Percent Change in Trump Votes Between 2020 and 2024 Primaries

[RI]

Not sure if there's anything to be gleaned from the raw changes, but there may be something in the intra-state variation. Population changes, primary calendar changes, and changes in competition levels play a role here (at least the 2020 PPE was almost uniformly non-competitive), too, but there seems to be more going on than that. Trump seems to be holding up better in Hispanic areas and doing okay in the Black Belt. He also seems to be doing relatively well in exurbs and poorly in educated suburbs/smaller metros while urban cores seem to be a mixed bag.



Thoughts?

[GAinDC]

I wonder what explains the big drop off for Trump in Georgia

[RI]

I wonder what explains the big drop off for Trump in Georgia

My guess would be that the 2020 primary was a combined presidential primary and general election primary in June, whereas 2024 was only a presidential primary in March.

[Ljube]

More evidence that Trump is gaining with the Hispanics, the African Americans and the working class, and losing support with the white educated people.

Or in other words, he is gaining ground with the poor and losing support of the rich.