June 10 primaries coverage thread

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

In South Carolina Perry Gustafson, who narrowly defeated Shaheen in 2020, got absolutely whaloped in her primary. She got only 18% of the vote largely for not towing the party’s hard right line on a complete abortion ban.

What’s interesting in that Katrina Shealy, who also opposed the total ban, coming in first with 40% and is headed to a runoff against Carlisle Warren.

The last “sister Senator” who opposed the total ban, Sandy Senn, appears to have lost her primary to Rep. Leber by just 31 votes or .4%.

In other news Dick Harpootlian, wife of Slovenian Ambassador Jamie Harpootlian and former state party chair appears to have lost to Rep. Russell Ott, a more conservative candidate.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Nevada-03 is likely going to nominate Drew Johnson - a socially moderate, fiscal hawk Republican who has very, very different campaign priorities, messaging, and marketing than most Republicans nowadays. Honestly if it weren't for the "cutting government waste" stuff, he seems pretty down the middle and without reading up on him he might even come across as a Democrat. No mention of standing with President Trump or any culture was BS on his issues page. Kind of refreshing, seems like he actually knows how to run a swing district campaign as a Republican. Makes me a bit more nervous for Susie Lee, but at the same time it would be nice if some elected Republicans weren't completely crazy.

To speak more on his campaign aesthetics - his website uses teal and purple - something you almost only see Democrats do. Republicans hardly ever stray from red white and blue, all caps tough guy fonts, etc. Meanwhile this guy is a clean shaven millennial with a wife and two dogs (no kids), but the dog bios are included in his "meet the family" page. Truly bizarre to see a Republican choosing these kinds of campaign aesthetics in this day and age.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

ME-1 R: Russell
ND Superintendent: Baesler/Heitkamp
NV SEN D: Rosen
NV SEN R: Brown
NV-2 R: Amodei
NV-3 D: Lee
NV-4 D: Horsford

Uncalled:

SC-4 R
NV-1 R
NV-3 R
NV-4 R

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Nevada-03 is likely going to nominate Drew Johnson - a socially moderate, fiscal hawk Republican who has very, very different campaign priorities, messaging, and marketing than most Republicans nowadays. Honestly if it weren't for the "cutting government waste" stuff, he seems pretty down the middle and without reading up on him he might even come across as a Democrat. No mention of standing with President Trump or any culture was BS on his issues page. Kind of refreshing, seems like he actually knows how to run a swing district campaign as a Republican. Makes me a bit more nervous for Susie Lee, but at the same time it would be nice if some elected Republicans weren't completely crazy.

at the same time, that might mean Trumpist Rs refuse to give him anything and end up throwing this district away.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

SC-04 is done counting and Timmons has survived by a 4-point margin. He lost Greenville County 52-48 but got a 20-point margin out of Spartanburg.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

SC-03 seems like a copy of GA-10.

Extremist right wing nut job whose a Trump acolyte (who is also black) tries to coasting on nuttery and Trump’s endorsements in a crowded field against all kinds of local politicians, and looses in the runoff.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

SC-4 R: Timmons
NV-1 R: Robertson
NV-3 R: Johnson

Uncalled:

NV-4 R

[Flats the Flounder]

Nevada-03 is likely going to nominate Drew Johnson - a socially moderate, fiscal hawk Republican who has very, very different campaign priorities, messaging, and marketing than most Republicans nowadays. Honestly if it weren't for the "cutting government waste" stuff, he seems pretty down the middle and without reading up on him he might even come across as a Democrat. No mention of standing with President Trump or any culture was BS on his issues page. Kind of refreshing, seems like he actually knows how to run a swing district campaign as a Republican. Makes me a bit more nervous for Susie Lee, but at the same time it would be nice if some elected Republicans weren't completely crazy.

To speak more on his campaign aesthetics - his website uses teal and purple - something you almost only see Democrats do. Republicans hardly ever stray from red white and blue, all caps tough guy fonts, etc. Meanwhile this guy is a clean shaven millennial with a wife and two dogs (no kids), but the dog bios are included in his "meet the family" page. Truly bizarre to see a Republican choosing these kinds of campaign aesthetics in this day and age.

