Mason Dixon: NC Trump +6

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1781263497201901578

[2016]

@jaichind,
That's several Polls in a row now showing Trump with a lead in North Carolina from anywhere between 4-6 Points.

Trump looks solid in NC and it also tells us that the Overall National Political Environment is not as favorable to Democrats as it was in 2020.

Mason-Dixon is one of the few good State Pollsters left in the Country.

Democrats need a Mini-Wave I think to flip NC!

[jaichind]

This poll might be good news for Trump for GA but does not tell us much about the Midwest where the election will be decided

[2016]

This poll might be good news for Trump for GA but does not tell us much about the Midwest where the election will be decided

All what I am saying is that Bidens Chances in his Insurance Policy States in the Sunbelt with maybe the Exception of Arizona are dwindling.

I am with you that the Election will be decided in the Midwest BUT because of the Census & Reappointment Biden starts at 303-235 so the Midwest is no longer be enough for him to win. He needs to have either NV or AZ as you can see here. Because of the District Lines that were redrawn in Nebraska-2 many expect that it will go to Trump this time.

[dspNY]

Probably the best poll for Trump since Biden’s SOTU. Most NC polls since March have Trump leading within the MOR

[Sir Mohamed]

Tilt or Lean R.

I don't think NC while significantly shift to the right, but flipping it is probably harder than we assume, given that it stubbornly voted R in 2012, 2016 and 2020, despite Dems pumping a ton for ressources into the state. Also worth noting polls over the last presidential cycles overestimated Dems. Maybe we see the opposite effect this time around, like MI polling bias in 2020 and then 2022 vice versa.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cygnal already polled this race, you don't have to keep making maps when a new poll comes out we know it's a 303 map

[Tekken_Guy]

The poll was added to RCP and puts NC’s margin even with GA’s.

Funnily enough there are 3 Trump+6 NC polls in the RCP average, and they’re all 49-43.

[2016]

The poll was added to RCP and puts NC’s margin even with GA’s.

Funnily enough there are 3 Trump+6 NC polls in the RCP average, and they’re all 49-43.

Funnily enough that the NC M/D Trump +6 Poll comes on the heels of Governor Roy Cooper saying Biden can win the State. I disagree with that. If Biden couldn't win NC in 2020, when D's had the perfect Political Environment, Biden won't the hell win the State in 2024.

North Carolina & Georgia are slipping away from Biden and the only Sunbelt State he won in 2020 that he has a good shot to win again in 2024 will be Arizona.

Here is my personal Map for 2024:



Biden wins 286-252. 2024 resembles more like 2004 when ironically George W. Bush also got 286 Electoral College Votes. I think Trump takes back Georgia and that 2nd District in Nebraska.

[Sbane]

This poll might be good news for Trump for GA but does not tell us much about the Midwest where the election will be decided

Because of the District Lines that were redrawn in Nebraska-2 many expect that it will go to Trump this time.

It voted for Biden by 6 points. Biden will win it again even if he loses the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users need to take poll with a grain of salt it's not even time to vote and Ds always overperform polls just like they have Trump up six in PA sure Bob