I am going to take a different stance and pick Rudy in 2000. As a very popular Mayor of NYC, he would have held his own in the city, and would have dominated upstate, giving him enough to pull out a victory over Hillary, 50.5% to 49.5%.
Hey, at one time, it was within the realm of possibility.
Except he wasn't popular in NYC then.
In 2006, as the incumbent, he would win easily.
Just like Santorum, Allen, DeWine, Talent, Burns and Chaffee?
No Republican could've won a statewide election in NY in 2006. Period.