Is Georgia competetive?

[VBM]

Trump is up by over 6, pre-debate, in the GA polling average. Georgia state polls were extremely accurate in 2020, 2021, and 2022. So there's no good reason to believe, if the election were held today, that Biden would have a realistic chance at winning the state.

[Green Line]

Yes.  Too many blacks and suburban women.

[axiomsofdominion]

Trump is up by over 6, pre-debate, in the GA polling average. Georgia state polls were extremely accurate in 2020, 2021, and 2022. So there's no good reason to believe, if the election were held today, that Biden would have a realistic chance at winning the state.

Georgia is competitive. If the election were held today intentionally the numbers wouldn't be so good for Trump. Sure if you had a pop/shock/unscheduled election today somehow Trump would probably do well. That's a different statement. We'll see how it goes in September.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No, and even with a non Biden nominee Trump is still favored.

[iceman]

only probably Harris would make it competitive. anyone else loses.

[TheReckoning]

Yes.  Too many blacks and suburban women.

What do you mean by “too many” blacks?

[Green Line]

Yes.  Too many blacks and suburban women.

What do you mean by “too many” blacks?

Like I said this weekend, you need to stop asking the worst questions.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Absolutely.

Metro Atlanta which is nearly half the state has trended left in every Pres election for quite a while now and even Warnock 2022 got some pretty favorable swings from Biden 2020. I actually think people overestimate how easy it will be for Trump to win GA giving metro Atlanta’s growth - people have done analysis on Redistricter where just shifting Cobb and Gwinnett  another 5% left becomes really hard to offset from the rest of the state. And remember, a huge part of Dems recent gains in metro Atlanta have been because of demographics change and growth - even if Biden loses a bit of ground on persuasion metro Atlanta could still shift left from growth.

Another thing to consider is Trump’s current polling lead is dependent on some pretty unrealistic numbers with black voters, and outside Trump actually getting like 25% of the black vote, I struggle to see how he achieves - 5%+ win; the suburbs aren’t going back to 2016 (probably get bluer from 2020 on net) and there’s only so much more he can gain in rural white areas. Sure Kemp and Raffensburger were able to achieve this in 2022 but it was by appealing to a certain number of anti-Trump voters who by definition aren’t going to be gettable for Trump.

My current prediction is Trump + 1; the state is very competitive imo. I’ll happily bet real money with any user here Trump does not win the state by 5%+

[Obama24]

Competitive in the sense that Trump will likely win it, yes. Competitive for Biden, no.

[VBM]

Absolutely.

Metro Atlanta which is nearly half the state has trended left in every Pres election for quite a while now and even Warnock 2022 got some pretty favorable swings from Biden 2020. I actually think people overestimate how easy it will be for Trump to win GA giving metro Atlanta’s growth - people have done analysis on Redistricter where just shifting Cobb and Gwinnett  another 5% left becomes really hard to offset from the rest of the state. And remember, a huge part of Dems recent gains in metro Atlanta have been because of demographics change and growth - even if Biden loses a bit of ground on persuasion metro Atlanta could still shift left from growth.

Another thing to consider is Trump’s current polling lead is dependent on some pretty unrealistic numbers with black voters, and outside Trump actually getting like 25% of the black vote, I struggle to see how he achieves - 5%+ win; the suburbs aren’t going back to 2016 (probably get bluer from 2020 on net) and there’s only so much more he can gain in rural white areas. Sure Kemp and Raffensburger were able to achieve this in 2022 but it was by appealing to a certain number of anti-Trump voters who by definition aren’t going to be gettable for Trump.

My current prediction is Trump + 1; the state is very competitive imo. I’ll happily bet real money with any user here Trump does not win the state by 5%+

Is there any reason to believe that black voters haven’t genuinely shifted towards Trump (or rather, away from Biden)? As I said, GA polls have been remarkably accurate for the last few elections, including the last Biden vs Trump election. I don’t see why they’d now start sh**tting the bed all of a sudden

[axiomsofdominion]

Absolutely.

Metro Atlanta which is nearly half the state has trended left in every Pres election for quite a while now and even Warnock 2022 got some pretty favorable swings from Biden 2020. I actually think people overestimate how easy it will be for Trump to win GA giving metro Atlanta’s growth - people have done analysis on Redistricter where just shifting Cobb and Gwinnett  another 5% left becomes really hard to offset from the rest of the state. And remember, a huge part of Dems recent gains in metro Atlanta have been because of demographics change and growth - even if Biden loses a bit of ground on persuasion metro Atlanta could still shift left from growth.

Another thing to consider is Trump’s current polling lead is dependent on some pretty unrealistic numbers with black voters, and outside Trump actually getting like 25% of the black vote, I struggle to see how he achieves - 5%+ win; the suburbs aren’t going back to 2016 (probably get bluer from 2020 on net) and there’s only so much more he can gain in rural white areas. Sure Kemp and Raffensburger were able to achieve this in 2022 but it was by appealing to a certain number of anti-Trump voters who by definition aren’t going to be gettable for Trump.

