is distant enough from the major candidates and factions to be an acceptable compromise figure.

Of these, I would actually pick some more obscure names. Sen. John Kyl of Arizona, for example. Or Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. Maybe even former OMB director, former US Trade Rep and former Congressman Rob Portman of Ohio.

[jimrtex]

if the conventions were split, who do you think would be drafted at the respective conventions?

Gore is the obvious and logical choice for the Dems, but the Republican side would be more sticky.   any of McCain, Gingrich, Rice, or Jeb are plausible.

A lot of delegates will be selected outside the primaries, so even if they are required to support a particular candidate on the first ballot they will be free to switch afterwards.  And there would be many delegates who are party officials, etc., and there be a big effort to fix the results ahead of time.

If most of the delegates were totally committed to a candidate, you would really have a problem.  If they had been working for a coupld of years for their candidate, and that's why they were selected as a delegate, they would be less willing to switch to a candidates that they had been working against as they worked for their candidate.