Times/Siena: Trump +5

[Sir Mohamed]

6 pages and more to come? Never change Atlas, never change. And even SL is banned.

That said, we've seen several brutal polls over the last few months. If you scroll through this board, there's barely something with "Biden + ...", and if so, it's safe blue states. Now I don't think Trump will come close to winning the NPV by 5 pts, if at all, the overall picture is concerning. I'm not convinced this is even about Trump's strength, but more about Biden's apparent weakness. No matter how good we think he governed, as of today it seems to be the case that voters don't want him to be prez anymore.

Biden isn't weak we thought we would have trials on insurrection there has been zero trials, it's as though they haven't indicted Trump yet . That's what wrong no criminal conviction on the indictments


I agree with most of your statements but Lean R is factual incorrectly, it's a MOE Lean of 2/5 pts

That we don't already have trials is certainly outrageous, but I would argue there's something going wrong if Biden needs Trump on active trial or convicted to win. If anything, the difference between no trials or conviction of Trump should be either moderate Biden win or landslide Biden win.

[wbrocks67]

6 pages and more to come? Never change Atlas, never change. And even SL is banned.

That said, we've seen several brutal polls over the last few months. If you scroll through this board, there's barely something with "Biden + ...", and if so, it's safe blue states. Now I don't think Trump will come close to winning the NPV by 5 pts, if at all, the overall picture is concerning. I'm not convinced this is even about Trump's strength, but more about Biden's apparent weakness. No matter how good we think he governed, as of today it seems to be the case that voters don't want him to be prez anymore.

It feels like around September or so the polling picture shifted from showing a toss-up race to a Lean R one.

The same time that Trump's favorability suddenly turned around too. It's almost as if there's a correlation here that so many people still just don't want to see or admit.

[kwabbit]

6 pages and more to come? Never change Atlas, never change. And even SL is banned.

That said, we've seen several brutal polls over the last few months. If you scroll through this board, there's barely something with "Biden + ...", and if so, it's safe blue states. Now I don't think Trump will come close to winning the NPV by 5 pts, if at all, the overall picture is concerning. I'm not convinced this is even about Trump's strength, but more about Biden's apparent weakness. No matter how good we think he governed, as of today it seems to be the case that voters don't want him to be prez anymore.

It feels like around September or so the polling picture shifted from showing a toss-up race to a Lean R one.

The same time that Trump's favorability suddenly turned around too. It's almost as if there's a correlation here that so many people still just don't want to see or admit.

Non-response bias is supported by some polls but not most. NYT had a 2020 recall of 53-41. There might some other weird stuff going on that causes a Trump +5 result with that, but it's not non-response. No pollsters really think non-response would affect Democrats and find the idea that Dems would respond to polls at a lower rate to be laughable. The obvious source of polling error would be bad sampling among non-Whites and young people.

Trump's increasing favorability is bizarre but makes some sense given the issue environment now. Immigration is the most salient issue right now and in the views of most Americans he has been proven right. Once unpopular Trumpian policies are now favored by clear majorities. On I/P, Trump got good press during his Presidency with the Abraham Accords. Even though his response to the current war would probably be unhinged, the simple fact is that it didn't happen under him and happened under Biden. Trump has pretty good retrospective approval now and that will naturally drive up his favorability.

[wbrocks67]

6 pages and more to come? Never change Atlas, never change. And even SL is banned.

That said, we've seen several brutal polls over the last few months. If you scroll through this board, there's barely something with "Biden + ...", and if so, it's safe blue states. Now I don't think Trump will come close to winning the NPV by 5 pts, if at all, the overall picture is concerning. I'm not convinced this is even about Trump's strength, but more about Biden's apparent weakness. No matter how good we think he governed, as of today it seems to be the case that voters don't want him to be prez anymore.

It feels like around September or so the polling picture shifted from showing a toss-up race to a Lean R one.

The same time that Trump's favorability suddenly turned around too. It's almost as if there's a correlation here that so many people still just don't want to see or admit.

Non-response bias is supported by some polls but not most. NYT had a 2020 recall of 53-41. There might some other weird stuff going on that causes a Trump +5 result with that, but it's not non-response. No pollsters really think non-response would affect Democrats and find the idea that Dems would respond to polls at a lower rate to be laughable. The obvious source of polling error would be bad sampling among non-Whites and young people.