My current prediction is Trump + 1; the state is very competitive imo. I’ll happily bet real money with any user here Trump does not win the state by 5%+

Is there any reason to believe that black voters haven’t genuinely shifted towards Trump (or rather, away from Biden)? As I said, GA polls have been remarkably accurate for the last few elections, including the last Biden vs Trump election. I don’t see why they’d now start sh**tting the bed all of a sudden

Have the polls been right in June or in October? That is totally different.

[GAinDC]

of course it is! Both campaigns are making a play for it.

[Liberalrocks]

only probably Harris would make it competitive. anyone else loses.

[holtridge]

No. I can't see it supporting Biden the way it did in 2020. Too many undecided voters will stay at home.

[VBM]

Absolutely.

Metro Atlanta which is nearly half the state has trended left in every Pres election for quite a while now and even Warnock 2022 got some pretty favorable swings from Biden 2020. I actually think people overestimate how easy it will be for Trump to win GA giving metro Atlanta’s growth - people have done analysis on Redistricter where just shifting Cobb and Gwinnett  another 5% left becomes really hard to offset from the rest of the state. And remember, a huge part of Dems recent gains in metro Atlanta have been because of demographics change and growth - even if Biden loses a bit of ground on persuasion metro Atlanta could still shift left from growth.

Another thing to consider is Trump’s current polling lead is dependent on some pretty unrealistic numbers with black voters, and outside Trump actually getting like 25% of the black vote, I struggle to see how he achieves - 5%+ win; the suburbs aren’t going back to 2016 (probably get bluer from 2020 on net) and there’s only so much more he can gain in rural white areas. Sure Kemp and Raffensburger were able to achieve this in 2022 but it was by appealing to a certain number of anti-Trump voters who by definition aren’t going to be gettable for Trump.

My current prediction is Trump + 1; the state is very competitive imo. I’ll happily bet real money with any user here Trump does not win the state by 5%+

Is there any reason to believe that black voters haven’t genuinely shifted towards Trump (or rather, away from Biden)? As I said, GA polls have been remarkably accurate for the last few elections, including the last Biden vs Trump election. I don’t see why they’d now start sh**tting the bed all of a sudden

Have the polls been right in June or in October? That is totally different.

There is no good reason to believe the polls will suddenly shift towards Biden

[All Along The Watchtower]

Yes.  Too many blacks and suburban women.

What do you mean by “too many” blacks?

Like I said this weekend, you need to stop asking the worst questions.

Yes, we all know exactly what you meant and how you feel.

No need to ask.

[morgankingsley]

Yes in that it will go to the eventual winner of the election

[ProgressiveModerate]

Absolutely.

Metro Atlanta which is nearly half the state has trended left in every Pres election for quite a while now and even Warnock 2022 got some pretty favorable swings from Biden 2020. I actually think people overestimate how easy it will be for Trump to win GA giving metro Atlanta’s growth - people have done analysis on Redistricter where just shifting Cobb and Gwinnett  another 5% left becomes really hard to offset from the rest of the state. And remember, a huge part of Dems recent gains in metro Atlanta have been because of demographics change and growth - even if Biden loses a bit of ground on persuasion metro Atlanta could still shift left from growth.

Another thing to consider is Trump’s current polling lead is dependent on some pretty unrealistic numbers with black voters, and outside Trump actually getting like 25% of the black vote, I struggle to see how he achieves - 5%+ win; the suburbs aren’t going back to 2016 (probably get bluer from 2020 on net) and there’s only so much more he can gain in rural white areas. Sure Kemp and Raffensburger were able to achieve this in 2022 but it was by appealing to a certain number of anti-Trump voters who by definition aren’t going to be gettable for Trump.

My current prediction is Trump + 1; the state is very competitive imo. I’ll happily bet real money with any user here Trump does not win the state by 5%+

Is there any reason to believe that black voters haven’t genuinely shifted towards Trump (or rather, away from Biden)? As I said, GA polls have been remarkably accurate for the last few elections, including the last Biden vs Trump election. I don’t see why they’d now start sh**tting the bed all of a sudden

I feel like the burden should be on you as to why you think polls will be right this time and there is a genuine shift of black voters towards Trump. Polls overestimating Republican/underestimating Dem support of black voters has been a known issue for quite a few cycles now - in 2022 many polls suggested these election deniers who ultimatley lost big time would get like 20% of the black vote.

Also literally no election since 2020 has suggested GOP made any meaningful gains with black voters. Even in elections where Democrats underperformed statewide (NY-Gov 2022, FL-Gov 2022), black voters barely budged. Low black turnout was a much bigger problem for Dems in 2022 than any sort of vote flipping. Literally the only election since 2020 I can think of where the GOP made any meaningful gains with black voters were some of the statewide 2023 LA elections, but that was likely a factor of the state's unique electoral system incentivizing some black voters to vote for the "less bad" Republican over the Democrat who had no chance of winning. Also in primaries, black communities continue to be some of Biden's strongest areas, and Trump barely gets any votes out of these heavily black precincts.

