New Survey USA Polls: PA, WA, TN

[lonestar]

And they show good new for Kerry.

Pennsylvania:
Kerry: 53%
Bush: 41%

Last time they did a poll here it was 47/46 Kerry/Bush

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/PA040803pressen.pdf

Washington:
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 43%

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/WA040803pressen.pdf

Tennessee:
Bush: 48%
Kerry: 46%

Last time they did a poll here, it was 51/41 Bush/Kerry

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/TN040803president.pdf

[Lunar]

Survey USA isn't like Zogby or the LA Times, I assume they must be measuring some sort of bounce then.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Washington and Tennessee have not had much polling recently, so its good to finally see some numbers.

I'm surprised Kerry is running virtually even with Patty Murray.

[Reignman]

I always thought we couldn't win Tennessee because Gore was from there and still lost, and because Kerry is from Taxachusetts, but things look pretty OK for Kerry there.

[ATFFL]

Survey USA either released a  rotten poll or their self-identifier caught a bounce in people identifying themselves as Democrats.

From the PA poll:

"6/10  resulted in a sample of likely voters that was 41% GOP 41% DEM.  8/3 poll resulted in a sample that is 34% GOP 43% DEM."

Dems actually have a 5% voter registration advantage, 47-42.  Likely voter samples should be smaller.

The other two look better internally.

Most likely these polls are picking up on a Kerry bounce from the convention.  And. in PA case, the ton of visits he made there in recent days.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

All of these polls are basically consistant with Kerry winning the race nationally by 5-6%.  This is what about half of the national polls are saying, so it is not that unreasonable.

[The Vorlon]

Tennessee sample is good.
Pennsylvania sample is way out
Washington I haven't finished going over yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

"Bush will win Washington in November." - AuH2O

But no one ever said Le Pen fans were high in the intelligence area...

[TheWildCard]

Tennessee sample is good.
Pennsylvania sample is way out
Washington I haven't finished going over yet.

So Vorlon does this mean TN is back as a toss up? Or should we wait for other polls before believeing this?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Kerry's probably not +12 in PA, but he does have a solid lead, it's not looking like much of a swing state any more.

Bush has never led in Washington. Kerry could be leading there by around 8%.
TN: who knows?

[AuH2O]

BRTD: maybe finish HS before talking trash?

[classical liberal]

Weighted to actual party ID (as per PA SoS) the PA poll shows Kerry +6.

[© tweed]

SUSA probably can now be discounted as a reliable pollster.

[ijohn57s]

I find those Tennessee numbers hard to believe.

[© tweed]

I find those Tennessee numbers hard to believe.

Me too.  Bush is probably up 10 in Tennessee.

Washington is the only believeable one, and even that seems to lean a point or two towards Kerry.

[The Vorlon]

Tennessee sample is good.
Pennsylvania sample is way out
Washington I haven't finished going over yet.

So Vorlon does this mean TN is back as a toss up? Or should we wait for other polls before believeing this?

One poll... is... one poll.  We will see.

=>Poll done literally the day after the convention.

=>It's a weekend poll (bad idea)

=>It's a summer poll.

I am not saying SUSA is wrong, they are an ok firm overall.

But hey, it's one poll....

POS is polling PA right now, result out Monday.  I think Garin/Hary/Yang are out in the field too on the Dem side.

We will see

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Tennessee sample is good.
Pennsylvania sample is way out
Washington I haven't finished going over yet.

So Vorlon does this mean TN is back as a toss up? Or should we wait for other polls before believeing this?

One poll... is... one poll.  We will see.

=>Poll done literally the day after the convention.

=>It's a weekend poll (bad idea)

=>It's a summer poll.

I am not saying SUSA is wrong, they are an ok firm overall.

But hey, it's one poll....

POS is polling PA right now, result out Monday.  I think Garin/Hary/Yang are out in the field too on the Dem side.

We will see

Washington and PA are looking good for Kerry.
TN is looking like it needs some more polls.

[TheWildCard]

Tennessee sample is good.
Pennsylvania sample is way out
Washington I haven't finished going over yet.

So Vorlon does this mean TN is back as a toss up? Or should we wait for other polls before believeing this?

One poll... is... one poll.  We will see.

=>Poll done literally the day after the convention.

=>It's a weekend poll (bad idea)

=>It's a summer poll.

I am not saying SUSA is wrong, they are an ok firm overall.

But hey, it's one poll....

POS is polling PA right now, result out Monday.  I think Garin/Hary/Yang are out in the field too on the Dem side.

We will see

Excellent points as always. It'll certainly be interesting to see how things shape up.

[freedomburns]

Weekend polls are suspect only because the Democrats have better social lives and are out having fun on the weekends.  These polls show balanced internals and they all reflect a swing toward Kerry, a Democrat.  No problems there.

The Democratic strategy of playing up Kerry's war record and his strength as a leader in a time of "war" is definitely working.  National polls show a dramatic swing upward for Kerry on who is trusted to fight the so called War on Terror and to be a stron leader.  He is ahead Bush for the first time on some of these polls and that is seriously troubling news for Bush.

All of the recent polls show the beginning of the swing to Kerry that will produce the landslide I have predicted.  Kerry will win 370+ EV on November 2.  

The Administration's attempt to pounce on Kerry's bounce by playing up the threat they see in three-year-old information about Al Qaeda scoping out financial institutions is not working.  The American people are too smart for that, and they are already tired of hearing Bush "cry wolf" at politically opportune moments.  It won't work when they try it in October either.

There is always a lag time between a swing in popular opinion and having it show up in the polls, at least a week.  Kerry will continue to post increasingly good results in the polls up until the RNC because popular opinion is really swinging in his favor.

freedomburns

[AuH2O]

Please be around election day. That's all I ask.

[freedomburns]

Please be around election day. That's all I ask.

OH, I WILL!

And you won't have to like the results.  You will just have to bow down to me and worship at my abilities as a prognosticator with his finger on the pulse of America.

freedomburns

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BRTD: maybe finish HS before talking trash?

I have. You still have yet to explain how and why Bush will win Washington.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

To repeat: there isn't a lot of point polling TN. Let the Civil War re-enacters decide Tennessee as usual...

[AuH2O]

BRTD: maybe finish HS before talking trash?

I have. You still have yet to explain how and why Bush will win Washington.

Well, Captain Communism, Bush is going to win the general election- and by a substantial margin. He lost by 5% there in 2000 in an election where he lost the popular vote, hence, if he gets 52% or so he will probably carry Washington.

If he does, Patty Murray will be unwillingly retired, btw. The Survey USA poll shows she is tied to Kerry... heck, a good Nethercutt campaign from here on out and she might do worse than Kerry, though that would be kind of unprecedented.

note to BRTD: uhh, I mean, you're saying I'm out of the mainstream? My man, you're openly Communist. A lot more Americans would vote Le Pen than Fidel...