Updated ratings from Split Ticket

[Rubensim]

No it's not Biden had a 45% Approval rating in 22, and to try to say that is wrong you Rs lost and about to lose again.

We just haven't voted yet, and think we can't win blue states again in a Prez Eday is preposterous funny

Look i'm going to admit things are not looking good for your Dem president with these protests Inflations and well the israel-situation i just feel well things are looking up for Trump especially with the fact that trump might have a few coming cards up his sleeve to use against Joe.

[iceman]

No it's not Biden had a 45% Approval rating in 22, and to try to say that is wrong you Rs lost and about to lose again.

We just haven't voted yet, and think we can't win blue states again in a Prez Eday is preposterous funny

Look i'm going to admit things are not looking good for your Dem president with these protests Inflations and well the israel-situation i just feel well things are looking up for Trump especially with the fact that trump might have a few coming cards up his sleeve to use against Joe.

it’s pointless arguing with a hack 😄

ignore button is your friend.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not Biden had a 45% Approval rating in 22, and to try to say that is wrong you Rs lost and about to lose again.

We just haven't voted yet, and think we can't win blue states again in a Prez Eday is preposterous funny

Look i'm going to admit things are not looking good for your Dem president with these protests Inflations and well the israel-situation i just feel well things are looking up for Trump especially with the fact that trump might have a few coming cards up his sleeve to use against Joe.

it’s pointless arguing with a hack 😄

ignore button is your friend.

Lol I have been in here since 2006 and no one has ever called me a haxk

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not Biden had a 45% Approval rating in 22, and to try to say that is wrong you Rs lost and about to lose again.

We just haven't voted yet, and think we can't win blue states again in a Prez Eday is preposterous funny

Look i'm going to admit things are not looking good for your Dem president with these protests Inflations and well the israel-situation i just feel well things are looking up for Trump especially with the fact that trump might have a few coming cards up his sleeve to use against Joe.

Marist +3 Biden

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good, Biden deserves nothing.

Lol were you here in 22 when the Trafalgar polls were wrong on a red wave, yes you were but you are ignoring it, it's in the database the Trafalgar polls that were wrong

There are always surprise states that's why I hope Biden picks up NC/TX AZ and GA were supposed to be Lean R in 20 but Biden won then

There a major difference between midterms and presidential election though
Plus everyone could see from a bit of a mile away by July/august that 2022 wasn't going to be a Redwave with roe v wade being overturned and trump endorsing republicans in states were they hated him
Look the polls for months have been saying trump leading and the gap between biden and trump seem to be growing bigger and bigger for donnie so i'm just going to say that this election isn't looking good for joe.

This is not true.  Check the aggregators.  All show a close race, and in the last couple months Biden has improved slightly overall.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know Eastwood seems to be throwing out lugs to Ds whom supports Biden but Biden has a 45/55 percent Approvals

We all know Trump isn't gonna win a Landslide, but Ds have managed more Landslides the last R landslide was 1988

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Good, Biden deserves nothing.

Lol were you here in 22 when the Trafalgar polls were wrong on a red wave, yes you were but you are ignoring it, it's in the database the Trafalgar polls that were wrong

There are always surprise states that's why I hope Biden picks up NC/TX AZ and GA were supposed to be Lean R in 20 but Biden won then

There a major difference between midterms and presidential election though
Plus everyone could see from a bit of a mile away by July/august that 2022 wasn't going to be a Redwave with roe v wade being overturned and trump endorsing republicans in states were they hated him
Look the polls for months have been saying trump leading and the gap between biden and trump seem to be growing bigger and bigger for donnie so i'm just going to say that this election isn't looking good for joe.

Really? I was pretty active on the forum around that time, and that was certainly not the vibe. Almost every blue av and most reds here were still predicting a wipeout for the Democrats up until the results started reporting on Election Day. The media and pundit class were still very much beating the red wave war drums at that time, as well.

[President Johnson]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

I would argue that other than messy polls, barely any fundamentals back up that Trump is indeed winning. Presidents usually get reelected unless they completely screwed up and/or presided over an economic recession. The polls overall show a close race most of the time, but are overall inconsistent and were off in both directions over the last few cycles. Even the higher quality polls usually don't mean so much as they're snapshots in time and can change either way.

Overall you still might consider Pennsylvania as a tossup (and tilt means Trump would at least have a 40-49% chance to win). Then I would move both this one and North Carolina as tossup.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

I would argue that other than messy polls, barely any fundamentals back up that Trump is indeed winning. Presidents usually get reelected unless they completely screwed up and/or presided over an economic recession. The polls overall show a close race most of the time, but are overall inconsistent and were off in both directions over the last few cycles. Even the higher quality polls usually don't mean so much as they're snapshots in time and can change either way.

Overall you still might consider Pennsylvania as a tossup (and tilt means Trump would at least have a 40-49% chance to win). Then I would move both this one and North Carolina as tossup.

A consumer sentiment of 67.4 is generally losing.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

My ratings as of today would be this:

Mine are this

No data backs it up either.

Imagine thinking kansas is likely R in this environment...

Michigan is no lean D state (and neither is PA, President Johnson). Again no data backs that up, just are ratings based on wishy-washy thinking or personal gut feelings and ignoring that Biden is in trouble.

Might very well change in 6 months from now but if you really believe that, than don't make a map at all...

To observe an election, one has to be neutral and detached in order to have the best chance of accurately predicting the election. It's why i did well in 2018 - predicting all winning senators correctly - and correctly predicted the 2016 and 2020 winners despite not being an American. In fact, not being an American arguably helped, since i'm not as invested in this race as some of users are here...

It's my number 1 rule if one does online betting. Never bet on something you are invested in, because that clouds your judgment.

I would argue that other than messy polls, barely any fundamentals back up that Trump is indeed winning. Presidents usually get reelected unless they completely screwed up and/or presided over an economic recession. The polls overall show a close race most of the time, but are overall inconsistent and were off in both directions over the last few cycles. Even the higher quality polls usually don't mean so much as they're snapshots in time and can change either way.

Overall you still might consider Pennsylvania as a tossup (and tilt means Trump would at least have a 40-49% chance to win). Then I would move both this one and North Carolina as tossup.

I'm very sorry but the fundamentals actually do favour Trump. The only reason why it isn't a foregone conclusion yet...

is because he's running against Trump, someone almost as unpopular as he is.

In every other cycle he was DOA, simply because of his age, disapproval ratings, lack of progressive/grassroots support and the not so great economy - even if you are in denial about an economic recession, most Americans would simply disagree with that.

For presidential races, the polls actually underestimated Trump. Like, you are betting/hoping on an underestimation of Biden, which isn't really grounded in objective reasoning, but more in wishful thinking.

The only thing i agree with you on is that time is on Biden's side and that a lot can change in six months. But as of now, things don't look great for Biden.