And yes, midterms aren't always reflective of the coming Presidential election, but they tend to foreshadow re-alignments. For instance, in 2018, Dems notably underperformed with Cubans in Florida and with Hispanics along the border; these ended up being the 2 most notorious collapses of Dem support in the 2020 cycle. In this case, Trump getting 20% of the black vote relies on a bunch of people who have never voted or voted straight ticket (including in 2020) suddenly flipping to Trump all at once, and Trump increasing his raw vote totals in black communities by a factor of x3-x6 after decades of relatively consistent voting patterns from the black community. If Trump did receive 20% of the black vote in 2024, it would mean 75-95% of black voters who vote for him didn't show up to vote for a Republican in 2022 which is a really tall ask.

You tell me why you have reason to believe the polls will actually be right this time and there will be a meaningful shift of black voters towards Trump.

[VBM]

Absolutely.

Metro Atlanta which is nearly half the state has trended left in every Pres election for quite a while now and even Warnock 2022 got some pretty favorable swings from Biden 2020. I actually think people overestimate how easy it will be for Trump to win GA giving metro Atlanta’s growth - people have done analysis on Redistricter where just shifting Cobb and Gwinnett  another 5% left becomes really hard to offset from the rest of the state. And remember, a huge part of Dems recent gains in metro Atlanta have been because of demographics change and growth - even if Biden loses a bit of ground on persuasion metro Atlanta could still shift left from growth.

Another thing to consider is Trump’s current polling lead is dependent on some pretty unrealistic numbers with black voters, and outside Trump actually getting like 25% of the black vote, I struggle to see how he achieves - 5%+ win; the suburbs aren’t going back to 2016 (probably get bluer from 2020 on net) and there’s only so much more he can gain in rural white areas. Sure Kemp and Raffensburger were able to achieve this in 2022 but it was by appealing to a certain number of anti-Trump voters who by definition aren’t going to be gettable for Trump.

My current prediction is Trump + 1; the state is very competitive imo. I’ll happily bet real money with any user here Trump does not win the state by 5%+

Is there any reason to believe that black voters haven’t genuinely shifted towards Trump (or rather, away from Biden)? As I said, GA polls have been remarkably accurate for the last few elections, including the last Biden vs Trump election. I don’t see why they’d now start sh**tting the bed all of a sudden

I feel like the burden should be on you as to why you think polls will be right this time and there is a genuine shift of black voters towards Trump. Polls overestimating Republican/underestimating Dem support of black voters has been a known issue for quite a few cycles now - in 2022 many polls suggested these election deniers who ultimatley lost big time would get like 20% of the black vote.

Also literally no election since 2020 has suggested GOP made any meaningful gains with black voters. Even in elections where Democrats underperformed statewide (NY-Gov 2022, FL-Gov 2022), black voters barely budged. Low black turnout was a much bigger problem for Dems in 2022 than any sort of vote flipping. Literally the only election since 2020 I can think of where the GOP made any meaningful gains with black voters were some of the statewide 2023 LA elections, but that was likely a factor of the state's unique electoral system incentivizing some black voters to vote for the "less bad" Republican over the Democrat who had no chance of winning. Also in primaries, black communities continue to be some of Biden's strongest areas, and Trump barely gets any votes out of these heavily black precincts.

And yes, midterms aren't always reflective of the coming Presidential election, but they tend to foreshadow re-alignments. For instance, in 2018, Dems notably underperformed with Cubans in Florida and with Hispanics along the border; these ended up being the 2 most notorious collapses of Dem support in the 2020 cycle. In this case, Trump getting 20% of the black vote relies on a bunch of people who have never voted or voted straight ticket (including in 2020) suddenly flipping to Trump all at once, and Trump increasing his raw vote totals in black communities by a factor of x3-x6 after decades of relatively consistent voting patterns from the black community. If Trump did receive 20% of the black vote in 2024, it would mean 75-95% of black voters who vote for him didn't show up to vote for a Republican in 2022 which is a really tall ask.

You tell me why you have reason to believe the polls will actually be right this time and there will be a meaningful shift of black voters towards Trump.

Like I said, GA state specific polls have been remarkably accurate in the last 3 election cycles. Even if polls overestimate Republican support from black voters nationwide, it’s possible that they’re accurate when it comes to Republican support from blacks specifically in the state of Georgia. Or their overestimation of Republican support from blacks is balanced out in Georgia by them underestimating Republican support from other demographic groups.

Going into the 2020 election, the polling average in GA was Biden +1.2%, and Biden won the state by almost exactly 1%. It’s the same story for the latest 3 Senate races in the state too.

[Comrade Funk]

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not anymore.