Economist reporter in Michigan: Biden campaign seems very "offline" in real life

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Ground game doesn't matter. Trump overperformed in 2020 because he was an incumbent during a national crisis and voters approved of his handling of the economy. Biden is the opposite.

[DrScholl]

Ground game doesn't matter. Trump overperformed in 2020 because he was an incumbent during a national crisis and voters approved of his handling of the economy. Biden is the opposite.

It matters 100% and anyone who says it doesn't is ing lying. It matters even more when the opposition is flat broke. Biden's campaign is out there talking to people while Trump is trying to scam his supporters to pay his legal bills. Better ground game will win every time.

[GAinDC]

Ground game/door knocking just doesn't matter in presidential elections, though.  In a special election or primary, it can be decisive, but in a presidential GE, almost all of it is a waste of time and money.  

President Romney says hello. Obama's ground game was far superior to Romney's and played a huge role in his victory

Obama's 2012 campaign was arguably the best run campaign of the 21st century so far and was truly stunning in hindsight. While Romney was trying to appeal to swing voters and moderates, Obama had a lazer focused operation focused on juicing black and hispanic turnout in specific urban cores and getting out millions of low-prospenity voters. The advantage with this meant there was less ground to cover, and they could specifically optimize their messaging and ground game to each individual county. The Romney team was shocked, because they won independents, but the nonwhite % of the electorate increased from 2008 sealing up their defeat. What Obama did in Ohio 2012 is probably one of the most impressive wins of all time.

Neither Trump or Biden will be able to do such a thing anymore since the electoral calculus has changed. Biden's base is already much more high prospentity and he is losing significant ground with minority voters. Trump's base is spread out across thousands of rural counties so it's much harder to microtarget everything like Obama was able to do.

So we’re just treating the “Trump is surging with minority voters” meme as fact now? Give me a break!

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ground game/door knocking just doesn't matter in presidential elections, though.  In a special election or primary, it can be decisive, but in a presidential GE, almost all of it is a waste of time and money.  

In these more, unprecedented, polarized times turnout is mattering more than persuasion.

Ground game doesn't matter. Trump overperformed in 2020 because he was an incumbent during a national crisis and voters approved of his handling of the economy. Biden is the opposite.

It's possible that 2020 was as close as it was because Trump and the GOP put more into ground game due to not caring about COVID as much as Democrats. The reverse seemed true in 2022, with Democrats learning from 2020, and I don't see how thst couldn't help defy polls again this year. As others have mentioned.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Ground game doesn't matter. Trump overperformed in 2020 because he was an incumbent during a national crisis and voters approved of his handling of the economy. Biden is the opposite.

If Biden’s ground game was bad you would say the opposite.

[wbrocks67]

Ground game/door knocking just doesn't matter in presidential elections, though.  In a special election or primary, it can be decisive, but in a presidential GE, almost all of it is a waste of time and money.  

President Romney says hello. Obama's ground game was far superior to Romney's and played a huge role in his victory

Obama's 2012 campaign was arguably the best run campaign of the 21st century so far and was truly stunning in hindsight. While Romney was trying to appeal to swing voters and moderates, Obama had a lazer focused operation focused on juicing black and hispanic turnout in specific urban cores and getting out millions of low-prospenity voters. The advantage with this meant there was less ground to cover, and they could specifically optimize their messaging and ground game to each individual county. The Romney team was shocked, because they won independents, but the nonwhite % of the electorate increased from 2008 sealing up their defeat. What Obama did in Ohio 2012 is probably one of the most impressive wins of all time.

Neither Trump or Biden will be able to do such a thing anymore since the electoral calculus has changed. Biden's base is already much more high prospentity and he is losing significant ground with minority voters. Trump's base is spread out across thousands of rural counties so it's much harder to microtarget everything like Obama was able to do.

no real proof of that outside of crosstabs, but sure

[DaleCooper]

Ground game/door knocking just doesn't matter in presidential elections, though.  In a special election or primary, it can be decisive, but in a presidential GE, almost all of it is a waste of time and money.  

President Romney says hello. Obama's ground game was far superior to Romney's and played a huge role in his victory

Obama's 2012 campaign was arguably the best run campaign of the 21st century so far and was truly stunning in hindsight. While Romney was trying to appeal to swing voters and moderates, Obama had a lazer focused operation focused on juicing black and hispanic turnout in specific urban cores and getting out millions of low-prospenity voters. The advantage with this meant there was less ground to cover, and they could specifically optimize their messaging and ground game to each individual county. The Romney team was shocked, because they won independents, but the nonwhite % of the electorate increased from 2008 sealing up their defeat. What Obama did in Ohio 2012 is probably one of the most impressive wins of all time.