I agree, Johnson seems like a strong candidate. Sam Brown does, too, for that matter. The NV GOP is definitely shaping up to be one of the more competent swing-state Republican parties this cycle, not to mention being one of the more sensible ones, too.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

I know we aren’t meant to glean insights from primaries, but Nevada Republicans losing their advantage of 50000 primary voters from 2022, with contested statewide primaries against a foregone conclusion Dem race, feels like it should be a red flag for R’s. Especially when Dems still won in 2022 despite lopsided primary turnout.

[Mr. Matt]

North Dakota has effectively voted to ban 80+ year olds from being elected to Congress from that state.

I don’t think it’ll stand. The Supreme Court doesn’t like states added on requirements to federal office

Ironically there was a Congressional primary in SC where a GOP candidate was removed from the ballot because the state Republican Party had a rule that you have to live in the Congressional district to make the ballot. The guy sued in federal court (since Congreesscritters only have to live in the state only) but was thrown out.

link 1 link 2

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Most of SC-3 is in and Mark Burns, while having made the runoff, isn't even at a third of the vote. Pretty pathetic numbers for the Trump endorsed candidate.

He gives me Vernon Jones 2.0 vibes and I'm saying Biggs wins the runoff.

Stewart Jones is much much more aligned with Burns and basically all his voters will go to Burns. That's already 51% of the vote there. This isn't Georgia.

You need to stop underestimating more MAGA candidates, you did it with Spartz, Mace and now with Boebert too. GOP primary voters just aren't turned off by that.

Jones might be more conservative, but he's also much more politically connected, which fits Biggs well because she's a former staffer for Graham and endorsed by McMaster. I'd say don't count out Biggs. I won't like her as my rep, but at least she seems unlikely to join the MTG-level-insane caucus like Burns would.

Also, maybe you should look into Burns, as someone who's trans, I don't think you'd like what he has to say about you.

Oh I've looked into this race. Biggs is endorsed by the Freedom Caucus types like Bob Good, Thomas Massie and Ralph Norman, I'm pretty sure he indicated he supporting vacating McCarthy too. I'm pretty sure he'll also endorse Burns.
Burns and Jones are way closer together than Biggs and Jones.
Remember, Jones is part of the SC freedom caucus, which has been primarying out McMaster allies in the state legislature, so while he's "politically connected", he's political connected to people who are fiercely opposed to the people Biggs is connected to.

[Horus]

Most of SC-3 is in and Mark Burns, while having made the runoff, isn't even at a third of the vote. Pretty pathetic numbers for the Trump endorsed candidate.

He gives me Vernon Jones 2.0 vibes and I'm saying Biggs wins the runoff.

Stewart Jones is much much more aligned with Burns and basically all his voters will go to Burns. That's already 51% of the vote there. This isn't Georgia.

You need to stop underestimating more MAGA candidates, you did it with Spartz, Mace and now with Boebert too. GOP primary voters just aren't turned off by that.

Jones might be more conservative, but he's also much more politically connected, which fits Biggs well because she's a former staffer for Graham and endorsed by McMaster. I'd say don't count out Biggs. I won't like her as my rep, but at least she seems unlikely to join the MTG-level-insane caucus like Burns would.

Also, maybe you should look into Burns, as someone who's trans, I don't think you'd like what he has to say about you.

The poster you are talking to has advertised herself as a future trad wife. While she may be pro-trans, I doubt she is pro-gay. This is what I mean when I say that a lot of TQIA+ stuff can be socially conservative and gender essentialist.

There was a case in Tunisia a few years ago of a trans woman outing a bunch of gay men. Society generally supported her since she fits into socially conservative gender norms, but not the gay men at all. I firmly believe this is the future Shaula wants.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah as it stands right now, 133k for Ds and 148k for Rs in the senate primary.

