Romney, Iowa, and New Hampshire

[© tweed]

even if Mitt wins Iowa and New Hampshire going away, does that really wrap up the nomination for him, like many are suggesting?  early GOP primary schedule is as follows

    * Monday, January 14, 2008 - Iowa (41)
    * Saturday, January 19, 2008 - Nevada (34)
    * Tuesday, January 22, 2008 - New Hampshire[1] (24), Wyoming (12 of 28)[2]
    * Tuesday, January 29, 2008 - Florida[3] (114)
    * Saturday, February 2, 2008 - South Carolina[4] (47)
    * Friday, February 1 - Sunday, February 3, 2008 - Maine (21)[5]


what will happen in Nevada is unclear because no polling is really being done there (and it doesn't look like the media will give a sh**t either).  but Rudy is probably the favorite in FL and Maine, and Romney has no chance in SC.

then on Super Tuesday / National Primary / Armageddon

Tuesday, February 5, 2008 - Alabama (48), Alaska (29), Arizona (53), Arkansas (34), California (173), Colorado (46), Connecticut (30), Delaware (18), Georgia (72), Illinois (70), Michigan (61), Minnesota (41), Missouri (58), New Jersey (52), New York (101), North Dakota (26), Oklahoma (42), Tennessee (55), Utah (36), West Virginia (18 of 30)[6]

Giuliani probably takes the high delegate coastal states and Thompson sweeps the south. 

it likely doesn't go down like that, but unless Mitt can start expanding his appeal he won't win the nomination even if he kicks ass in IA and NH.  I know his strategy is to win those and hope the resultant wave carries him, but with everything so compressed this year it's just not that simple.

and also, from New Years' - Feb 5 will be an insane month+ here on Atlas.  hopefully one or both primaries are still contested after Feb 5 (and if they are it may well go to the convention - mad fun.  I'm more entertained by the prospect of the election than with anyone involved in it.  but anyway, proceed)

[Keystone Phil]

I think people are banking on the domino strategy (Kerry 2004).

[SPC]

This is going to be an interesting election. On the Democratic side, you'll have Clinton and Obama fighting it out until late spring, then on the Republican side, you'll have Giuliani and Romney fighting it out until mid-summer. That's almost 6 months of primary coverage.

[Mr. Morden]

I think people are banking on the domino strategy (Kerry 2004).

Yes, exactly.  Dean was leading in virtually every state until Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire, but then all those polls turned around overnight.  So while Romney may not be doing that great in CA or FL right now, he could easily catch up in those places if he does well enough in the earlier states.

OTOH, part of getting a boost out of the early states is defying expectations.  If Romney is already expected to win IA and NH, then it won't shake up the race as much when he does.  He'd be better off flying below the radar in both states, and then surging in the final weeks.  Of course, calibrating that just right is a lot easier said than done.

[© tweed]

of course, he may play well in Nevada due in part to its high Mormon population, and if he wins the first three, that may carry him.  it also may well not.  I still can't see him doing sh**t in the south or NY and NJ.

[Nym90]

I think people are banking on the domino strategy (Kerry 2004).

Indeed.

No candidate in either party has ever won both Iowa and New Hampshire and not gone on to win the nomination.

[© tweed]

it also has never been as frontloaded as it is now.  as recently as 2000, five weeks were between Iowa/NH and Super Tuesday.  now it's around three with a bunch of primaries in between.

[Nym90]

it also has never been as frontloaded as it is now.  as recently as 2000, five weeks were between Iowa/NH and Super Tuesday.  now it's around three with a bunch of primaries in between.

Very true.

Though of course that could cut both ways; it could actually make the momentum harder to stop, since there wouldn't be as much time to allow the media buzz to die down between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday.

[Mr. Morden]

it also has never been as frontloaded as it is now.  as recently as 2000, five weeks were between Iowa/NH and Super Tuesday.  now it's around three with a bunch of primaries in between.

Very true.

Though of course that could cut both ways; it could actually make the momentum harder to stop, since there wouldn't be as much time to allow the media buzz to die down between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday.

Yes, I agree with that.  The Feb. 5th battlefield is so large that free media coverage is going to be more important than ever.  And there's no more positive free media coverage than you can get than what accompanies victories in those early states.  Though as I said, it's better if your victory in the early states is a surprise, so Romney had better hope the expectations don't get too out of control.

[Likely Voter]

because the media like simple stories, I think after NH they will want to make each nomination into two way races...maybe three. They especially like david v goliath spin as well.

On the Dem side the story will be 'Hillary is clear front runner with Obama as challenger and Edwards fading'
On the GOP side they will have a harder time defining a front runner after NH, but they will pick one and it will probably be Romney (IMHO).  McCain will certainly be declared dead by then and I think it will be 'Guiliani v Romney' with Thompson being called a flash in the pan and McCain as yesterday's news

[© tweed]

Though of course that could cut both ways; it could actually make the momentum harder to stop, since there wouldn't be as much time to allow the media buzz to die down between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday.

I disagree

think about the extremes - would a candidate gain more momentum if Super Tuesday were held one day after a major early primary, or would he gain more after a month?

[Mr. Morden]

Though of course that could cut both ways; it could actually make the momentum harder to stop, since there wouldn't be as much time to allow the media buzz to die down between New Hampshire and Super Tuesday.

I disagree

think about the extremes - would a candidate gain more momentum if Super Tuesday were held one day after a major early primary, or would he gain more after a month?

I'd say one day.  A month gives the other candidates too much time to catch up.