Watch those national polls

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's how I think the electoral vote is going to correlate to the popular vote:




















I base these on my theory that if there is movement one way or another, that movement is going to happen in the midwest, highland south, mississippi valley, southwest, and northwest.  The northeast, west coast, and great plains are dug in, and I don't expect them to budge.

Conclusion: whoever is ahead nationally, even by a small amount, will probably win the EV.  Kerry gets a much bigger EV swing by going ahead nationally, but this is because there are so many marginally Bush states that if Kerry gets up even just a little bit, these states (FL, MO, and OH being the big ones) fall like dominoes to Kerry.

[WalterMitty]

reasonable projections.

but i would argue that if bush wins by 10% he *at least* takes pennsylvania, maybe even nj and delaware.

[Lunar]

I say:
Kerry 5 takes Arizona and Arkansas
Kerry 8 takes Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado

Bush 10 takes Pennsylvania
Bush 8 takes Washington, Michigan, and Pennsylvania
Bush 5 takes Oregon, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

reasonable projections.

but i would argue that if bush wins by 10% he *at least* takes pennsylvania, maybe even nj and delaware.

I could be wrong - I'm not at all confident in this assertion - but I think BosNyWash is not going to budge.  At all.  The Philly area is too strongly Kerry, and there will be no movement towards Bush, regardless of the national numbers.  Bush may pick up in western PA, but I don't think it will be enough to overcome Philly.

Same goes for NJ and DE.

[AuH2O]

I dunno, Pennslyvania's demographics *really* don't make it the Dem stronghold it appears on paper... Unions still help there but their influence is in free-fall; Kerry will take PA in a tight race but not a substantial Bush win.

[© tweed]

I say:
Kerry 5 takes Arizona and Arkansas
Kerry 8 takes Arizona, Virginia, North Carolina, and Colorado

Bush 10 takes Pennsylvania
Bush 8 takes Washington, Michigan, and Pennsylvania
Bush 5 takes Oregon, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania

My thoughts exactly.

[Shira]

Bush by 10%



Kerry by 10%

[Shira]

NJ should be red in the second one

[Lunar]

Why doesn't Bush take Washington, Michigan, or Maine in the 10% one Shira?

Surely he hasn't jumped 5% in all of them since 2000.

[Shira]

When I say NJ I mean NH.
Am I drunk?

[ilikeverin]

WV should, too.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Heck, if Kerry wins the PV by 10%, he'll likely take NC and have a reasonable shot at Nebraska CD 2.  However, if it starts looking like it will be an 8 to 10 point blowout in either direction, expect to see some third party goofyness to creep in as people decide that it is safe to toss away their vote.

[classical liberal]

NE-02 was 56-40 in 2000.  I expect that demograhics have made it a 55-41 baseline.  In a Kerry +10 situation, I expect it to be around Bush 50 - Kerry 46.  Maybe Badnarik could pull a couple extra points from Bush in such a slanted situation, but even the the best the Dems could do would be Bush 48 - Kerry 46.

[12th Doctor]

I disagree VERY much.  If it is Bush by 2%, then he should pick up NM, IA and WI at least.  When he hits 4% he wins with breathing room.

But I don't agree with your basic assumption which is that the states will all vote the way they did in 2000.  I doubt that.