NBC - Trump +2, Biden +2 with RFK

[MR DARK BRANDON]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-candidacy-hurts-trump-biden-nbc-news-poll-finds-rcna148536

Posting the RFK numbers cause this is genuinely interesting

Trump - 46
Biden - 44

Biden - 39
Trump - 37
RFK - 13

[Matty]

I haven’t looked at the crosstabs but the toplines look reasonable

13% for RFK in a respected pollster is massive news.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news

[TechbroMBA]

Atlas loves RFK now!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Atlas loves RFK now!

Trump isn't up two but it's a poll from a major Network that finally has Biden ahead

[dspNY]

Interesting poll. The warning sign for Biden is that most of RFK Jr's current support won't vote for RFK Jr when push comes to shove so NBC's poll projects that most of those voters go to Trump in the end.

The warning signs for Trump is Biden having a lot of room to grow with the groups he needs to win the election.

African-Americans go 71-13 for Biden in the poll. It's likely that a vast majority of the 14% undecided were Biden voters that will come back to him in the end.

Latinos go 49-39 for Biden. This means Biden is already regaining some standing with Latinos as a lot of the polling screens had the candidates even. The trend is favoring him to get to a 15 or 20 point margin by Election Day.

Young voters go 44-43 for Biden. I can't see a universe where the youth vote is even; that Harvard poll had Biden up 19 with likely youth voters.

Interest in the election is only at 64%. This means the higher propensity voters which favor Biden according to most polling screens will show up. I believe this is an RV poll so a LV poll with these numbers probably has Biden leading. I also suspect a few of the RFK Jr voters might not vote in the end.

So summing it up the poll is a mixed bag for Biden and Trump. RFK Jr won't get 13% on election day and Trump looks poised to get most of those voters (bad for Biden). Most of the undecideds in the crosstabs mentioned above are certainly Biden voters who haven't coalesced around Biden yet (good for Biden).

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

I think this finally proves that Trump, not Biden, was always going to be hurt by RFK Jr.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think this finally proves that Trump, not Biden, was always going to be hurt by RFK Jr.

Well, one poll doesn't prove anything.  You can take your pick of results: some show RFK hurts Trump more, some show Biden more, some say he affects both of them about the same.  In the end I suspect he'll pull a little more from Trump than Biden, but not overwhelmingly so.

[RI]

I think this finally proves that Trump, not Biden, was always going to be hurt by RFK Jr.

Well, one poll doesn't prove anything.  You can take your pick of results: some show RFK hurts Trump more, some show Biden more, some say he affects both of them about the same.  In the end I suspect he'll pull a little more from Trump than Biden, but not overwhelmingly so.

Emerson's crosstabs usually show RFK votes breaking 60-40 for Trump when pushed. That seems like a reasonable breakdown to me.

[quesaisje]

The split that we see in RFK Jr. voters now might not be that close to the split that we see on election day, especially if his eventual vote share is in the low single digits nationally.

The clean head-to-head numbers are more telling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

RFK is only on the ballot in AZ, NV and MI and NC, GA he isn't on the ballot in PA and WI so his vote doesn't matter in PA and WI

[Lief 🗽]

Biden gaining in the polls as the racial crosstabs become less ridiculous... interesting... who could have predicted... wow

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Good news

Mate. You’re losing.

[Harlow]

RFK is only on the ballot in AZ, NV and MI and NC, GA he isn't on the ballot in PA and WI so his vote doesn't matter in PA and WI

He has until August to get ballot access in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and the latter has automatic write-in access. It should be assumed, based on his current success rate, that he'll be on the ballot in both.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Good news

Mate. You’re losing.

Mate it's not votes it's a poll

[Eraserhead]

Of course RFK is gonna take more from Trump. The good news for Trump is that he isn't gonna sniff that percentage.

[Eraserhead]

Interesting poll. The warning sign for Biden is that most of RFK Jr's current support won't vote for RFK Jr when push comes to shove so NBC's poll projects that most of those voters go to Trump in the end.

The warning signs for Trump is Biden having a lot of room to grow with the groups he needs to win the election.

African-Americans go 71-13 for Biden in the poll. It's likely that a vast majority of the 14% undecided were Biden voters that will come back to him in the end.

Latinos go 49-39 for Biden. This means Biden is already regaining some standing with Latinos as a lot of the polling screens had the candidates even. The trend is favoring him to get to a 15 or 20 point margin by Election Day.

Young voters go 44-43 for Biden. I can't see a universe where the youth vote is even; that Harvard poll had Biden up 19 with likely youth voters.

Interest in the election is only at 64%. This means the higher propensity voters which favor Biden according to most polling screens will show up. I believe this is an RV poll so a LV poll with these numbers probably has Biden leading. I also suspect a few of the RFK Jr voters might not vote in the end.

So summing it up the poll is a mixed bag for Biden and Trump. RFK Jr won't get 13% on election day and Trump looks poised to get most of those voters (bad for Biden). Most of the undecideds in the crosstabs mentioned above are certainly Biden voters who haven't coalesced around Biden yet (good for Biden).

Yeah I think Biden wins the popular vote in the end. Probably not by much though.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, this thing is kind of parody lol

2020 & 2022 voters: Biden +9
2020 & 2022 nonvoters: Trump +22

https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1782127046572868010

If you have not voted in the last 2 general elections, including the highest turnout in a century, then something tells me you're probably not likely to vote this year.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Trump 46, Biden 44, and RFK and others fighting over the remaining 10% is a lot more realistic than RFK at 13 and both Trump and Biden under 40.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/OpinionToday/status/1783601190267417057

[GAinDC]

https://twitter.com/OpinionToday/status/1783601190267417057

wow, interesting stat

This flies in the face of the idea that nearly all voters have made up their minds and it's just a turnout battle