Ds got 146k in 2022 and Rs got 202k. Major misfire for Rs given that Ds also had no competitive races

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NV-4 R: Lee

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nevada-03 is likely going to nominate Drew Johnson - a socially moderate, fiscal hawk Republican who has very, very different campaign priorities, messaging, and marketing than most Republicans nowadays. Honestly if it weren't for the "cutting government waste" stuff, he seems pretty down the middle and without reading up on him he might even come across as a Democrat. No mention of standing with President Trump or any culture was BS on his issues page. Kind of refreshing, seems like he actually knows how to run a swing district campaign as a Republican. Makes me a bit more nervous for Susie Lee, but at the same time it would be nice if some elected Republicans weren't completely crazy.

To speak more on his campaign aesthetics - his website uses teal and purple - something you almost only see Democrats do. Republicans hardly ever stray from red white and blue, all caps tough guy fonts, etc. Meanwhile this guy is a clean shaven millennial with a wife and two dogs (no kids), but the dog bios are included in his "meet the family" page. Truly bizarre to see a Republican choosing these kinds of campaign aesthetics in this day and age.

I agree, Johnson seems like a strong candidate. Sam Brown does, too, for that matter. The NV GOP is definitely shaping up to be one of the more competent swing-state Republican parties this cycle, not to mention being one of the more sensible ones, too.

Sam Brown is good aesthetically(disabled vet inspiring story) but ideologically is very right wing

[Spectator]

Nevada-03 is likely going to nominate Drew Johnson - a socially moderate, fiscal hawk Republican who has very, very different campaign priorities, messaging, and marketing than most Republicans nowadays. Honestly if it weren't for the "cutting government waste" stuff, he seems pretty down the middle and without reading up on him he might even come across as a Democrat. No mention of standing with President Trump or any culture was BS on his issues page. Kind of refreshing, seems like he actually knows how to run a swing district campaign as a Republican. Makes me a bit more nervous for Susie Lee, but at the same time it would be nice if some elected Republicans weren't completely crazy.

To speak more on his campaign aesthetics - his website uses teal and purple - something you almost only see Democrats do. Republicans hardly ever stray from red white and blue, all caps tough guy fonts, etc. Meanwhile this guy is a clean shaven millennial with a wife and two dogs (no kids), but the dog bios are included in his "meet the family" page. Truly bizarre to see a Republican choosing these kinds of campaign aesthetics in this day and age.

I agree, Johnson seems like a strong candidate. Sam Brown does, too, for that matter. The NV GOP is definitely shaping up to be one of the more competent swing-state Republican parties this cycle, not to mention being one of the more sensible ones, too.

Sam Brown is good aesthetically(disabled vet inspiring story) but ideologically is very right wing

His living and political activism in Texas as recently as like 5 years ago is arguably his biggest vulnerability. Comes across as very power-hungry. Sam Brown is the type that should have run for something like Secretary of State or another row office in 2022 and then bide his time for a gubernatorial or Senate run. There is very much a thing as “too young”

[wbrocks67]

Nevermind - 2022 totals were actually higher. NYT had outdated results of course that they never updated. With counting >95% in:

Dems:
2022: Masto 90.9%, Others 9.1% / Total: 175,740
2024: Rosen 91.5%, Others 8.5% / Total: 148,434

Reps:
2022: Laxalt 55.9%, Others 44.1% / Total: 228,488
2024: Brown 59.9%, Others 40.1% / Total: 160,411

Dems, despite not having any competitive races, were at 85% of 2022 turnout. GOP was only at 70%.

[wbrocks67]

A few more votes have come in

Dems > 154k (2022: 176k)
Reps > 166k (2022: 228k)

Dems at about 90% of 2022 turnout, Reps still short at about 75%.

It also appears that Dems may have still outvoted Reps in Washoe County which is interesting.

Dems outvoted Reps 54-46 in Clark.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A few more votes have come in

Dems > 154k (2022: 176k)
Reps > 166k (2022: 228k)

Dems at about 90% of 2022 turnout, Reps still short at about 75%.

It also appears that Dems may have still outvoted Reps in Washoe County which is interesting.

Dems outvoted Reps 54-46 in Clark.

Well, Sisolak proved that Dems can win Clark and Reno and still lose statewide: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Nevada_gubernatorial_election