In which state are you most bullish on Biden's performance relative to perception?

[Radicalneo]

Imagine you are placing bets on the outcome in various states. For instance, while conventional wisdom might suggest Biden has a slight edge in a state, you believe he will win by a significantly wider margin..

[iceman]

I opted for Arizona. Biden’s support will erode in the rest of the states mentioned.

[Liberalrocks]

Nevada

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I think Biden is still slightly favored in Nevada. The state has a consistent R polling bias, and Trump has never won it unlike the other 5 swing states. The Culinary Union is a powerful force in Clark County, and the GOP is slowly losing ground in Washoe. It almost feels like reverse North Carolina, promising for the Republicans but fails to deliver every time.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Biden will still hold on all three rust belt battlegrounds despite conventional wisdom being that Trump will get at least one.

[America needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I think Biden has a good chance to win Georgia, and could even win it in a bad night, whereas many people seem to think its his hardest hold.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Maine. Its more likely to vote like it did in 2012 than it is to be really close. Just lol at people who think Nevada will vote D. Jon Ralston of all people is throwing cold water on that

[Progressive Pessimist]

Maine, Minnesota, and Virginia.

These states remain certainties for Biden, though they may swing right...as most states could.

[SnowLabrador]

Arizona. Democrats managed to win most of the statewide races there in 2022 despite unfavorable turnout.

[Agonized-Statism]

He'll keep Nevada and Arizona particularly closer than expected: influx of Californians (most of those being suburbanites and tech workers hit by the tech recession, but likely to be "vote blue no matter who" types), localized semiconductor manufacturing boom, tourism and small business not adversely impacted by a lockdown this time, collapse of the Arizona Republicans and Gallego's reverse coattails, decline of the Nevada Republicans and end of the Nevada Democrats' intra-party conflict, abortion on the ballot riling up libertarian westerners. The cost of living crisis and national Democrats' coalitional fragmentation will still cinch them for Trump, but I expect the patterns of the Sun Belt versus Rust Belt realignment to hold up.

[Radicalneo]

It’s North Carolina for me. Biden isn’t going to lose North Carolina by five or six points as the polls are suggesting.

[wnwnwn]

Virginia

It will vote... D with a margin over 6%