2020: President Ted Cruz (R-TX) vs former Vice President Joe Biden (D-DE)

[Medal506]

Ted Cruz ended up beating Trump in the GOP Primary in 2016 and went on to defeat Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine in 2016 while narrowly losing the popular vote by less than a million votes but winning the electoral vote with the same states Trump had plus Virginia and Minnesota giving him 336 electoral college votes. All the same events that happened under Trump happen under Cruz including Covid.

Biden wins the nomination and picks Harris as his VP.

Who wins and what does the map look like?

Cruz/Fiorina vs Biden/Harris

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

If Cruz was the Republican nominee in 2016, he'd certainly lose.

Also, Biden wouldn't be the nominee if a Republican other than Trump won 2016

[Medal506]

If Cruz was the Republican nominee in 2016, he'd certainly lose.

Also, Biden wouldn't be the nominee if a Republican other than Trump won 2016

I think Biden still would have ran in 2020 if Cruz were president and he would still likely win the primary assuming Clinton lost in 2016

[Vice President Christian Man]

If Cruz was the Republican nominee in 2016, he'd certainly lose.

Also, Biden wouldn't be the nominee if a Republican other than Trump won 2016

I think Biden still would have ran in 2020 if Cruz were president and he would still likely win the primary assuming Clinton lost in 2016

Charlottesville was the main reason Biden came out of retirement. Unless Cruz made a similar gaffe or did something else that got the former VP's attention, I doubt Biden would run again.

[Medal506]

If Cruz was the Republican nominee in 2016, he'd certainly lose.

Also, Biden wouldn't be the nominee if a Republican other than Trump won 2016

I think Biden still would have ran in 2020 if Cruz were president and he would still likely win the primary assuming Clinton lost in 2016

Charlottesville was the main reason Biden came out of retirement. Unless Cruz made a similar gaffe or did something else that got the former VP's attention, I doubt Biden would run again.

I don’t think Charlottesville would have happened but I think Biden probably would have ran on the ACA since Cruz probably would have been able to get the Republican congress to pass one of their repeal and replace bills for ObamaCare. Biden probably would have made the entire 2020 race about healthcare at first and then Covid once Covid hit.

[Vice President Christian Man]

[Del Tachi]

(1) Cruz almost certainly lose to Clinton in 2016.
(2) Somehow if Cruz did win, Biden wouldn't run in 2020.  His opponent would probably be Sanders, Warren, or Harris.

Entertaining the hypothetical, my guess would be that Cruz would win (most global incumbents got a good boost from covid) but the map is hard to guess.  Post-2016 trends would look very different without Trump, so a 2020 map where Cruz wins states like CO/VA/NH is a possibility.