Neither Trump or Biden will be able to do such a thing anymore since the electoral calculus has changed. Biden's base is already much more high prospentity and he is losing significant ground with minority voters. Trump's base is spread out across thousands of rural counties so it's much harder to microtarget everything like Obama was able to do.

Obama did pretty well when he was on the ballot but his "strategy" basically destroyed the entire Democratic Party nationwide for damn near a decade. Unless literally all you care about is the presidency then you shouldn't want anything to do with his way of doing things.

[quesaisje]

It's completely tone deaf to stay door knocking doesn't matter
 

I have literally done it in the distant past.  Was clear it net turned people off!

For local office primaries it is incredibly effective. I’m not sure about a national general election.

I think the ground-level organizing depends on reaching voters from within their circle of trust. If a candidate running for local office shows up at my door, I will listen to them. I might even care about what they say about a candidate running for federal office.

If it's someone I know from the community, I won't be quite as interested in a conversation, but I will at least listen to them and appreciate the reminder that an election is coming.

If it's some random volunteer from several counties away, they get the same treatment as JWs. Thank you, but no thanks, have a nice day, get off of my porch.

[The Mikado]

Door knocking matters in local races because door knocking's main utility is to convince people already inclined to vote for you to actually vote, which in some city council race where turnout's going to be 12% getting your voters to actually vote is essentially the entire battle. It's much less useful as a persuasion tool than it is as a turnout tool (literally down to "oh yeah, there's an election Tuesday" for people who have no clue about it).

That's not really a factor in a modern Presidential election. In an election where 60%+ of the electorate is voting rather than 12%, all the low hanging fruit for mobilization is voting and you're either left with persuasion targets (and people just don't want to talk to strangers about politics anymore) or persuading hardcore plugged out people to vote, which is possible but hard and not really something that total strangers are effective at.

Of all types of elections, Presidential general elections are clearly the ones where field is least useful. (Presidential primaries are a very different story because turnout is much lower and the "reminding someone who already basically agrees with you that there's an election on Tuesday" factor comes back into play)

[wbrocks67]

Door knocking matters in local races because door knocking's main utility is to convince people already inclined to vote for you to actually vote, which in some city council race where turnout's going to be 12% getting your voters to actually vote is essentially the entire battle. It's much less useful as a persuasion tool than it is as a turnout tool (literally down to "oh yeah, there's an election Tuesday" for people who have no clue about it).

That's not really a factor in a modern Presidential election. In an election where 60%+ of the electorate is voting rather than 12%, all the low hanging fruit for mobilization is voting and you're either left with persuasion targets (and people just don't want to talk to strangers about politics anymore) or persuading hardcore plugged out people to vote, which is possible but hard and not really something that total strangers are effective at.

Of all types of elections, Presidential general elections are clearly the ones where field is least useful. (Presidential primaries are a very different story because turnout is much lower and the "reminding someone who already basically agrees with you that there's an election on Tuesday" factor comes back into play)

Sorry but hard disagree again. There's just no way you can justify door knocking and canvassing as a bad thing or unhelpful. It's always helpful. Whether it's persuasion, just letting people know, reminding them, etc. I remember many people in 2022, in an election where PA had 5.2M turn out, I came across numerous people canvassing who either weren't sure if they were going to vote, loved the reminder, or even had questions about returning their mail ballot, etc. It's *always* useful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's be real here MI has an R bias anyways, so MI polls showing Trump ahead isn't surprising, but their best candidate Craig left the race and Slotkin is beating Mejer and Rogers. That's why Biden is gonna win MI, but MI always had an R bias

[Mr. Smith]

Ground game doesn't matter. Trump overperformed in 2020 because he was an incumbent during a national crisis and voters approved of his handling of the economy. Biden is the opposite.

It matters 100% and anyone who says it doesn't is ing lying. It matters even more when the opposition is flat broke. Biden's campaign is out there talking to people while Trump is trying to scam his supporters to pay his legal bills. Better ground game will win every time.

 The Media gave Trump more than enough free airtime to get everything across to voters, and it appears to be happening again.

And if that weren't proof, 2020 Primaries are proof as Biden infamously had no ground game at all, yet still ran clean through Super Tuesday.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

As a Bernie supporter in 2020 that was very extremely online at the time and blindsided by Biden's performance on super tuesday after I'd written him off for dead I think this is a hidden strength of his.

[TransfemmeGoreVidal]

Ground game/door knocking just doesn't matter in presidential elections, though.  In a special election or primary, it can be decisive, but in a presidential GE, almost all of it is a waste of time and money. 

This is quite literally 100% false. You could probably attribute *at least* 50% of Trump's overperformance in 2020 due to the fact that Republicans canvassed and door-knocked during the pandemic that fall in-person and Democrats largely did not.

Yeah, people underestimate how much that's going to change the dynamic this time around.