How would each Canadian province & territory vote under a two-party system?

[mjba257]

Anyone who knows about Canadian politics knows there are multiple parties in Canada: Conservative/Tories (center-right), Liberal (center-left), NDP (progressive left), BQ (Quebec secessionist, mostly left-of-center); People's Party (populist right); and the Greens (far left).

Of course, Canada is a parliamentary system, so it's setup is very different, but let's say they used an American-style system. You'd have the two main parties, Tories and Liberals. Tories being everything right of center and Liberals being everything left of center. Just like the US, you'd have third parties, but they only enjoy marginal support.

How would each province & territory vote in this system?

[Hatman 🍁]

AB and SK would be safe Conservative, Quebec would be safe for the anti-Conservative party (providing it was sufficiently pro-Quebec enough). All the other provinces would be swing provinces. Even the territories (maybe not NWT).

[mjba257]

AB and SK would be safe Conservative, Quebec would be safe for the anti-Conservative party (providing it was sufficiently pro-Quebec enough). All the other provinces would be swing provinces. Even the territories (maybe not NWT).

Agree about AB and SK. I'm guessing Winnipeg is the reason Manitoba isn't safe Conservative? Now, why aren't BC and ON safe Liberal? You'd think Toronto and Vancouver would make their respective provinces solidly liberal. Also, I thought the Maritime's were Liberal strongholds?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

AB and SK would be safe Conservative, Quebec would be safe for the anti-Conservative party (providing it was sufficiently pro-Quebec enough). All the other provinces would be swing provinces. Even the territories (maybe not NWT).

Agree about AB and SK. I'm guessing Winnipeg is the reason Manitoba isn't safe Conservative? Now, why aren't BC and ON safe Liberal? You'd think Toronto and Vancouver would make their respective provinces solidly liberal. Also, I thought the Maritime's were Liberal strongholds?

You're correct about Manitoba, it basically comes down to Winnipeg.

As for Ontario and BC, you have to remember that the suburban belt around Toronto and Vancouver are much more populous than the cities themselves. Of course the core of these metropolitan areas vote heavily for the left, but the suburbs can be quite accessible to the right. Hell, even suburban parts within city limits can vote right. And when I say conservative suburbs, I'm not talking about sundown towns for racist suburbanites to run away from black people, I'm talking about seats like Etobicoke North, which is roughly 80% nonwhite, 54% immigrant, one of the lowest income ridings in Toronto...and yet the riding represented by Ontario's Conservative premier. In the states, Republicans would be lucky to get 15% in a seat like that.

The Maritimes were a Liberal stronghold, yes. But when easterners don't like a prime minister, they swing HARD. And right now, Liberals are seeing some pretty dismal numbers there, including a provincial byelection where the Tories basically pulled off Kim Jong-un margins. It wouldn't be a Liberal stronghold necessarily, but probably lean that way with all other things being equal.

[Hatman 🍁]

AB and SK would be safe Conservative, Quebec would be safe for the anti-Conservative party (providing it was sufficiently pro-Quebec enough). All the other provinces would be swing provinces. Even the territories (maybe not NWT).

Agree about AB and SK. I'm guessing Winnipeg is the reason Manitoba isn't safe Conservative? Now, why aren't BC and ON safe Liberal? You'd think Toronto and Vancouver would make their respective provinces solidly liberal. Also, I thought the Maritime's were Liberal strongholds?

You're correct about Manitoba, it basically comes down to Winnipeg.

As for Ontario and BC, you have to remember that the suburban belt around Toronto and Vancouver are much more populous than the cities themselves. Of course the core of these metropolitan areas vote heavily for the left, but the suburbs can be quite accessible to the right. Hell, even suburban parts within city limits can vote right. And when I say conservative suburbs, I'm not talking about sundown towns for racist suburbanites to run away from black people, I'm talking about seats like Etobicoke North, which is roughly 80% nonwhite, 54% immigrant, one of the lowest income ridings in Toronto...and yet the riding represented by Ontario's Conservative premier. In the states, Republicans would be lucky to get 15% in a seat like that.

The Maritimes were a Liberal stronghold, yes. But when easterners don't like a prime minister, they swing HARD. And right now, Liberals are seeing some pretty dismal numbers there, including a provincial byelection where the Tories basically pulled off Kim Jong-un margins. It wouldn't be a Liberal stronghold necessarily, but probably lean that way with all other things being equal.

Etobicoke North wouldn't vote Conservative in a federal election, unless there was a Ford on the ballot.

AB and SK would be safe Conservative, Quebec would be safe for the anti-Conservative party (providing it was sufficiently pro-Quebec enough). All the other provinces would be swing provinces. Even the territories (maybe not NWT).

Agree about AB and SK. I'm guessing Winnipeg is the reason Manitoba isn't safe Conservative? Now, why aren't BC and ON safe Liberal? You'd think Toronto and Vancouver would make their respective provinces solidly liberal. Also, I thought the Maritime's were Liberal strongholds?

If you're calling the anti-Conservative party "Liberals", then that there is half the barrier. If you're looking for an all encompassing left of centre party, you're going to need a different name.

[King of Kensington]

If you're calling the anti-Conservative party "Liberals", then that there is half the barrier. If you're looking for an all encompassing left of centre party, you're going to need a different name.

There's always "Democrats."

[CumbrianLefty]

How about "Liberal Democrats"?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Etobicoke North wouldn't vote Conservative in a federal election, unless there was a Ford on the ballot.

Etobicoke North is an extreme example, but I think it's still fair to say that GTA suburbs, including particularly diverse ones, are not quite as solidly Liberal as comparable places in the US would be. York Region is another example, even parts of Mississauga, North York, etc.

[Hatman 🍁]

Etobicoke North wouldn't vote Conservative in a federal election, unless there was a Ford on the ballot.

Etobicoke North is an extreme example, but I think it's still fair to say that GTA suburbs, including particularly diverse ones, are not quite as solidly Liberal as comparable places in the US would be. York Region is another example, even parts of Mississauga, North York, etc.

Oh for sure, but there's still a class element, which is why Etobicoke North would be out of reach.