Trump's increasing favorability is bizarre but makes some sense given the issue environment now. Immigration is the most salient issue right now and in the views of most Americans he has been proven right. Once unpopular Trumpian policies are now favored by clear majorities. On I/P, Trump got good press during his Presidency with the Abraham Accords. Even though his response to the current war would probably be unhinged, the simple fact is that it didn't happen under him and happened under Biden. Trump has pretty good retrospective approval now and that will naturally drive up his favorability.

I mean, you can't ignore your first paragraph though. If the 2020 recall is Biden +12 and the result is Trump +5, that's an astronomical defection from Biden, one that is not supported by polls at all. Yes, there is defection - but not at that amount. Given the party ID of the '2020 non voters', and the fact that they represent nearly *20%* in that poll gives me a lot of pause, in that at least for the NYT/Siena poll, it appears that nonresponse is still an issue - but for Democrats. Seems likely they're specifically getting too many Ds/Biden voters to answer their call, and not even Trump voters/GOPers, given the recall vote, so they have to do more weighting of specific groups (likely nonwhites given the context) to make up for it.

Then you have stuff like the CBS poll where they're getting insane excitement from GOP and minimal excitement from Dems, which also imo is a byproduct of the nonresponse around the primary - GOP voters are excited b/c they have an active primary and a lot of them are voting right now - Dems are voting, but obv not as many as GOP given the muted Dem primary.

This isn't to say that all of these results are *wrong* but I think it's fair to present different situations that could be very possible with some of these results. I don't think it's right to dismiss them out of hand.

As for Trumps newfound popularity, maybe that stuff is worth 1 or 2%, but not the rates that we're seeing. It just seems a little too coincidental that the same time polls started to shift in general - when the GOP primary heated up and GOP voters were essentially awakened - is when this started happening. There were different bouts in 2021 and 2022 where things Trump was more 'for' were in the news, and they didn't make him more popular back then. If anything, you'd think this 'longing' for Trump's economy would've been most pronounced back in 2022 when inflation and the economy were at their lowest point. However, Trump was monstrously unpopular in 2022.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

As the economy keeps getting worse, I am expecting the kinds of shift in this poll. First Tie, then Trump +2, and now Trump +5. It isn’t about Trump getting more popular; indeed this poll shows Trump’s popularity is the same as 4 years ago. Biden is simply 30 points less popular than in 2020.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As the economy keeps getting worse, I am expecting the kinds of shift in this poll. First Tie, then Trump +2, and now Trump +5. It isn’t about Trump getting more popular; indeed this poll shows Trump’s popularity is the same as 4 years ago. Biden is simply 30 points less popular than in 2020.

Lol we are under Trump tax cuts once Biden gets reelected they will be repealed for richest Americans


Biden is ahead in 2 polls today

[All Along The Watchtower]

Just accept defeat and prepare for the 2028 primary.

This is not how campaigns in a democracy work.

Do you want Trump to win? Because if not, why the f—k would you say something like this in March of the election year?!

Perhaps you don’t like democracy and elections. You’d certainly not be alone on this forum these days. Bunch of Doomers on one side and giddy creeps on the other. Not a healthy place for discussion, folks!

[oldtimer]

Just accept defeat and prepare for the 2028 primary.

This is not how campaigns in a democracy work.

Do you want Trump to win? Because if not, why the f—k would you say something like this in March of the election year?!

Perhaps you don’t like democracy and elections. You’d certainly not be alone on this forum these days. Bunch of Doomers on one side and giddy creeps on the other. Not a healthy place for discussion, folks!

Sounds like a John Kerry 2004 primary voter:

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

I supported Dean because I knew Kerry had no chance, once Kerry got it there was no point.

I accepted that Bush was going to win and I looked to the future for a possible Gore return.

Since it was so obvious Bush was going to destroy everything since day 1, I thought Gore might do a Nixon since election night 2000.

Of course Kerry supporters never accepted reality until Bush won the popular vote too.

Same advice for Republican Romney supporters in 2012, there was like this website called race42012 published by Romney fans, and I liked trolling them with obvious Kerry comparisons.

It was fun on election night 2012, far more than 2004, because although correct that time I was supporting the winning side.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/DavidCornDC/status/1764410125802983626

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1764696151654035900

[Tekken_Guy]

With my post, this is now the most replied to topic in this subforum, beating the NYT swing state polls from November.