The Ohio polls, can anyone explain

[Floridude]

Can anyone who is a wiser man than I figure out how to interpret the Ohio polls.  The various polls I have in the past month are

ARG-Kerry 45 Bush 47.  However, the race has gotten closer each poll

Rasmussen-Bush 48 Kerry 44 Before Edwards pick

Strategic Vision- Bush 48 Kerry 43

Gallup Kerry 48 Bush 43

Columbus Post-Dispatch Bush 47 Kerry 44

Can anyone tell me what to make out of it.  All I can see is that Ohio is close right now.  What was the specifics of the post dispatch poll?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

You have the ARG numbers reversed.

You really can't tell anything from these polls other than that the race is tied.  All the polls are within the margin of error for a tied race.  I don't know if there is anything more insightful you can draw from them.

[Reds4]

The Dispatch poll was a little over 3,000 registered voters. Being form Ohio I can tell you the Dispatch generally does a good job with polling. Very close here, my best guess is Bush up 1.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

well, the economy there still sucks, they lost more jobs.  I'd say Kerry is up 3-4% right now.  

[ATFFL]

ARG has recently begun intentionally slanting towards Kerry.

Most likely Gallup released an outlier.   Being mroe to Kerry than ARG is a good sign of a bad poll.

The Columbus dispatch is a local poll that knows the area very well and uses huge sample sizes.  I would not trust them to poll outside Ohio, but they know their home state and try and do a good job.

Strategic vision has a great reputation among its clients, all of whom are Republicans seeking office.  While you might think they would slant pro-Bush, they are a campaign pollster, and thus must be good since campaigns need accurate data.  They are making a play for national attention.  We will see how they do without the big bucks campaigns will pay for accurate polling data.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I wouldn't go so far as to say ARG is 'intentionally' slanting their polls to favor Kerry, but their metholdogy is certainly defective in a way that favors Kerry.

I'm a little reluctant to read intentional slanting of polls where there are reasonable non-intentional explanations.

Now, CBS, LA Times and Princeton Research, they DO go far out of bounds in their polls so as to favor Kerry.

[Floridude]

Sorry about the ARG mistake.  That was an error in typing rather than thought.  I just got confused because I was putting the leader first.  

This whole ananysis of all the polls in different states is interesting, but how much do we really know.

It badgers me to know that I follow politics and government more than the average american, yet I cannot vote.  Oh well, In 08' Ill be able to vote.

[Blue Rectangle]

It badgers me to know that I follow politics and government more than the average american, yet I cannot vote.  Oh well, In 08' Ill be able to vote.

I know how you feel, I turned 18 one week after the 1992 election.

[MHS2002]

It's the summer, I wouldn't worry about the polls too much. After both conventions, things should shake themselves out.

[Floridude]

I agree. Much of the fun of polls is just analyzing the data.  The fact is that states could swing either way, and swing back again before the election.  I think we all need not to take the polls to seriously, unless a trend starts showing up, which clearly is lacking in the Ohio polls.